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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 12-03-2012, 07:26 AM   #256
Tribal Warfare Tribal Warfare is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
How many Super Bowls did Marino win?

In many ways, Marino is the poster child for the "prick" QB that never could become a real leader of men.

I guess beggars can't be choosers, but I don't want Phillip Rivers or Jay Culter. Stats don't win championships, winners do.
I don't want to make excuses for the guy, but Marino was one of the most clutch QBs of all-time that never really had a defense or a running game. I'd take him in a heartbeat. If Bray gets into a situation like Favre did with Holmgren, then he'll truly set the world on fire.
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Old 12-03-2012, 07:28 AM   #257
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
So one of his "selling points" is that he'd be easier to replace?

Honestly, yes.

If you draft a QB that is OK, you might give him a few more years.


I am a Chiefs fan, we must think out of the box.
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Old 12-03-2012, 07:49 AM   #258
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Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare View Post
I don't want to make excuses for the guy, but Marino was one of the most clutch QBs of all-time that never really had a defense or a running game. I'd take him in a heartbeat. If Bray gets into a situation like Favre did with Holmgren, then he'll truly set the world on fire.
Or set the locker room on fire, one of the two.
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Old 12-03-2012, 08:16 PM   #259
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The Jags are gonna face a Jets team led by McElroy....so they could easily win.
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Old 12-03-2012, 08:42 PM   #260
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
The Jags are gonna face a Jets team led by McElroy....so they could easily win.
Im not worried about the Jaguars.
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Old 12-06-2012, 08:37 PM   #261
ChiefsandO'sfan ChiefsandO'sfan is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post

Chiefs- 2-10 @CLE, @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-10 NYJ, @MIA , NE, @TEN
Carolina- 3-9 ATL , @SD , OAK , @NO
Oakland- 3-10 KC , @CAR , @SD
Eagels- 3-9 @TB , CINN , WASH , @NYG
Browns- 4-8 KC , WASH , @DEN , @PITT

Oakland has 3 winnable games left now.
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Old 12-06-2012, 08:38 PM   #262
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Cdcox, give us an update based on the Raiders losing this game?
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Old 12-06-2012, 09:37 PM   #263
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Cdcox, give us an update based on the Raiders losing this game?
as of right this moment--about 48% 1st pick, 22% 2nd pick, 17% 3rd pick.

IF: we lose and the jags win (see also: shitty jets team), our odds go to:

65% 1st pick, 20% 2nd pick, 9% 3rd pick

IF we lose to the raiders along with the previous conditions:

93% 1st pick, 5% 2nd pick, 2% 3rd pick.

SO... the next two weeks, losing and hoping for just a BIT of help (COME ON, JAGS) and we all-but have the 1st pick sewn up.
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Old 12-06-2012, 10:06 PM   #264
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If the Chiefs, Raiders, Panthers, Jags and the Eagles all finish 3-13 where do we end up? 5th? I could see that happening to us. We are the Chiefs! The Mighty mighty Chiefs!
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Old 12-06-2012, 10:27 PM   #265
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philfree View Post
If the Chiefs, Raiders, Panthers, Jags and the Eagles all finish 3-13 where do we end up? 5th? I could see that happening to us. We are the Chiefs! The Mighty mighty Chiefs!
Carolina and Oakland can't both finish 3-13.

In any possible scenario involving a bunch of teams tied at 3-13 we will draft no worse than 3rd.
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Old 12-06-2012, 10:34 PM   #266
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Carolina and Oakland can't both finish 3-13.

In any possible scenario involving a bunch of teams tied at 3-13 we will draft no worse than 3rd.
It was just about to edit my post then I figured it would be pointed out pretty fast. No worse then 3rd. We can probably still snag a QB there but probably not Geno Smith.
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Old 12-06-2012, 10:41 PM   #267
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To me it all comes down to that Chiefs Vs Raiders game if we can lose this weekend. We MUST lose to Oakland.
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Old 12-06-2012, 11:16 PM   #268
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To me it all comes down to that Chiefs Vs Raiders game if we can lose this weekend. We MUST lose to Oakland.
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Old 12-09-2012, 01:42 PM   #269
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Old 12-09-2012, 01:48 PM   #270
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Chiefs- 2-11 @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-11 @MIA , NE, @TEN
Oakland- 3-10 KC, @CAR , @SD
Eagles- 3-10 CINN , WASH , @NYG
Carolina- 4-9 @SD , OAK , @NO
Titans- 4-9 Jets, @GB , Jags



Updated- Eagles and Jags game still going

Last edited by ChiefsandO'sfan; 12-09-2012 at 01:56 PM..
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