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Old 09-18-2012, 11:21 AM  
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is online now
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National Tracking Polls: Romney +6 in Last Week

Strange. I thought all of these Romney gaffes had killed his campaign.

Rasmussen Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 46
Rasmussen This Week: Obama: 45, Romney: 47

Gallup Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 43
Gallup This Week: Obama: 47, Romney: 46

Given the huge pick-ups Romney makes when Likely Voter filters are applied, I'd say the Gallup and Rasmussen numbers are probably close to, if not exactly, the same.

Let's see if Obama gets another bounce from the 47% remark (doubt it, but we'll see) and how quickly that one fades...

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Old 09-26-2012, 09:50 AM   #196
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Because our elections should be about making a case to the people and then letting them decide. Early voting means that some people are voting before the arguments have all been made. For example, some people are voting right now before the first debate has even taken place. It's like letting a jury member cast it's vote whether or not to convict any time after closing arguments begin instead of making them wait until both sides have made their closing arguments.

Early voting favors the incumbent whose case is generally pretty well known and raises the hurdle for challengers who generally have more limited funds and opportunities to get their "new" case in front of the voters. Does the challenger blow his/her wad just before early voting starts or do they save it for the last few weeks before the majority of people will vote knowing that they will be at a big disadvantage with the early voters. This is an even bigger problem for down ticket races than it is for the POTUS race.
But this isn't a jury. Juries have specific instructions on elements of certain claims/charges and the burden of proof. By contrast, you cant vote for or against someone for any reason under the sun.

Early voting is also used significantly more by Democrats. Total coincidence, no doubt.
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Old 09-26-2012, 09:53 AM   #197
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Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake View Post
How long has unskewedpolls.com been around? I've never heard of them before this year. I'm curious what their success rate has been in picking winners.

I like to judge a polling organization based on its merits, i.e. how successful its predictions are. If you have these numbers, I'd be interested to see them.
Polls aren't predictions. If you're expecting any of the polls of today to accurately predict the results on the first Tuesday of November, you're going to be disappointed in most cases.
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Old 09-26-2012, 09:57 AM   #198
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Originally Posted by Pittsie View Post
But this isn't a jury. Juries have specific instructions on elements of certain claims/charges and the burden of proof. By contrast, you cant vote for or against someone for any reason under the sun.
It's not a jury? Duh, you don't say. The distinction you describe is completely irrelevant. All of the important characteristics are analogous.

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Originally Posted by Pittsie View Post
Early voting is also used significantly more by Democrats. Total coincidence, no doubt.
I don't know who uses early voting more, so yeah, I guess it's a coincidence if it's even true. What's not a coincidence is the fact that early voting favors the incumbent. That's actually one of the reasons I oppose it.
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Old 09-26-2012, 10:04 AM   #199
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Old 09-26-2012, 10:39 AM   #200
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
It's not a jury? Duh, you don't say. The distinction you describe is completely irrelevant. All of the important characteristics are analogous.
It's not apples and oranges, it's apples and moon rocks. Your analogy is beyond retarded.
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Old 09-26-2012, 10:50 AM   #201
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Originally Posted by Pittsie View Post
It's not apples and oranges, it's apples and moon rocks. Your analogy is beyond retarded.
Only the retarded can't understand my analogy.
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Old 09-26-2012, 10:52 AM   #202
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Only the retarded can't understand my analogy.
There's no argument too specious re vote suppression you won't endorse.
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Old 09-26-2012, 11:00 AM   #203
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Polls aren't predictions. If you're expecting any of the polls of today to accurately predict the results on the first Tuesday of November, you're going to be disappointed in most cases.
Of course not. Polls are just raw data. Plus it's still too far out.

As you get closer to election day though, the poll numbers should reflect the real voting numbers, if it's an accurate poll. Some polls are more accurate than others.
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Old 09-26-2012, 11:17 AM   #204
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Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake View Post
Of course not. Polls are just raw data. Plus it's still too far out.

As you get closer to election day though, the poll numbers should reflect the real voting numbers, if it's an accurate poll. Some polls are more accurate than others.
Right, but as you say, they all change as election day gets closer.
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Old 09-26-2012, 12:21 PM   #205
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Gallup now Obama up by 6 so hopefully all this talk of bs polls subsides.
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Old 09-26-2012, 12:48 PM   #206
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Gallup now Obama up by 6 so hopefully all this talk of bs polls subsides.
Polls have a liberal bias.

/RWNJs
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Old 09-26-2012, 12:53 PM   #207
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Old 09-26-2012, 03:49 PM   #208
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Ghetto the vote!
what does that mean?
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Old 09-26-2012, 04:35 PM   #209
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Gallup now Obama up by 6 so hopefully all this talk of bs polls subsides.
It's become the dogma of the whole Republican party. They are liberal bias polls. Doesnt matter that the Fox News polls are showing the same thing. Just turn the bubble up to full strength.

It's really sad but just a desperate act of a failing campaign. Makes then look horrible. Again, science is wrong. We are right.
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I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 09-26-2012, 04:40 PM   #210
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Originally Posted by Pittsie View Post
Polls have a liberal bias.

/RWNJs
It's not RWNJ's anymore. The Romney campaign cant raise money if the campaign is a lost cause. So they make up some BS story. Say we got the "true" results, dont worry. uhhh Mr. Romney can we see this "true" data? Sorry, its for internal use only but trust us, we have the real data.
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I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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