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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:36 PM   #286
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
We need to lose next week and we have this.

There is no way this team is beating Indy or Denver.
I agree unless the Donkeys don't have anything to play for and rest Manning
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:37 PM   #287
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That's what I figured.

Honestly either way this team is going to be in a position to draft a QB. But it'll be interesting to see if they shoot themselves in the foot for the #1 pick. You never know with the Raiders.
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:37 PM   #288
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:38 PM
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:39 PM   #289
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Originally Posted by DeezNutz View Post
Edited for a fellow bad fan.
After dealing with Pioli, Crennel, and co. I would be doing myself a favor.
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:41 PM   #290
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Quote:
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After dealing with Pioli, Crennel, and co. I would be doing myself a favor.
. Wanted to. Just couldn't.
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:42 PM   #291
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. Wanted to. Just couldn't.
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:44 PM   #292
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I agree unless the Donkeys don't have anything to play for and rest Manning
Right now winning or losing in week 17 makes a 0.55 seed difference for Denver. I'm pretty sure their situation won't be solidified going into week 17.
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:45 PM   #293
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I can see it now: Crennel puts his super-voodoo jinx on Manning again, we win in Donkland AND get the number 1 pick.
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:46 PM   #294
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Quote:
Originally Posted by notorious View Post
I can see it now: Crennel puts his super-voodoo jinx on Manning again, we win in Donkland AND get the number 1 pick.
I could live with that.
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:46 PM   #295
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Right now winning or losing in week 17 makes a 0.55 seed difference for Denver. I'm pretty sure their situation won't be solidified going into week 17.
Yeah, Baltimore's loss today might have sealed that. If the Ravens won today and then beat the Broncos next week... the Mannings would've had an uphill battle for a bye. Now they're right in the mix.
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:49 PM   #296
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Right now winning or losing in week 17 makes a 0.55 seed difference for Denver. I'm pretty sure their situation won't be solidified going into week 17.
Thanks. Hope you are right I don't want the Chiefs lucking into any wins
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:50 PM   #297
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Again: Isn't it really hard to win a road game when it's:

The 2nd straight road game.

On the opposite coast from last week's game?

Seems like there's some history behind teams usually losing in that circumstance.
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:55 PM   #298
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Again: Isn't it really hard to win a road game when it's:

The 2nd straight road game.

On the opposite coast from last week's game?

Seems like there's some history behind teams usually losing in that circumstance.
Road teams playing their second strait road game after losing the first cover the spread 55% of the time.

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/nfl/a/nflroad.htm
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:55 PM   #299
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Again: Isn't it really hard to win a road game when it's:

The 2nd straight road game.

On the opposite coast from last week's game?

Seems like there's some history behind teams usually losing in that circumstance.
Yes.
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:56 PM   #300
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