Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Lounge

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-26-2012, 09:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $18789
Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
Posts: 32,604
cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 03:31 PM   #151
Bewbies Bewbies is offline
Where's the flag ref?
 
Bewbies's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2010
Casino cash: $8272
Need a Philly win tonight. Then it'll be the loser of the CLE/OAK game, Carolina left with 3, us and Jax with 2.

If we can lose to Oakland and Cleveland I really like our chances. GENO OR BUST!!
Posts: 6,598
Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 03:32 PM   #152
ChiefsandO'sfan ChiefsandO'sfan is offline
Alex Smith
 
ChiefsandO'sfan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Casino cash: $9542
Cleveland 3-8 @OAK, KC, WASH, @DEN, @PIT
Carolina 3-9 ATL, @SD, OAK, @NO
Kansas City 2-10 @CLE, @OAK, IND, @DEN
Jacksonville 2-10 NYJ, @MIA, NE, @TEN

Carolina at best wins 1 game. 4-12
Jags at best wins 1 game 3-13
Browns at best wins 1 game 4-12
Chiefs could wins 3 games (Browns,Oakland,Denver will have nothing to play for) 5-11




How do they get those Odds? Kc at 57%

Last edited by ChiefsandO'sfan; 12-02-2012 at 03:38 PM..
Posts: 17,318
ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 03:36 PM   #153
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $18789
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post
Cleveland 3-8 @OAK, KC, WASH, @DEN, @PIT
Carolina 3-9 ATL, @SD, OAK, @NO
Kansas City 2-10 @CLE, @OAK, IND, @DEN
Jacksonville 2-10 NYJ, @MIA, NE, @TEN

Carolina at best win 1 game. 4-12
Jags at best win 1 game 3-13
Browns at best win 1 game 4-12
Chiefs could win 3 games (Browns,Oakland,Denver will have nothing to play for) 5-11




How do they get those Odds? Kc at 57%
I have my own software that simulates the remaining games of the NFL season thousands of times and applies the tiebreakers to determine playoff odds, draft position odds, etc. Been doing it around 14 years now.

nfl-forecast.com
Posts: 32,604
cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 03:37 PM   #154
Count Alex's Losses Count Alex's Losses is offline
Count the checkdowns, too.
 
Count Alex's Losses's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2002
Casino cash: $38242
The Raiders are playing the Browns right now so that helps us.
__________________
Better to be the bastard child of a king and his whore than to be a ****ing peasant at the shite homer trough.
Posts: 171,951
Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 03:48 PM   #155
aturnis aturnis is offline
MVP
 
aturnis's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Iowa
Casino cash: $8682
Quote:
Originally Posted by Infidel Goat View Post
Pulling hard for the Jags over Jets next week. That's probably their most winnable game left...
I think they could win any of their remaining games save NE.
Posts: 10,809
aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 03:54 PM   #156
Sully Sully is online now
It Goes On
 
Sully's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Lees Summit
Casino cash: $13477
I'm not ready to concede that they are out of the playoffs!
-Karl Rove

(I know, I know... Keep it in DC)
__________________
"And I don't wish that girl any bad luck," he said, "but I hope she gets hit with a car."
- Tommy Lasorda
Posts: 14,196
Sully Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Sully Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Sully Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Sully Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Sully Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Sully Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Sully Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Sully Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Sully Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Sully Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Sully Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 03:58 PM   #157
The Bad Guy The Bad Guy is offline
Scott Pioli
 
The Bad Guy's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: The Copacobana
Casino cash: $8582
Today was a nice game, but this team is horrid on the road.

I like Cleveland's defense a lot, and I like their run game, a lot.

2 areas the Chiefs have real trouble with.

Chiefs are going 2-14, no doubt in my mind.
__________________
Posts: 22,388
The Bad Guy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.The Bad Guy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.The Bad Guy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.The Bad Guy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.The Bad Guy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.The Bad Guy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.The Bad Guy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.The Bad Guy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.The Bad Guy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.The Bad Guy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.The Bad Guy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 04:15 PM   #158
MahiMike MahiMike is offline
Alex > Kaepernick
 
MahiMike's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Jax, FL
Casino cash: $9026
Cannot believe we screwed up so badly today.
__________________
Thank you Mr. Dorsey for signing Alex to a new deal. It's worth it just to piss GoChiefs off.
Posts: 8,686
MahiMike Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.MahiMike Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.MahiMike Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.MahiMike Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.MahiMike Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.MahiMike Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.MahiMike Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.MahiMike Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.MahiMike Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.MahiMike Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.MahiMike Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 04:30 PM   #159
ChiefsandO'sfan ChiefsandO'sfan is offline
Alex Smith
 
ChiefsandO'sfan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Casino cash: $9542
Chiefs- 2-10 @CLE, @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-10 NYJ, @MIA , NE, @TEN
Carolina- 3-9 ATL , @SD , OAK , @NO
Oakland- 3-9 DEN , KC , @CAR , @SD
Browns- 4-8 KC , WASH , @DEN , @PITT
Eagels- 3-8 @TB , CINN , WASH , @NYG



Chiefs are gonna **** this up.

Last edited by ChiefsandO'sfan; 12-02-2012 at 06:14 PM..
Posts: 17,318
ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.ChiefsandO'sfan threw an interception on a screen pass.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 04:42 PM   #160
Chocolate Hog Chocolate Hog is offline
Winner
 
Chocolate Hog's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: My house
Casino cash: $13545
****ing Oakland concerns me.
Posts: 35,338
Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Chocolate Hog has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 04:49 PM   #161
tk13 tk13 is offline
...
 
tk13's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2001
Casino cash: $18835
You know, at this point if the Steelers and Cincy both lose today the Colts will be 2 games ahead of everyone else for a playoff spot. Colts play Houston 2 of the last 3 weeks so I wouldn't bet on this... but you run the risk of the Colts having nothing to play for either if all these teams keep losing.

That's what tough about this, you don't know what teams will be playing hard and which ones won't with so many teams way out front in their playoff races.
Posts: 37,440
tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 05:19 PM   #162
htismaqe htismaqe is offline
What? What?
 
htismaqe's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Chiefsplanet
Casino cash: $8834
The Chiefs had no turnovers and like 1 penalty today. That won't happen again the rest of the season.
Posts: 61,900
htismaqe is obviously part of the inner Circle.htismaqe is obviously part of the inner Circle.htismaqe is obviously part of the inner Circle.htismaqe is obviously part of the inner Circle.htismaqe is obviously part of the inner Circle.htismaqe is obviously part of the inner Circle.htismaqe is obviously part of the inner Circle.htismaqe is obviously part of the inner Circle.htismaqe is obviously part of the inner Circle.htismaqe is obviously part of the inner Circle.htismaqe is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 06:12 PM   #163
Count Alex's Losses Count Alex's Losses is offline
Count the checkdowns, too.
 
Count Alex's Losses's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2002
Casino cash: $38242
Browns have their game won.

How does that help us?

Or is it all about Jacksonville?
__________________
Better to be the bastard child of a king and his whore than to be a ****ing peasant at the shite homer trough.
Posts: 171,951
Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 06:13 PM   #164
DeezNutz DeezNutz is offline
PermaBanned
 
DeezNutz's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Jouissance
Casino cash: $8710
It's likely going to come down to losing at OAK to ensure the #1 overall pick.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by badgirl View Post
If you met me in person and didn't know who I was you would never guess it was me.
Posts: 47,038
DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 06:14 PM   #165
alnorth alnorth is offline
.
 
alnorth's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Iowania
Casino cash: $47372822
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Browns have their game won.

How does that help us?

Or is it all about Jacksonville?
Browns are pretty much eliminated. Had it been a tie, both the Browns and the Raiders would have been out.
__________________
<ptp> how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb?
<Willy> HOW MANY?!
<ptp> none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 28,267
alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:24 PM.


This is a test for a client's site.
A new website that shows member-created construction site listings that need fill or have excess fill. Dirt Monkey @ https://DirtMonkey.net
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.