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Old 09-18-2012, 11:21 AM  
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
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National Tracking Polls: Romney +6 in Last Week

Strange. I thought all of these Romney gaffes had killed his campaign.

Rasmussen Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 46
Rasmussen This Week: Obama: 45, Romney: 47

Gallup Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 43
Gallup This Week: Obama: 47, Romney: 46

Given the huge pick-ups Romney makes when Likely Voter filters are applied, I'd say the Gallup and Rasmussen numbers are probably close to, if not exactly, the same.

Let's see if Obama gets another bounce from the 47% remark (doubt it, but we'll see) and how quickly that one fades...

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Old 09-19-2012, 02:27 PM   #76
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
New poll show widening lead for Obama

A new Pew Research survey finds President Obama now leads Mitt Romney nationally by eight points among likely voters, 51% to 43%.


Also new poll in Wisconsin shows Obama up by 14%
Just finished reading the internals on this one...was wondering why it seemed to be an outlier. Major poll...utilized over 3000 participants rathern than the usual >1500. Few more dems responded than repubs, and independents were very well represented...both cell phone and landlines were used.

Anyway, I am rather surprised at the margin of difference - I view Pew as one of the better polls, but that is just me.

Read for yourself...http://pewresearch.org/
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Old 09-19-2012, 02:46 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Was this actually in the Daily Caller story? You are presenting it like it was.
I copied and pasted it directly from the The Daily Caller story that I posted.


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Alexrod mentioned a National Journal article, then the Daily Caller picks one element of that article, then implies THAT was the element that Alexrod was focused on. JFC

Get a source other than the Daily Caller.
They posted a link to the entire article as well. The main point of the national journal article was that Gallup's polling was reflecting the 2010 electorate. It then expanded on that. The Daily Caller quoted the main point of the article. Did you want them to copy and paste the entire article?
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Old 09-19-2012, 02:59 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by oldandslow View Post
Just finished reading the internals on this one...was wondering why it seemed to be an outlier. Major poll...utilized over 3000 participants rathern than the usual >1500. Few more dems responded than repubs, and independents were very well represented...both cell phone and landlines were used.

Anyway, I am rather surprised at the margin of difference - I view Pew as one of the better polls, but that is just me.

Read for yourself...http://pewresearch.org/
Here is Pew's breakdown.
30.6% Republican
37.0% Democrat
32.3% Independent

Unweighted Vote Totals
50.7% Obama
45.3% Romney


So they polled Democrats +6.4%, then they weighted even further to get Obama to +8. After weighting, it becomes D+9. Do you think that is realistic?
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Old 09-19-2012, 03:15 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by DementedLogic View Post
Here is Pew's breakdown.
30.6% Republican
37.0% Democrat
32.3% Independent

Unweighted Vote Totals
50.7% Obama
45.3% Romney


So they polled Democrats +6.4%, then they weighted even further to get Obama to +8. After weighting, it becomes D+9. Do you think that is realistic?
Good question...and on the outside looking in that seems unrealistic. However, they base their weighing on Census data etc that is quite accurate. To be blunt, Pew is one of the better polls out there. Key characteristics of their samples conform closely to known population parameters from the U.S. Census. Finally, their final polls in major national elections have been very good. They came within one percentage point of predicting the margin of victory for Barack Obama in 2008, and Republican candidates for the U.S. House in 2010.

BTW in mid/late sept, 2008 Pew had Obama beating McCain by 6...Rasmussen had it a tie...which one turned out to be correct?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-225.html

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Old 09-19-2012, 03:38 PM   #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DementedLogic View Post
Here is Pew's breakdown.
30.6% Republican
37.0% Democrat
32.3% Independent

Unweighted Vote Totals
50.7% Obama
45.3% Romney

So they polled Democrats +6.4%, then they weighted even further to get Obama to +8. After weighting, it becomes D+9. Do you think that is realistic?
I think that I have yet to see a poll favoring a D that wasn't dismissed by the Rs as being biased, improperly weighted, etc. Heard the same in 2008, right before Obama won. Bottom line is that whatever the major pollsters are doing, they are usually pretty damn close most of the time. I don't see what is in it for them to intentionally not shoot for accuracy.
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Old 09-19-2012, 03:43 PM   #81
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Originally Posted by oldandslow View Post
Good question...and on the outside looking in that seems unrealistic. However, they base their weighing on Census data etc that is quite accurate. To be blunt, Pew is one of the better polls out there. Key characteristics of their samples conform closely to known population parameters from the U.S. Census. Finally, their final polls in major national elections have been very good. They came within one percentage point of predicting the margin of victory for Barack Obama in 2008, and Republican candidates for the U.S. House in 2010.

BTW in mid/late sept, 2008 Pew had Obama beating McCain by 6...Rasmussen had it a tie...which one turned out to be correct?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-225.html
The Census does not ask party affiliation.

As of 9/14, Pew had it as a tie. They didn't have it as Obama+6 until 9/29.
Rasmussen had it as a tie on 9/17, but guess what, they had it as Obama +6 on 9/26. So your statement is incorrect.


You want to know something else, Rasmussen hed it as Obama +5 to +7 from 9/26 all the way until the election. Pew had Obama +14 on 10/19 and Obama+15 on 10/26.
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Old 09-19-2012, 03:52 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by DementedLogic View Post
The Census does not ask party affiliation.

As of 9/14, Pew had it as a tie. They didn't have it as Obama+6 until 9/29.
Rasmussen had it as a tie on 9/17, but guess what, they had it as Obama +6 on 9/26. So your statement is incorrect.


You want to know something else, Rasmussen hed it as Obama +5 to +7 from 9/26 all the way until the election. Pew had Obama +14 on 10/19 and Obama+15 on 10/26.
And on election day Pew had it within 1 pt. As well as in 2010. Polls are snapshots of that day. Pew is very good at capturing those snapshots. Their methodology is not bad at all.
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Old 09-19-2012, 04:05 PM   #83
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Rasussen is a joke. only R's give it any seriousness as a poll.

The R's kep telling all of us Obot's that McCain was surging and all the polls were wrong. Looks like its going to be more of the same this year.
If you are right, it will be more of the same next year as well.
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Old 09-19-2012, 04:16 PM   #84
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Nate Silver has a good article up today about polls who include cellphone users and live interviewers and those that don't

There is a huge difference between those polls

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...de-cellphones/

Quote:
In one of the forecasts, I ran the numbers based solely on polls that do include cellphones in their samples. The vast majority of these polls also use live interviewers, since federal law prohibits automated calls to cellphones under most circumstances. (Note, however, that one or two mostly automated polling firms, like SurveyUSA, use a separate sample based on live interviewers to reach cellphone-only voters; these were included in the model run.)

In this universe, Mr. Obama seems poised for victory. The model forecasts him for a 4.1 percentage points win in the national popular vote. That compares with 2.9 percentage points in the regular FiveThirtyEight forecast, which includes polls both with and without cellphones.

Mr. Obama’s advantage is also clearer in the swing states. The cellphone-inclusive polls give him an 80 percent chance to win Virginia, a 79 percent chance in Ohio, and a 68 percent chance to win Florida, all considerably higher than in the official FiveThirtyEight forecast.

Overall, this version of the model gives Mr. Obama an 83 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, a full 10 percentage points higher than the 73 percent chance that the official FiveThirtyEight forecast gave him as of Monday night. So the methodological differences are showing up in a big way this year.
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The other version of the model consisted solely of polls that do not include cellphones. Although there are a handful of live-interview polls that still omit cellphones, most of the no-cellphone polls used automated dialers, while some were conducted online.

Here, Mr. Obama’s position is much more tenuous. The no-cellphone polls project him to a popular vote margin of just 1.5 percentage points, 2.6 points lower than in the cellphone-inclusive polls.

Mr. Obama is also losing Florida and Virginia in this version of the model, and has a much slimmer lead, of about one percentage point, in Ohio. Thus, his chances of winning the Electoral College are just 61 percent, as compared with 83 percent in the polls that do include cellphones.
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Old 09-19-2012, 05:34 PM   #85
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Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT)

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 44% (Fox News)

Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 42% (Fox News)

Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 44% (CNN/ORC)

Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 41% (Morning Call/Muhlenberg)

Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)

Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 43% (Fox News)

Wisconsin:Obama 51%, Romney 45% (Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT)

Wisconsin: Obama 54%, Romney 40% (Marquette Law School)
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Old 09-19-2012, 08:27 PM   #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT)

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 44% (Fox News)

Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 42% (Fox News)

Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 44% (CNN/ORC)

Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 41% (Morning Call/Muhlenberg)

Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)

Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 43% (Fox News)

Wisconsin:Obama 51%, Romney 45% (Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT)

Wisconsin: Obama 54%, Romney 40%
(Marquette Law School)
Romney's people must be shitting themselves.

I thought Ryan was supposed to put Wisconsin in play.
They are going to lose the VP's home state and both of Romney's (MA and MI). Wonder when the last time that happened.
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Old 09-19-2012, 08:30 PM   #87
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Old 09-19-2012, 08:36 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Romney's people must be shitting themselves.

I thought Ryan was supposed to put Wisconsin in play.
They are going to lose the VP's home state and both of Romney's (MA and MI). Wonder when the last time that happened.
They lost the Paul supporters and its their own dayum fault. They aren't getting enough of the Independents to put them over. I'll wait until voting day to see how this is holding up.

Saw this over at Lew's!

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Hey, Ron Paul Supporters

Come back(?) to the Republican party, you Ron grassroots. All is forgiven! Actually, we Republican neocons still hate your guts, but we want you to support warmongering fascist B as versus warmongering fascist A, because we hope to be on his payroll. There's a big difference, really. So get to it, and then shut up. Be Zombies for Romney. (Thanks to Travis Holte)
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Old 09-19-2012, 08:38 PM   #89
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They lost the Paul supporters and its their own dayum fault.
Yes because the Paul supporters went into this with a cooperative republican spirit...

LOL
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Old 09-19-2012, 08:41 PM   #90
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As if conventions and primaries in the past have always had cooperation. Remember Reagan was an insurgency that had in-fighting too. Before the scripted era of PR, conventions were full of passion. This is politics bub.
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