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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:31 PM   #151
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Need a Philly win tonight. Then it'll be the loser of the CLE/OAK game, Carolina left with 3, us and Jax with 2.

If we can lose to Oakland and Cleveland I really like our chances. GENO OR BUST!!
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:32 PM   #152
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Cleveland 3-8 @OAK, KC, WASH, @DEN, @PIT
Carolina 3-9 ATL, @SD, OAK, @NO
Kansas City 2-10 @CLE, @OAK, IND, @DEN
Jacksonville 2-10 NYJ, @MIA, NE, @TEN

Carolina at best wins 1 game. 4-12
Jags at best wins 1 game 3-13
Browns at best wins 1 game 4-12
Chiefs could wins 3 games (Browns,Oakland,Denver will have nothing to play for) 5-11




How do they get those Odds? Kc at 57%
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:36 PM   #153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post
Cleveland 3-8 @OAK, KC, WASH, @DEN, @PIT
Carolina 3-9 ATL, @SD, OAK, @NO
Kansas City 2-10 @CLE, @OAK, IND, @DEN
Jacksonville 2-10 NYJ, @MIA, NE, @TEN

Carolina at best win 1 game. 4-12
Jags at best win 1 game 3-13
Browns at best win 1 game 4-12
Chiefs could win 3 games (Browns,Oakland,Denver will have nothing to play for) 5-11




How do they get those Odds? Kc at 57%
I have my own software that simulates the remaining games of the NFL season thousands of times and applies the tiebreakers to determine playoff odds, draft position odds, etc. Been doing it around 14 years now.

nfl-forecast.com
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:37 PM   #154
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The Raiders are playing the Browns right now so that helps us.
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:48 PM   #155
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Pulling hard for the Jags over Jets next week. That's probably their most winnable game left...
I think they could win any of their remaining games save NE.
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:54 PM   #156
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:58 PM   #157
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Today was a nice game, but this team is horrid on the road.

I like Cleveland's defense a lot, and I like their run game, a lot.

2 areas the Chiefs have real trouble with.

Chiefs are going 2-14, no doubt in my mind.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:15 PM   #158
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:30 PM   #159
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Chiefs- 2-10 @CLE, @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-10 NYJ, @MIA , NE, @TEN
Carolina- 3-9 ATL , @SD , OAK , @NO
Oakland- 3-9 DEN , KC , @CAR , @SD
Browns- 4-8 KC , WASH , @DEN , @PITT
Eagels- 3-8 @TB , CINN , WASH , @NYG



Chiefs are gonna **** this up.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:42 PM   #160
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****ing Oakland concerns me.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:49 PM   #161
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You know, at this point if the Steelers and Cincy both lose today the Colts will be 2 games ahead of everyone else for a playoff spot. Colts play Houston 2 of the last 3 weeks so I wouldn't bet on this... but you run the risk of the Colts having nothing to play for either if all these teams keep losing.

That's what tough about this, you don't know what teams will be playing hard and which ones won't with so many teams way out front in their playoff races.
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Old 12-02-2012, 04:19 PM   #162
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The Chiefs had no turnovers and like 1 penalty today. That won't happen again the rest of the season.
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:12 PM   #163
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Browns have their game won.

How does that help us?

Or is it all about Jacksonville?
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:13 PM   #164
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It's likely going to come down to losing at OAK to ensure the #1 overall pick.
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:14 PM   #165
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Browns have their game won.

How does that help us?

Or is it all about Jacksonville?
Browns are pretty much eliminated. Had it been a tie, both the Browns and the Raiders would have been out.
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