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Old 09-22-2012, 03:45 PM  
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
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Ringleader's First Filtered Poll Analysis Of 2012: O (49.99%), R (48.32%)

So I broke out my spreadsheet that has done a pretty good job of accurately predicting the final vote tallies of the presidential candidates. It takes the existing polls, weights them on historical accuracy, builds in state leads, re-weights outliers, and spits out a number for the Dem and GOP candidates as well as others.

One slight adjustment I made this year was to increase the total "other" vote just a bit. I was under a tad (less than three-tenths of a percent) last time and I think Gary Johnson will get a slightly stronger vote this time.

I went back and looked and my final run of this program on election day 2008 was pretty close: Obama's final tally under-scored 0.13% while McCain's over-scored 0.43%. Not sure how that stands up against the almighty Nate Silver, but I'll take it.
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Old 09-22-2012, 04:05 PM   #2
Direckshun Direckshun is online now
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As RINGLEADER accuses his spreadsheet of liberal bias.
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Old 09-22-2012, 05:06 PM   #3
cosmo20002 cosmo20002 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
So I broke out my spreadsheet that has done a pretty good job of accurately predicting the final vote tallies of the presidential candidates. It takes the existing polls, weights them on historical accuracy, builds in state leads, re-weights outliers, and spits out a number for the Dem and GOP candidates as well as others.

One slight adjustment I made this year was to increase the total "other" vote just a bit. I was under a tad (less than three-tenths of a percent) last time and I think Gary Johnson will get a slightly stronger vote this time.

I went back and looked and my final run of this program on election day 2008 was pretty close: Obama's final tally under-scored 0.13% while McCain's over-scored 0.43%. Not sure how that stands up against the almighty Nate Silver, but I'll take it.
Guy on CP vs. Gallup, etc. I'll give it the consideration it is due.
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Old 09-22-2012, 06:25 PM   #4
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Guy on CP vs. Gallup, etc. I'll give it the consideration it is due.
Just saying - it's been right the last two times.

As for bias, the filter weights the polls based on current party ID so it is what it is.
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