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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 12-23-2012, 02:57 PM   #391
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The only thing worse than that sign is seeing someone still wearing a Joe Montana jersey.
I disagree. That sign is awesome and I'd like to give the holder a huge hug.
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Old 12-23-2012, 03:59 PM   #392
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Originally Posted by Chiefs Pantalones View Post
Yes, because if we end up tied with them we own the tiebreaker. So we can win if they win.
Would rather lose anyway so we have the 1st pick in each round rather than only in the odd numbered rounds.
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Old 12-23-2012, 04:07 PM   #393
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Originally Posted by Spott View Post
The only thing worse than that sign is seeing someone still wearing a Joe Montana jersey.
I bought my Montana Mitchell and Ness back in 1994 (that same jersey I think) and still wear it to games that matter. Goes without saying that I haven't wore it for awhile...theist time was the Baltimore playoff game.
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Old 12-23-2012, 04:10 PM   #394
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Would rather lose anyway so we have the 1st pick in each round rather than only in the odd numbered rounds.
Absolutely.
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Old 12-23-2012, 04:26 PM   #395
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Would rather lose anyway so we have the 1st pick in each round rather than only in the odd numbered rounds.
I'm down.
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Old 12-23-2012, 04:29 PM   #396
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We're so close now...
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Old 12-23-2012, 04:39 PM   #397
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We're so close now...
Yet we will probably find some way to **** it up.

Watch Pioli do something stupid and the NFL penalize us our first round pick,
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Old 12-23-2012, 04:40 PM   #398
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I dunno. I think I would rather see Jacksonville win and watch the Chiefs knock the Broncos off a playoff bye simultaneously knocking them off their pedestal.
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Old 12-23-2012, 04:41 PM   #399
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I dunno. I think I would rather see Jacksonville win and watch the Chiefs knock the Broncos off a playoff bye simultaneously knocking them off their pedestal.
While Charles runs for 300 yards breaking APs record. And finishes the year with 1700+ yrds
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Old 12-23-2012, 04:43 PM   #400
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esWhile Charles runs for 300 yards breaking APs record. And finishes the year with 1700+ yrds
He should have done that at Denver a couple years ago but got pulled out.
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Old 12-23-2012, 04:54 PM   #401
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Yet we will probably find some way to **** it up.

Watch Pioli do something stupid and the NFL penalize us our first round pick,
You shut your whore mouth!
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Old 12-23-2012, 04:58 PM   #402
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Yet we will probably find some way to **** it up.

Watch Pioli do something stupid and the NFL penalize us our first round pick,
Speaking of Pioli, he hasn't been seen in weeks. Thankfully.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:01 PM   #403
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He should have done that at Denver a couple years ago but got pulled out.
Yea thats bugged me a little for 3 years now. Wouldve been awesome.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:13 PM   #404
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Speaking of Pioli, he hasn't been seen in weeks. Thankfully.
I think he was spotted on the field before the game last week.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:14 PM   #405
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So will Denver sit Manning?

If the Colts beat the Texans they will play to win for sure.
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