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Old 09-26-2012, 09:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:26 PM   #181
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It's possible that the defense will be without DJ, Flowers, Lewis, for a while. Dorsey already out as well.


You think we can stop Richardson next week without both our starting MLB's? Nah.

Palmer and Luck will rip up our patchwork secondary as well.

People are failing to realize just how shitty the Panthers were/are.

Although, I think our offense might actually put some things together so there is that.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:27 PM   #182
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Oakland is really the only game that worries me.

Browns are a physical team, we don't beat physical teams. Manning and Luck will be enough to beat us too.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:28 PM   #183
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I have completely given up on Alex Smith as a qb. Its painful to watch. Like, worse than watching Colt McCoy.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:31 PM   #184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post
Chiefs could go 5-11 and end up picking out of the top 5.
. LOL. Wait...
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:32 PM   #185
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Hopefully the Iggles win tonight. They could beat Dallas.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:33 PM   #186
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post
Chiefs will win last week Denver will have nothing to play for.




EDIT Nevermind Ravens shit the Bed.
On average the difference between a win and a loss in week 17 for Denver is the difference in 0.6 seed positions. Going into the week they are going to have even more uncertainty. It's pretty unlikely Denver is going to clinch their seed with one week to go.

Ravens outcome didn't affect that too much.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:33 PM   #187
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Which of those teams are most likely to draft QB? I know if we don't have the pick and the #1 pick doesn't want Geno we'll probably be too gutless to trade up, but just out of curiosity, who among the five will pick Geno?
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:33 PM   #188
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeezNutz View Post
. LOL. Wait...
Browns and Oakland are winnable games. Denver might not have anything to play for.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:39 PM   #189
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We need McFadden to get healthy.


Richardson will run all over us next week. Could be without both starting ILB's, Flowers and Lewis on D.

It will get destroyed the next couple weeks.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:42 PM
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:48 PM   #190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Even if we lose the next two we only have an 85% chance of getting the number 1 pick. Long way to go.
We need to lose the next 3 IMO. It's all about the next 3.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:48 PM   #191
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It's just so ****ing infuriating to be THIS CLOSE to a potential franchise QB.

And thinking about falling short.

Patriotards, just lose. For us.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:49 PM   #192
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Yea, I hope we lose the last three and JAX wins one so we can ram in in denver's ass at the end of the season.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:50 PM   #193
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Now:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:50 PM   #194
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
It's just so ****ing infuriating to be THIS CLOSE to a potential franchise QB.

And thinking about falling short.

Patriotards, just lose. For us.
Just think 1 Long Charles run and a Murder away from being 0-12
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:50 PM   #195
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I'm not sure a team like the Raiders would necessarily take a QB. They have so many other holes and Palmer has actually played really well.


Jacksonville on the other hand, will for sure.

So we may have to settle for Wilson if things don't go our way.
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