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Old 09-26-2012, 09:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:49 PM   #271
Count Alex's Wins Count Alex's Wins is offline
ALEX. HOW CAN THIS BE.
 
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What are the odds of winning a 2nd straight road game when we go from Cleveland all the way to Oakland the following week? That's rough.
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Old 12-09-2012, 03:21 PM   #272
Chiefs Pantalones Chiefs Pantalones is offline
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Next week is huge.
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Old 12-09-2012, 03:23 PM   #273
ChiefsandO'sfan ChiefsandO'sfan is offline
Alex Smith
 
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Chiefs- 2-11 @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-11 @MIA , NE, @TEN
Oakland- 3-10 KC, @CAR , @SD
Eagles- 4-9 CINN , WASH , @NYG
Carolina- 4-9 @SD , OAK , @NO
Titans- 4-9 Jets, @GB , Jags


Updated EAGLES WON


Updated
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Old 12-09-2012, 03:24 PM   #274
Count Alex's Wins Count Alex's Wins is offline
ALEX. HOW CAN THIS BE.
 
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We need to lose next week and we have this.

There is no way this team is beating Indy or Denver.
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Old 12-09-2012, 03:25 PM   #275
the Talking Can the Talking Can is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
What are the odds of winning a 2nd straight road game when we go from Cleveland all the way to Oakland the following week? That's rough.
without bowe?

0
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Old 12-09-2012, 03:26 PM   #276
DeezNutz DeezNutz is offline
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without bowe?

0
Baldwin is as good as Julio Jones, so we're good.
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Old 12-09-2012, 03:27 PM   #277
cdcox cdcox is offline
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55% right now.

It bumps to 78% if we can lose next week.
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Old 12-09-2012, 03:28 PM   #278
DeezNutz DeezNutz is offline
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Odds for top-3 pick?

Nearly locked up, right?
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Old 12-09-2012, 03:28 PM   #279
the Talking Can the Talking Can is offline
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our passing offense:

Quinn
McCluster
Baldwin
Newsome
Copper


and maybe brokaki

4 years of pioli
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Old 12-09-2012, 03:30 PM   #280
DeezNutz DeezNutz is offline
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I couldn't even think of Newsome's name. 4 years in, and the best players were still picked by Herm and company.

Pioli!

To think that we celebrated when this sack of shit was hired. And to think that we were lectured about his greatness by other fans.
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Old 12-09-2012, 03:32 PM   #281
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55% right now.

It bumps to 78% if we can lose next week.
What's the percentage if they win?
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Old 12-09-2012, 03:32 PM   #282
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Odds for top-3 pick?

Nearly locked up, right?
Yeah, at least 98%.
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Old 12-09-2012, 03:33 PM   #283
DeezNutz DeezNutz is offline
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Yeah, at least 98%.
Thank you.

Then we have a QB. Ideally it's Geno, but if we end up taking Wilson or Barkley, that's fine.
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Old 12-09-2012, 03:34 PM   #284
L.A. Chieffan L.A. Chieffan is offline
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it doesn't matter. this is an exercise in futility.

even if the chiefs get the #1 pick they're not going to draft a QB.
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Old 12-09-2012, 03:34 PM   #285
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What's the percentage if they win?
About 15%. We'd need to lose out while both Oakland and Jacksonville picking up a win somewhere.
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