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Old 09-18-2012, 11:21 AM  
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
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National Tracking Polls: Romney +6 in Last Week

Strange. I thought all of these Romney gaffes had killed his campaign.

Rasmussen Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 46
Rasmussen This Week: Obama: 45, Romney: 47

Gallup Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 43
Gallup This Week: Obama: 47, Romney: 46

Given the huge pick-ups Romney makes when Likely Voter filters are applied, I'd say the Gallup and Rasmussen numbers are probably close to, if not exactly, the same.

Let's see if Obama gets another bounce from the 47% remark (doubt it, but we'll see) and how quickly that one fades...

Last edited by RINGLEADER; 09-18-2012 at 11:36 AM..
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Old 09-19-2012, 11:56 AM   #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
No, it was not. We're back to square one.
*sigh* He didn't say it was. He said he believed it was. You believe otherwise. Fine.


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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Pat, I pre-emptively accept your apology.
You must mean prematurely. He's still not saying the lawsuit is a lawsuit about the models. He's only saying the lawsuit was intended to intimidate Gallup into changing their models. You should hire me to be your interpreter.
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Old 09-19-2012, 12:06 PM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
*sigh* He didn't say it was. He said he believed it was. You believe otherwise. Fine.


You must mean prematurely. He's still not saying the lawsuit is a lawsuit about the models. He's only saying the lawsuit was intended to intimidate Gallup into changing their models. You should hire me to be your interpreter.

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Originally Posted by DementedLogic View Post
I believe the suit was because of the model.
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Originally Posted by DementedLogic View Post
I don't know exactly what models they were using at any time.
I think someone doesn't know what they are talking about and you are eagerly backing him up for some reason.

So...the lawsuit over a completely different issue did not have any merit and was dropped then?
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Old 09-19-2012, 12:17 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
I think someone doesn't know what they are talking about and you are eagerly backing him up for some reason.

So...the lawsuit over a completely different issue did not have any merit and was dropped then?
I don't know anything about the lawsuit and I don't know anything about the merit of DementedLogic's theory about the lawsuit. I just know that I understood what he was saying.
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Old 09-19-2012, 12:19 PM   #64
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Never say never, but I think Nate Silver has it about right when he gives Obama about a 70% chance of winning the election.

I would be surprised if Romney wins both Ohio and VA, but stranger things have happened. You are correct in your assessment of PA and MI.

Job approval rate has risen fairly rapidly for Obama. I don't know why other than to say that Mitt is far more flawed than I thought he would be.

The election is far from over. Had you asked me a year ago, however, I would have bet the fundamentals in Sept 2012 would be in Mitt's favor, rather than Obama's. I would have been wrong.
70% could be correct. I don't think Romney's in the driver's seat and haven't said such a thing, but I also don't believe it is ludicrous to believe he could win Florida. Or Ohio. Or Virginia. The reason people discount his chances a bit (rightfully so) is that he has to win all three. But everyone running around saying the election is over isn't basing it on facts and statistics.

Again, that could change in a few days. It will be interesting to see what Rasmussen picks up by Friday and Gallup by next Monday.
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Old 09-19-2012, 12:24 PM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
I think someone doesn't know what they are talking about and you are eagerly backing him up for some reason.

So...the lawsuit over a completely different issue did not have any merit and was dropped then?
http://dailycaller.com/2012/09/06/ju...zed-pollsters/

I have no desire to post and format the link, but the daily caller breaks it down pretty well.
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Old 09-19-2012, 12:24 PM   #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I don't know anything about the lawsuit and I don't know anything about the merit of DementedLogic's theory about the lawsuit. I just know that I understood what he was saying.
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Old 09-19-2012, 12:34 PM   #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DementedLogic View Post
http://dailycaller.com/2012/09/06/ju...zed-pollsters/

I have no desire to post and format the link, but the daily caller breaks it down pretty well.
No they don't break it down pretty well. It is like they purposefully avoided any detail that would actually explain the situation, such as what the lawsuit was about or what Alexrod's actual beef was. (The lawsuit had to with Gallup overcharging on some undelivered work and Alexrod's main beef had to with likely vs registered voters) And, despite your earlier statement otherwise, Gallup apparently did not change anything about its methods.
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Old 09-19-2012, 01:21 PM   #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I don't know anything about the lawsuit and I don't know anything about the merit of DementedLogic's theory about the lawsuit. I just know that I understood what he was saying.
So if I said Romney blows goats, are you just going to take that as truth? I mean you understood what I was saying, right?
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Old 09-19-2012, 01:23 PM   #69
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New poll show widening lead for Obama

A new Pew Research survey finds President Obama now leads Mitt Romney nationally by eight points among likely voters, 51% to 43%.


Also new poll in Wisconsin shows Obama up by 14%
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Old 09-19-2012, 01:46 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
No they don't break it down pretty well. It is like they purposefully avoided any detail that would actually explain the situation, such as what the lawsuit was about
"In August, Justice signed on to a suit Lindley filed in 2009. Lindley alleged, according to The Associated Press, that Gallup filed false claims with the federal government on contracts it had with the State Department, the U.S. Mint and other federal agencies."


Quote:
or what Alexrod's actual beef was. (The lawsuit had to with Gallup overcharging on some undelivered work and Alexrod's main beef had to with likely vs registered voters)
"In April, Axelrod tweeted that a poll showing Mitt Romney with a 48-43 percent lead over Obama was “saddled with some methodological problems,” directing his Twitter followers to read a National Journal story criticizing Gallup polls showing a Romney lead.

In that National Journal piece, Ron Brownstein wrote that the polls showing Romney leading the president had “a sample that looks much more like the electorate in 2010 than the voting population that is likely to turn out in 2012.”"


Quote:
And, despite your earlier statement otherwise, Gallup apparently did not change anything about its methods.
Yes they did. They returned to oversampling Democrats. Now their samples look more like the electorate in 2008.


This is classic David Axelrod, intimidate people into doing things your way, or dig up dirt and sue them. This case was 3 years old. Gallup hadn't heard from the federal government for a year and a half, and even that time was at Gallup's request.
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Old 09-19-2012, 02:05 PM   #71
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given the unprecedented turnout for Obama in '08 and the unprecedented disappointment with him now.....
Google "Obama Approval" & you'll see that disappointment in Obama is far from "unprecedented." You see stuff like:

"Sept 19, 2012 WASHINGTON -
A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds that Americans are feeling markedly better about the country's future and about Barack Obama's job performance. Obama's approval rating is back above 50 percent for the first time since May.
"
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Old 09-19-2012, 02:07 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by Ugly Duck View Post
Google "Obama Approval" & you'll see that disappointment in Obama is far from "unprecedented." You see stuff like:

"Sept 19, 2012 WASHINGTON -
A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds that Americans are feeling markedly better about the country's future and about Barack Obama's job performance. Obama's approval rating is back above 50 percent for the first time since May.
"
I know that I approve of $16 trillion in debt. That just makes me want to break-dance.
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Old 09-19-2012, 02:08 PM   #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DementedLogic View Post
"In August, Justice signed on to a suit Lindley filed in 2009. Lindley alleged, according to The Associated Press, that Gallup filed false claims with the federal government on contracts it had with the State Department, the U.S. Mint and other federal agencies."
Was this actually in the Daily Caller story? You are presenting it like it was.

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Originally Posted by DementedLogic View Post

"In April, Axelrod tweeted that a poll showing Mitt Romney with a 48-43 percent lead over Obama was “saddled with some methodological problems,” directing his Twitter followers to read a National Journal story criticizing Gallup polls showing a Romney lead.

In that National Journal piece, Ron Brownstein wrote that the polls showing Romney leading the president had “a sample that looks much more like the electorate in 2010 than the voting population that is likely to turn out in 2012

Yes they did. They returned to oversampling Democrats. Now their samples look more like the electorate in 2008.
Alexrod mentioned a National Journal article, then the Daily Caller picks one element of that article, then implies THAT was the element that Alexrod was focused on. JFC

Get a source other than the Daily Caller.
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Old 09-19-2012, 02:12 PM   #74
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So if I said Romney blows goats, are you just going to take that as truth? I mean you understood what I was saying, right?
Sometimes I wonder about how low your college's entrance requirements must be. Why would understanding you mean that I had to believe you were telling the truth?
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Old 09-19-2012, 02:15 PM   #75
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