Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Lounge

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-26-2012, 09:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $19155
Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
Posts: 32,666
cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-09-2012, 05:55 PM   #316
Bewbies Bewbies is offline
Where's the flag ref?
 
Bewbies's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2010
Casino cash: $8337
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Yeah, and I think traveling to the west coast is really gonna make it tough.
We would lose if Oakland had to travel to Mars to play us.
Posts: 6,601
Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-09-2012, 06:03 PM   #317
WildTurkey WildTurkey is offline
I'm done Chiefs, Go Pack Go
 
WildTurkey's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2009
Location: Iowa
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
Can't see the Jaguars winning another game. Chiefs need to lose out.
They could beat Tennessee but I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket
Posts: 2,007
WildTurkey must have mowed badgirl's lawn.WildTurkey must have mowed badgirl's lawn.WildTurkey must have mowed badgirl's lawn.WildTurkey must have mowed badgirl's lawn.WildTurkey must have mowed badgirl's lawn.WildTurkey must have mowed badgirl's lawn.WildTurkey must have mowed badgirl's lawn.WildTurkey must have mowed badgirl's lawn.WildTurkey must have mowed badgirl's lawn.WildTurkey must have mowed badgirl's lawn.WildTurkey must have mowed badgirl's lawn.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-09-2012, 06:16 PM   #318
Rain Man Rain Man is offline
No known superpowers
 
Rain Man's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: In A World Few See
Casino cash: $13641
VARSITY
I'm sure it's been discussed somewhere, but if the Jags get the first pick would they go for a quarterback? If not, we could be saved by all the whining that Geno's not worth a #1 pick, because if that's true then no one will trade up for him.
__________________
Chiefs Football - 2014 (and every other year)

Posts: 78,382
Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-09-2012, 06:34 PM   #319
BigRedChief BigRedChief is online now
Brainwashed
 
BigRedChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Swims with fishes
Casino cash: $18755
VARSITY
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fritz88 View Post
****ing Jags.
We need the #1 pick. Both Oakland and the Jags could take a QB. We need to identify our QOTF and pick him #1.

I don't give a shit that our QOTF is slotted on mocks to go at pick #5. We have blew two top 5 picks in the last few years. Get the best QB and go on to round 2.
__________________
If you don't have a seat at the table, you're probably on the menu
Posts: 44,884
BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-09-2012, 06:37 PM   #320
BigRedChief BigRedChief is online now
Brainwashed
 
BigRedChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Swims with fishes
Casino cash: $18755
VARSITY
Quote:
Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
Can't see the Jaguars winning another game. Chiefs need to lose out.
yep, Tennessee looked good today.
__________________
If you don't have a seat at the table, you're probably on the menu
Posts: 44,884
BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-09-2012, 07:07 PM   #321
Old Dog Old Dog is offline
Supporter
 
Old Dog's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: North Central Kansas
Casino cash: $12423
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man View Post
For whatever reason, their defensive line destroy our offensive line every time,
I'm gonna go with, "Their D-line isn't bad and our offensive line sucks balls" for $1000.
Posts: 9,462
Old Dog is obviously part of the inner Circle.Old Dog is obviously part of the inner Circle.Old Dog is obviously part of the inner Circle.Old Dog is obviously part of the inner Circle.Old Dog is obviously part of the inner Circle.Old Dog is obviously part of the inner Circle.Old Dog is obviously part of the inner Circle.Old Dog is obviously part of the inner Circle.Old Dog is obviously part of the inner Circle.Old Dog is obviously part of the inner Circle.Old Dog is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-09-2012, 07:12 PM   #322
BigCatDaddy BigCatDaddy is offline
Kicking Ass and Chewing Bubble
 
BigCatDaddy's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: St. Joseph
Casino cash: $13827
There are two top notch QB's in this draft. We'll end up with the 3rd pick.
__________________
"I voiced my opinion and announced I was forced to suck my babysitter's son's cock" - Red Guerilla (BlackBob) (Now known as CallMeSquidward) (Now known as John Dope)
Posts: 13,330
BigCatDaddy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.BigCatDaddy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.BigCatDaddy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.BigCatDaddy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.BigCatDaddy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.BigCatDaddy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.BigCatDaddy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.BigCatDaddy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.BigCatDaddy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.BigCatDaddy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.BigCatDaddy 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2012, 11:32 PM   #323
tk13 tk13 is offline
...
 
tk13's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2001
Casino cash: $19045
Here's the weirdest stuff I can come up with for the final three weeks.

The Colts will win the AFC South if they win their final three games now. There are actually scenarios out there where they could be the #1 overall seed, but it would require the Pats to stumble against someone they shouldn't lose to. If they won out a #2 seed wouldn't be completely unrealistic given the other teams' schedules though.

The funniest thing though while playing with ESPN's playoff machine... Cleveland still technically has a shot if they win out. I was able to get them in as a 6 seed. Never going to happen with their schedule though. The really funny thing was the Chargers still have a chance too at 8-8. Still a complete longshot but really not completely unrealistic if the Bengals and Steelers slipped up. Nothing like Pittsburgh having to lose to Jacksonville would be required. Four more years of Norv!
Posts: 37,472
tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2012, 11:35 PM   #324
Nightfyre Nightfyre is online now
MVP
 
Nightfyre's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Helena, MT
Casino cash: $1008275
If we lose vs. OAK and JAX wins vs. TEN do we own the #1 pick at that point even if we beat Denver?
Posts: 16,132
Nightfyre has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Nightfyre has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Nightfyre has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Nightfyre has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Nightfyre has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Nightfyre has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Nightfyre has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Nightfyre has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Nightfyre has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Nightfyre has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Nightfyre has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2012, 11:55 PM   #325
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $19155
Quote:
Originally Posted by tk13 View Post
Here's the weirdest stuff I can come up with for the final three weeks.

The Colts will win the AFC South if they win their final three games now. There are actually scenarios out there where they could be the #1 overall seed, but it would require the Pats to stumble against someone they shouldn't lose to. If they won out a #2 seed wouldn't be completely unrealistic given the other teams' schedules though.

The funniest thing though while playing with ESPN's playoff machine... Cleveland still technically has a shot if they win out. I was able to get them in as a 6 seed. Never going to happen with their schedule though. The really funny thing was the Chargers still have a chance too at 8-8. Still a complete longshot but really not completely unrealistic if the Bengals and Steelers slipped up. Nothing like Pittsburgh having to lose to Jacksonville would be required. Four more years of Norv!
If Indy wins out, they have a 16% chance of getting the number 1 seed and a 48% chance of getting the 2 seed.

If Cleveland wins out, they have a 20% shot of making the playoffs.

If San Diego wins out, they have a 10% chance of making the playoffs.

This took about 3 minutes with my software.
Posts: 32,666
cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2012, 11:56 PM   #326
Count Alex's Losses Count Alex's Losses is online now
Banned
 
Count Alex's Losses's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2002
Casino cash: $39024
It's good to know we'll get Indy's best shot.
__________________
Better to be the bastard child of a king and his whore than to be a ****ing peasant at the shite homer trough.
Posts: 172,095
Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2012, 11:56 PM   #327
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $19155
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightfyre View Post
If we lose vs. OAK and JAX wins vs. TEN do we own the #1 pick at that point even if we beat Denver?
Yes, as long as we lose to Indy.
Posts: 32,666
cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-11-2012, 12:06 AM   #328
tk13 tk13 is offline
...
 
tk13's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2001
Casino cash: $19045
I figured you'd have the numbers. I guess those numbers aren't surprising. Although Cleveland's schedule is brutal, no way they win out. San Diego actually has a legit shot to win out with their schedule. It would require Cincy and Pittsburgh to stumble a bit though.

Still, I think Denver quitting will be a bigger concern for us than Indy. It's now set up where New England could win out and make Denver's last game pointless at 4:25 that last Sunday. The Niners winning in NE next week could actually help the Chiefs draft chances by keeping Denver in play.
Posts: 37,472
tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.tk13 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-11-2012, 12:10 AM   #329
Count Alex's Losses Count Alex's Losses is online now
Banned
 
Count Alex's Losses's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2002
Casino cash: $39024
Don't think there's any way the Chiefs try to win that game in Denver anyway.

If they are within 1 loss of the #1 pick they'll do what they can to ensure it happens.
__________________
Better to be the bastard child of a king and his whore than to be a ****ing peasant at the shite homer trough.
Posts: 172,095
Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Losses is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-11-2012, 12:58 AM   #330
Tribal Warfare Tribal Warfare is offline
The Boom Boom Room
 
Tribal Warfare's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Far Beyond Comprehension
Casino cash: $10084
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy View Post
There are two top notch QB's in this draft. We'll end up with the 3rd pick.
possibly 3 if Bray gets his shit together
__________________
Posts: 28,730
Tribal Warfare threw an interception on a screen pass.Tribal Warfare threw an interception on a screen pass.Tribal Warfare threw an interception on a screen pass.Tribal Warfare threw an interception on a screen pass.Tribal Warfare threw an interception on a screen pass.Tribal Warfare threw an interception on a screen pass.Tribal Warfare threw an interception on a screen pass.Tribal Warfare threw an interception on a screen pass.Tribal Warfare threw an interception on a screen pass.Tribal Warfare threw an interception on a screen pass.Tribal Warfare threw an interception on a screen pass.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:04 PM.


This is a test for a client's site.
A new website that shows member-created construction site listings that need fill or have excess fill. Dirt Monkey @ https://DirtMonkey.net
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.