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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:15 PM   #166
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Browns have their game won.

How does that help us?

Or is it all about Jacksonville?
I would guess it eliminates Cleveland and makes it a four team race with us, Jacksonville, Oakland, and Carolina with a tiny chance
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:15 PM   #167
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I meant Philly not carolina
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:16 PM   #168
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So if we lose to Cleveland, but beat Oakland, what are our chances?

I don't remember the last time a 3-13 team had the #1 pick.
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:17 PM   #169
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If Kc and Oakland end up tied Oakland would get the top pick. That game in 2 weeks is big.
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:17 PM   #170
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The SOS tiebreaker is fluid, but right now Oakland has the tiebreaker on us. (so does philly, but with their remaining schedule, that wont continue to be the case) That tiebreak might hold because Oakland's remaining schedule mostly sucks. So, we definitely need to lose to Oakland to put them out. Our 1 win cant be that one.

In any case we still must lose out unless Jacksonville wins 1, then we must lose at least 3 more games.
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:17 PM   #171
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We really need Jacksonville to win one more.
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:17 PM   #172
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Browns have their game won.

How does that help us?

Or is it all about Jacksonville?
Drops us to 54%
Bumps Oakland to 15%
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:18 PM   #173
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I think that Jac wins against NYJ and they certainly have a chance against Tennessee.

Oakland worries me. Really need for McFadden to get healthy and for them to beat us.
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:19 PM   #174
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We are literally two weeks from the #1 pick. It is stressful that these two weeks could stop us from getting Geno.
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:19 PM   #175
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We had a comfortable lead going into the day and we pissed it all away in a single week.
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:21 PM   #176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
We are literally two weeks from the #1 pick. It is stressful that these two weeks could stop us from getting Geno.
Chiefs will win last week Denver will have nothing to play for.




EDIT Nevermind Ravens shit the Bed.
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:22 PM   #177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
We are literally two weeks from the #1 pick. It is stressful that these two weeks could stop us from getting Geno.
Even if we lose the next two we only have an 85% chance of getting the number 1 pick. Long way to go.
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:24 PM   #178
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
We are literally two weeks from the #1 pick. It is stressful that these two weeks could stop us from getting Geno.
I"M BUYING A ****ING HENNE JERSEY!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:25 PM   #179
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#1 KC 2-10 .515 SOS
#2 JAX 2-10 .577 SOS
#3 OAK 3-9 .508 SOS
#4 CAR 3-9 .533 SOS
#5 PHI 3-8 .492 SOS

Jacksonville's remaining schedule is tough, so they have zero chance at winning a tiebreak. They must lose out and hope for a KC win.

Oakland needs Jacksonville and KC to lose a game. If that happens, the SOS tiebreak with KC will be close.

Carolina needs at least 1 win from Jacksonville (they might win that tiebreak), 2+ wins from KC, and 1 win from Oakland.

Philly is in worse shape than Carolina and is basically eliminated (though maybe the OP will produce a few simulations where they somehow make it) unless everyone starts winning games. That SOS is going to skyrocket.
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:25 PM   #180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeezNutz View Post
It's likely going to come down to losing at OAK to ensure the #1 overall pick.
Chiefs- 2-10 @CLE, @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-10 NYJ, @MIA , NE, @TEN
Carolina- 3-9 ATL , @SD , OAK , @NO
Oakland- 3-9 DEN , KC , @CAR , @SD
Browns- 4-8 KC , WASH , @DEN , @PITT
Eagels- 3-8 @TB , CINN , WASH , @NYG



Just don't see. Chiefs could go 5-11 and end up picking out of the top 5.
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