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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 12-02-2012, 07:14 PM   #226
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
The end of season tiebreakers for the overall #1 pick breakdown like this:

Against the Jags we almost always win

Against the Raiders we always lose.

Against Phili we win about 82% of the tiebreakers.
How often does a 4-game winner get the #1 pick? (and whats the distribution of teams for that unlikely scenario?)
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Old 12-02-2012, 07:41 PM   #227
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
How often does a 4-game winner get the #1 pick? (and whats the distribution of teams for that unlikely scenario?)
My simulator isn't really set up to answer this question easily, but a 4 win team will get the #1 pick in roughly 6% of the seasons, with Oakland the most likely team to be in this situation.
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Old 12-02-2012, 08:29 PM   #228
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:24 PM   #229
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Chiefs- 2-10 @CLE, @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-10 NYJ, @MIA , NE, @TEN
Carolina- 3-9 ATL , @SD , OAK , @NO
Oakland- 3-9 DEN , KC , @CAR , @SD
Eagels- 3-9 @TB , CINN , WASH , @NYG
Browns- 4-8 KC , WASH , @DEN , @PITT


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Old 12-02-2012, 09:40 PM   #230
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The Panthers are shit as well so Oak might sneak a win in there.


In the end tho, we've come to far to **** up now. Just swallow that pill and lose out.
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:55 PM   #231
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Current 2013 NFL Draft order following today's games: 1. Kansas City, 2. Jacksonville, 3. Oakland, 4. Philadelphia, 5. Carolina
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:56 PM   #232
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Is MJD coming back this year?
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:58 PM   #233
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Is MJD coming back this year?
Not sure but i really think they can beat the Jets at home this week.

Calling it now Oakland beats Denver Thursday night.
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:59 PM   #234
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Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post
Not sure but i really think they can beat the Jets at home this week.

Calling it now Oakland beats Denver Thursday night.
That would be very, very good news.

We should still be concerned about Jacksonville, but if we both won a game, Oakland would be our biggest threat.
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Old 12-02-2012, 10:06 PM   #235
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We just need to lose out.


Which is quite possible. Need to just sit Flowers, DJ and Lewis the rest of the way out.
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Old 12-02-2012, 10:12 PM   #236
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We just need to lose out.


Which is quite possible. Need to just sit Flowers, DJ and Lewis the rest of the way out.
What?! The true fans are just starting to have fun. Imagine how great it would feel to win another game or two. Would make the team feel good about themselves.

The more you hear and see over the losing seasons, the more this fan base deserves what it gets. Sucks for us though. People just don't really care if we win a SB. It would be nice, but not at the expense of fun on the NEXT game day.
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Old 12-02-2012, 11:01 PM   #237
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Old 12-02-2012, 11:10 PM   #238
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Shawn Zobel ‏@ShawnZobel_DHQ

Current 2013 NFL Draft order following today's games: 1. Kansas City, 2. Jacksonville, 3. Oakland, 4. Philadelphia, 5. Carolina
Zobel is a moron but I hope he gets this right.
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I have completely given up on Alex Smith as a qb. Its painful to watch. Like, worse than watching Colt McCoy.
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Old 12-02-2012, 11:51 PM   #239
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Zobel is a moron but I hope he gets this right.
For the first time all season, I've got a bad feeling. Bad as in the Chiefs choose Te'o with like the 4th pick and Glennon in the second round.

Ugh.
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Old 12-02-2012, 11:55 PM   #240
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For the first time all season, I've got a bad feeling. Bad as in the Chiefs choose Te'o with like the 4th pick and Glennon in the second round.

Ugh.
I will not be happy. Taking an ILB in the top 10 is a mistake IMO.

Drafting Glennon as your franchise QB would be a mistake as well.
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I have completely given up on Alex Smith as a qb. Its painful to watch. Like, worse than watching Colt McCoy.
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