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Old 09-18-2012, 11:21 AM  
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
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National Tracking Polls: Romney +6 in Last Week

Strange. I thought all of these Romney gaffes had killed his campaign.

Rasmussen Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 46
Rasmussen This Week: Obama: 45, Romney: 47

Gallup Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 43
Gallup This Week: Obama: 47, Romney: 46

Given the huge pick-ups Romney makes when Likely Voter filters are applied, I'd say the Gallup and Rasmussen numbers are probably close to, if not exactly, the same.

Let's see if Obama gets another bounce from the 47% remark (doubt it, but we'll see) and how quickly that one fades...

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Old 09-18-2012, 04:53 PM   #31
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A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds President Obama leads Mitt Romney nationally among likely voters, 50% to 45%.

Up 5 in both Ohio and Florida and up 7 in Virginia
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Old 09-18-2012, 05:04 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds President Obama leads Mitt Romney nationally among likely voters, 50% to 45%.

Up 5 in both Ohio and Florida and up 7 in Virginia
Like I said, if you have a poll that is constructed from +7 Dems then a +5 Obama is probably about right. Unfortunately, I couldn't find the vote breakdown by party affiliation to see how they're each doing with IND.

ON EDIT: Also the dates on this are 9-12/9-16, so again it reflects a minimal amount of the movement that Gallup and Rasmussen started showing last Friday.
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Old 09-18-2012, 05:30 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Strange. I thought all of these Romney gaffes had killed his campaign.

Rasmussen Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 46
Rasmussen This Week: Obama: 45, Romney: 47

Gallup Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 43
Gallup This Week: Obama: 47, Romney: 46

Given the huge pick-ups Romney makes when Likely Voter filters are applied, I'd say the Gallup and Rasmussen numbers are probably close to, if not exactly, the same.

Let's see if Obama gets another bounce from the 47% remark (doubt it, but we'll see) and how quickly that one fades...
Rasussen is a joke. only R's give it any seriousness as a poll.

The R's kep telling all of us Obot's that McCain was surging and all the polls were wrong. Looks like its going to be more of the same this year.
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Old 09-18-2012, 05:45 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Like I said, if you have a poll that is constructed from +7 Dems then a +5 Obama is probably about right. Unfortunately, I couldn't find the vote breakdown by party affiliation to see how they're each doing with IND.

ON EDIT: Also the dates on this are 9-12/9-16, so again it reflects a minimal amount of the movement that Gallup and Rasmussen started showing last Friday.
42 D
37 R
16 I

Of course since it is random they weigh the R's more
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Old 09-18-2012, 09:04 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
42 D
37 R
16 I

Of course since it is random they weigh the R's more
With IND leaners you have D+5.

Could happen, but doubt it.
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Old 09-18-2012, 09:11 PM   #36
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Most of these polls are assuming D+5 to D+7. I think realistically we are looking at D+2. They are also underpolling Independents which favor Romney. If most of these polls actually used a D+2 model, then Romney would be ahead in almost all of them. When Gallup switched their model, it showed Romney as +5. Then they got Axelrodded and switched back to the old model. Anyone who really believes that Obama is winning in these polls does not understand polling models, or they are ignorant if the believe that voter turnout is going to reflect that of 2008.
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Old 09-18-2012, 09:41 PM   #37
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The only things worth following at this point, as far as I'm concerned is InTrade and Nate Silver. Both will show any real movement in the polling market. Neither have Romney anywhere in striking distance at this point.
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Old 09-18-2012, 09:51 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DementedLogic View Post
Most of these polls are assuming D+5 to D+7. I think realistically we are looking at D+2. They are also underpolling Independents which favor Romney. If most of these polls actually used a D+2 model, then Romney would be ahead in almost all of them. When Gallup switched their model, it showed Romney as +5. Then they got Axelrodded and switched back to the old model. Anyone who really believes that Obama is winning in these polls does not understand polling models, or they are ignorant if the believe that voter turnout is going to reflect that of 2008.
First, let me say that I give a damn about polls. It's the election results that count. However, let me pretend for a second that I do. Every poll everywhere is wrong? And I should just accept that because some dude on the internet said so?
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Old 09-18-2012, 09:56 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DementedLogic View Post
Most of these polls are assuming D+5 to D+7. I think realistically we are looking at D+2. They are also underpolling Independents which favor Romney. If most of these polls actually used a D+2 model, then Romney would be ahead in almost all of them. When Gallup switched their model, it showed Romney as +5. Then they got Axelrodded and switched back to the old model. Anyone who really believes that Obama is winning in these polls does not understand polling models, or they are ignorant if the believe that voter turnout is going to reflect that of 2008.
You betcha' they're not polling Independents nor are they calculating the undecideds like myself.
I will vote either Mitt or Johnson. I may vote for Mitt, if it looks like Obama is still ahead, so I plan on voting at the last minute. Afterall, I think a war may happen under either, with Obama just being more covert about it using viruses etc and pandering to the voters lately. So I might as well go for a 50/50 chance of having states opt out of Obamacare or a repeal. But, since I change my mind every so many days....I still don't know.
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Old 09-18-2012, 10:05 PM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J Diddy View Post
First, let me say that I give a damn about polls. It's the election results that count. However, let me pretend for a second that I do. Every poll everywhere is wrong? And I should just accept that because some dude on the internet said so?
It is truly amazing hearing people like Rush and Hannity talking about the polls. If Obama is up or is making a positive move, then the poll is biased, the sample size wrong, the methodology is BS, etc. But if Romney moves up a point, they are humping that thing like it is definitive proof of a Romney landslide.
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Old 09-18-2012, 10:31 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by J Diddy View Post
First, let me say that I give a damn about polls. It's the election results that count. However, let me pretend for a second that I do. Every poll everywhere is wrong? And I should just accept that because some dude on the internet said so?
I'm not saying every poll is wrong. However, most are basing their models on 2008 voter turnout. If you truly believe that the turnout is going to be similar, then the polls should be great for you. I think it says a lot that as soon as Gallup changed its model to a more realistic turnout, it had Romney beating Obama. A couple of days later the justice department sued Gallup and they reverted back to the 2008 model.
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Old 09-18-2012, 10:46 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by DementedLogic View Post
I'm not saying every poll is wrong. However, most are basing their models on 2008 voter turnout. If you truly believe that the turnout is going to be similar, then the polls should be great for you. I think it says a lot that as soon as Gallup changed its model to a more realistic turnout, it had Romney beating Obama. A couple of days later the justice department sued Gallup and they reverted back to the 2008 model.
First, that description of the legal action against Gallup is COMPLETELY false. There was a lawsuit, and it had nothing to do with voter turnout models.

Second, I don't know how you or anyone knows that the pollsters are using 2008 voter turnout models or what they are using. The specifics of their various methodologies are not released. Exactly how they get their final numbers is their "secret formula," so to speak.

Third, the "mainstream" polling orgs are in the business of being accurate. That is what they strive for, that is what they are selling. There is no reason for them to purposefully skew the numbers.
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Old 09-18-2012, 11:05 PM   #43
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I'm guessing his bump is due to this:

"If the Hispanic voting bloc becomes as committed to the Democrats as the African-American voting bloc has in the past, why, we're in trouble as a party and, I think, as a nation."
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Old 09-18-2012, 11:32 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
It is truly amazing hearing people like Rush and Hannity talking about the polls. If Obama is up or is making a positive move, then the poll is biased, the sample size wrong, the methodology is BS, etc. But if Romney moves up a point, they are humping that thing like it is definitive proof of a Romney landslide.
I don't agree with the fact that Obama being up = a flawed poll. Gallup and Rasmussen both had Obama up 5+ last week and there haven't been any polls except the tracking polls that have results since last Friday.

I agree that the turnout will be somewhere around the historical average of 3-4 points DEM. Might be a little less, might be a little more, but it won't be anywhere near 2008 IMO.
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Old 09-18-2012, 11:38 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DementedLogic View Post
I'm not saying every poll is wrong. However, most are basing their models on 2008 voter turnout. If you truly believe that the turnout is going to be similar, then the polls should be great for you. I think it says a lot that as soon as Gallup changed its model to a more realistic turnout, it had Romney beating Obama. A couple of days later the justice department sued Gallup and they reverted back to the 2008 model.
I don't know if they're all modeled off of 2008, but none are modeled after the national party ID of 2010. That's why I see this as being a 2004 election -- if Obama can get his base out he can neutralize Romney's advantage with INDs.
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