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Old 09-26-2012, 09:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
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Old 12-09-2012, 04:06 PM   #301
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The Raiders can score 20 points. The Chiefs can't score 10 without Bowe.
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Old 12-09-2012, 04:09 PM   #302
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Road teams playing their second strait road game after losing the first cover the spread 55% of the time.

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/nfl/a/nflroad.htm
The spread does not equal actually winning the game.

This team has no prayer against Oakland. They can't play on the road.
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Old 12-09-2012, 04:10 PM   #303
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Originally Posted by DeezNutz View Post
Thank you.

Then we have a QB. Ideally it's Geno, but if we end up taking Wilson or Barkley, that's fine.
This.
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Old 12-09-2012, 04:13 PM   #304
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****ing Jags.
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Old 12-09-2012, 04:24 PM   #305
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****ing Jags.
Yeah-I thought they would win. God damn C**ksuckers!
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Old 12-09-2012, 04:29 PM   #306
htismaqe htismaqe is offline
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Originally Posted by The Bad Guy View Post
The spread does not equal actually winning the game.

This team has no prayer against Oakland. They can't play on the road.
I have no doubt this team will cover - it's Oakland, it will be close as always.
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Old 12-09-2012, 04:30 PM   #307
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Yeah-I thought they would win. God damn C**ksuckers!
Yeah I am still worried about the Jags.
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Old 12-09-2012, 04:57 PM   #308
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fritz88 View Post
****ing Jags.
This has nothing to do with the Jags anymore.

We lose to the Raiders we got this.

If we beat them the Raiders are probably gonna get the #1.
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Old 12-09-2012, 05:00 PM   #309
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post

If we beat them the Raiders are probably gonna get the #1.
Only if the Jags win one.
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Old 12-09-2012, 05:00 PM   #310
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KC has this. Oakland is too physical for KC. We arent playing Kyle Boller
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Old 12-09-2012, 05:03 PM   #311
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KC has this. Oakland is too physical for KC. We arent playing Kyle Boller
Yeah, and I think traveling to the west coast is really gonna make it tough.
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Old 12-09-2012, 05:07 PM   #312
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Can't see the Jaguars winning another game. Chiefs need to lose out.
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Old 12-09-2012, 05:11 PM   #313
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The Raiders can score 20 points. The Chiefs can't score 10 without Bowe.
Watch Charles have a career day...

Raiders 10 Chiefs 30
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Old 12-09-2012, 05:50 PM   #314
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We don't match up well with Oakland. For whatever reason, their defensive line destroy our offensive line every time, and our playcalling isn't sophisticated enough to recognize strengths, weaknesses, and matchups.
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Old 12-09-2012, 05:52 PM   #315
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Knowing Chiefs luck, Quinn will get hurt - ****ing Cassel comes in and beats the Raiders thus ****ing us out of the #1 draft pick.
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