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Old 09-18-2012, 11:21 AM  
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
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National Tracking Polls: Romney +6 in Last Week

Strange. I thought all of these Romney gaffes had killed his campaign.

Rasmussen Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 46
Rasmussen This Week: Obama: 45, Romney: 47

Gallup Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 43
Gallup This Week: Obama: 47, Romney: 46

Given the huge pick-ups Romney makes when Likely Voter filters are applied, I'd say the Gallup and Rasmussen numbers are probably close to, if not exactly, the same.

Let's see if Obama gets another bounce from the 47% remark (doubt it, but we'll see) and how quickly that one fades...

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Old 09-25-2012, 10:08 AM   #181
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Did you read my post? The places where early voting has the most nefarious impact are on the elections for offices other than POTUS where challengers are less well known and have poorer funding. It certainly has an impact at the POTUS level too, not on discerning people like me or sheep like you, but on the less committed people among us.
I apologize, but I must point out that you got your labels mixed up. Probably due to the feverish pitch you were throwing your mind numbing bullshit out.
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Old 09-25-2012, 11:00 AM   #182
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Ok. Fair enough and you make a good argument against it. Are you in favor though of early voting via absentee ballot?
I'm in favor of stricter limitations on absentee ballots, but I don't want to disenfranchise people who really have no choice but to be absent from the area on election day or confined to a bed.
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Old 09-25-2012, 11:24 AM   #183
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Because our elections should be about making a case to the people and then letting them decide. Early voting means that some people are voting before the arguments have all been made. For example, some people are voting right now before the first debate has even taken place. It's like letting a jury member cast it's vote whether or not to convict any time after closing arguments begin instead of making them wait until both sides have made their closing arguments.

Early voting favors the incumbent whose case is generally pretty well known and raises the hurdle for challengers who generally have more limited funds and opportunities to get their "new" case in front of the voters. Does the challenger blow his/her wad just before early voting starts or do they save it for the last few weeks before the majority of people will vote knowing that they will be at a big disadvantage with the early voters. This is an even bigger problem for down ticket races than it is for the POTUS race.
Agreed, early voting is a stupid idea. Yes, it has no impact on the hard-core bullet voters, but anyone who is undecided or softly leaning one way should not be voting early unless they really need to vote absentee.

I wont vote early, even if I'm firmly decided in every race on the ballot, until election day because I want the ability to change my mind if the guy I was going to vote for gets caught with a dead hooker or is exposed as someone whose beliefs are radically different from what I thought.

At some point you have to vote and if they succeed in fooling you through early November, so be it, but I'm going to force them to successfully lie if thats what the candidate is doing until the final day.
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Old 09-25-2012, 05:11 PM   #184
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Race Stabilizes in Obama's Favor

Charlie Cook: "Leading Democratic and Republican pollsters and strategists privately say that the Obama lead is around 4 or 5 points and is neither widening nor narrowing. The convention bounces have dissipated, but Romney's negatives remain quite high and are not diminishing. In the Gallup three-week super-samples--almost 10,000 interviews--the percentage of Democrats saying that they will definitely vote has moved up to the point that it is now virtually tied with Republicans."
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Old 09-25-2012, 05:30 PM   #185
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Nate Silver tweeted this hilarious gem today

Quote:
Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
Thinking every poll but Rasmussen is skewed is literally as delusional as believing that 9/11 was a conspiracy.
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Old 09-25-2012, 05:35 PM   #186
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My prediction hasn't changed much since 2 months ago. Only difference is now I think Obama takes Ohio.

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Old 09-25-2012, 05:35 PM   #187
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Nate Silver tweeted this hilarious gem today
There is stupid people like this on this board like TomJay (aka shtsprayer)
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Old 09-25-2012, 05:39 PM   #188
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There is stupid people like this on this board like TomJay (aka shtsprayer)
He's not the only one.
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Old 09-25-2012, 06:09 PM   #189
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I think that I have yet to see a poll favoring a D that wasn't dismissed by the Rs as being biased, improperly weighted, etc. Heard the same in 2008, right before Obama won. Bottom line is that whatever the major pollsters are doing, they are usually pretty damn close most of the time. I don't see what is in it for them to intentionally not shoot for accuracy.
how about, a horse race? It sells better.
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Old 09-25-2012, 06:32 PM   #190
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Because our elections should be about making a case to the people and then letting them decide. Early voting means that some people are voting before the arguments have all been made.
I do kind of like the idea of an Election DAY, but if the argument hasn't been made by now, that's the candidates' fault.
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Old 09-25-2012, 06:48 PM   #191
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
I do kind of like the idea of an Election DAY, but if the argument hasn't been made by now, that's the candidates' fault.
Not me. I'm usually sweating balls and boozed up. That's before i go vote. I probably should chill before I accidently vote for Garfield the Cat as a write in.
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Old 09-25-2012, 09:46 PM   #192
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I guess I'm not seeing the point of this. They are compensating for a perceived oversampling of Democrats by deliberately oversampling Republicans? Isn't that skewed by definition?
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Old 09-25-2012, 10:05 PM   #193
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There is stupid people like this on this board like TomJay (aka shtsprayer)
Shut the **** up you pussy.
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Old 09-25-2012, 10:07 PM   #194
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I guess I'm not seeing the point of this. They are compensating for a perceived oversampling of Democrats by deliberately oversampling Republicans? Isn't that skewed by definition?
You'll find out on November 6th I guess.

Yeah, that's when the blacks riot because they think Barry was supposed to win because of all the distorted polls the moonbats have been promoting.
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Old 09-26-2012, 08:57 AM   #195
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You'll find out on November 6th I guess.

Yeah, that's when the blacks riot because they think Barry was supposed to win because of all the distorted polls the moonbats have been promoting.
How long has unskewedpolls.com been around? I've never heard of them before this year. I'm curious what their success rate has been in picking winners.

I like to judge a polling organization based on its merits, i.e. how successful its predictions are. If you have these numbers, I'd be interested to see them.
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