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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 12-16-2012, 05:29 PM   #361
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
As of now there is a 70% chance that the last Denver game means something to them.
Yeah, but what's that number if they beat San Francisco tonight? I can't imagine very good considering what's left on their schedule.
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Old 12-16-2012, 05:30 PM   #362
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Originally Posted by tk13 View Post
They're at home against Miami.

Next week they are at Jacksonville... so if they can win tonight the odds are in their favor I'd say.

Houston is at home against Minnesota and then @Indy. They'd have to lose both though to fall behind Denver.
OK so we need NE to lose tonight then win the last two so Denver has to play against us.
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Old 12-16-2012, 05:32 PM   #363
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OK so we need NE to lose tonight then win the last two so Denver has to play against us.
Well, NE plays JAX next week, so if they would lose that one it wouldn't matter. But we know that won't happen
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Old 12-16-2012, 05:33 PM   #364
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Originally Posted by tk13 View Post
Yeah, but what's that number if they beat San Francisco tonight? I can't imagine very good considering what's left on their schedule.
About a 40% chance. So go 9ers!
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:20 PM   #365
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
sweet, 70% .. I'll take that.

I'll admit, I am worried about Denver having nothing to play for and screwing us over by losing.
Yeah but what does Nate Silver say?
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:50 PM   #366
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
As of now there is a 70% chance that the last Denver game means something to them.
Are you considering the fact that we have the afternoon game? What are the odds that the game will mean something to them at 3pm?
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:51 PM   #367
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Are you considering the fact that we have the afternoon game? What are the odds that the game will mean something to them at 3pm?
The NFL will move all the games back to 4pm for teams in the playoff hunt.
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:55 PM   #368
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The NFL will move all the games back to 4pm for teams in the playoff hunt.
link?
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:56 PM   #369
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Originally Posted by h5n1 View Post
link?
Happens every year.
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:57 PM   #370
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Happens every year.
I don't remember this happening at all. Only one game can be flexed. No other changes have ever been made iirc
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Old 12-16-2012, 07:01 PM   #371
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http://ten.247sports.com/Article/NFL...-Schedule-9498

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The NFL utilizes “flexible scheduling” on Sundays in Weeks 11-17. To ensure a Sunday night game and doubleheader games with playoff implications in Week 17, the flexible scheduling decision for that Sunday may be made on six days notice.
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Old 12-16-2012, 07:45 PM   #372
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Barring two wins by either team, the Chiefs & Jaguars will own the first two picks of the 2013 NFL Draft. Who picks first remains to be
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Old 12-16-2012, 07:49 PM   #373
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Shawn Zobel‏@ShawnZobel_DHQ

Barring two wins by either team, the Chiefs & Jaguars will own the first two picks of the 2013 NFL Draft. Who picks first remains to be
Hey Shawn, maybe if you weren't a 21-year old dumbass you'd know, like us.
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Old 12-16-2012, 08:08 PM   #374
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Old 12-16-2012, 08:50 PM   #375
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So is this potential loss by the Pats good for us?
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