Chiefs Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 - Page 25

cdcox · 02:26 PM

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being *****ed by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

tk13 · 12-16-2012, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

As of now there is a 70% chance that the last Denver game means something to them.

Yeah, but what's that number if they beat San Francisco tonight? I can't imagine very good considering what's left on their schedule.

**Guru** · 12-16-2012, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13

They're at home against Miami.

Next week they are at Jacksonville... so if they can win tonight the odds are in their favor I'd say.

Houston is at home against Minnesota and then @Indy. They'd have to lose both though to fall behind Denver.

OK so we need NE to lose tonight then win the last two so Denver has to play against us.

ILChief · 12-16-2012, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guru

OK so we need NE to lose tonight then win the last two so Denver has to play against us.

Well, NE plays JAX next week, so if they would lose that one it wouldn't matter. But we know that won't happen

cdcox · 12-16-2012, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13

Yeah, but what's that number if they beat San Francisco tonight? I can't imagine very good considering what's left on their schedule.

About a 40% chance. So go 9ers!

**J Diddy** · 12-16-2012, 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief

sweet, 70% .. I'll take that.

I'll admit, I am worried about Denver having nothing to play for and screwing us over by losing.

Yeah but what does Nate Silver say?

alnorth · 12-16-2012, 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

As of now there is a 70% chance that the last Denver game means something to them.

Are you considering the fact that we have the afternoon game? What are the odds that the game will mean something to them at 3pm?

ChiefsandO'sfan · 12-16-2012, 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

Are you considering the fact that we have the afternoon game? What are the odds that the game will mean something to them at 3pm?

The NFL will move all the games back to 4pm for teams in the playoff hunt.

Ebolapox · 12-16-2012, 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan

The NFL will move all the games back to 4pm for teams in the playoff hunt.

link?

ChiefsandO'sfan · 12-16-2012, 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by h5n1

link?

Happens every year.

JASONSAUTO · 12-16-2012, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan

Happens every year.

I don't remember this happening at all. Only one game can be flexed. No other changes have ever been made iirc
Posted via Mobile Device

ChiefsandO'sfan · 12-16-2012, 07:01 PM

http://www.musiccitymiracles.com/201...itans-stay-put

2011

http://ten.247sports.com/Article/NFL...-Schedule-9498

2010

The NFL utilizes “flexible scheduling” on Sundays in Weeks 11-17. To ensure a Sunday night game and doubleheader games with playoff implications in Week 17, the flexible scheduling decision for that Sunday may be made on six days notice.

ChiefsandO'sfan · 12-16-2012, 07:45 PM

Shawn Zobel‏@ShawnZobel_DHQ

Barring two wins by either team, the Chiefs & Jaguars will own the first two picks of the 2013 NFL Draft. Who picks first remains to be

Branden Albert's Huge Balls · 12-16-2012, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan

Shawn Zobel‏@ShawnZobel_DHQ

Barring two wins by either team, the Chiefs & Jaguars will own the first two picks of the 2013 NFL Draft. Who picks first remains to be

Hey Shawn, maybe if you weren't a 21-year old dumbass you'd know, like us.

Dr. Gigglepants · 12-16-2012, 08:08 PM

Indy already 6 point favorite. WE GOT THIS
Posted via Mobile Device

Chiefs Pantalones · 12-16-2012, 08:50 PM

So is this potential loss by the Pats good for us?

09-26-2012, 08:12 PM
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $1362441	Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 nfl-forecast.com is back for another season. After Week 3 As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%. The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post. Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being ***ed by the Cassel maneuver. Midway through Week 12 We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick. We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time. The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs. Midway through week 13 As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick: KC 55% Jax 24% Oakland 15% Philly 4% Field 2% Midway through week 14 KC 55% Jax 31% Oakland 14% Only 3 with decent odds. Midway through week 15 KC 70% Jac 30% Oakland <<1% KC guaranteed a top 3 spot Midway through week 16** KC 92% Jax 8% Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties). Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
Posts: 28,125

12-16-2012, 07:01 PM	#371
ChiefsandO'sfan MVP Join Date: Feb 2009 Casino cash: $1368438	http://www.musiccitymiracles.com/201...itans-stay-put 2011 http://ten.247sports.com/Article/NFL...-Schedule-9498 2010 The NFL utilizes “flexible scheduling” on Sundays in Weeks 11-17. To ensure a Sunday night game and doubleheader games with playoff implications in Week 17, the flexible scheduling decision for that Sunday may be made on six days notice. __________________ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohoRCFslH3E Last edited by ChiefsandO'sfan; 12-16-2012 at 07:12 PM..
Posts: 12,477

12-16-2012, 07:45 PM	#372
ChiefsandO'sfan MVP Join Date: Feb 2009 Casino cash: $1368438	Shawn Zobel‏@ShawnZobel_DHQ Barring two wins by either team, the Chiefs & Jaguars will own the first two picks of the 2013 NFL Draft. Who picks first remains to be __________________ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohoRCFslH3E
Posts: 12,477

12-16-2012, 08:08 PM	#374
Dr. Gigglepants Starter Join Date: Apr 2011 Casino cash: $23818	Indy already 6 point favorite. WE GOT THIS Posted via Mobile Device
Posts: 929

12-16-2012, 08:50 PM	#375
Chiefs Pantalones GO CHIEFS!!!!!! Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Arrowhead Casino cash: $89025	So is this potential loss by the Pats good for us? __________________ Looking for lower level seats for the Cowboys at Chiefs tickets for the smelly pirate hooker Cowboys fan wife and I!
Posts: 21,747

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