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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:14 PM   #406
Nightfyre Nightfyre is offline
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I saw him on the TV mixing it up with the players before the game. Coulda been old footage or something though.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:14 PM   #407
The Bad Guy The Bad Guy is offline
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We have the #1 pick.

This game doesn't even need to be played next week.

The line should be Broncos -20.5
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:16 PM   #408
The Bad Guy The Bad Guy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
So will Denver sit Manning?

If the Colts beat the Texans they will play to win for sure.
The Broncos aren't sitting Manning.

The Patriots aren't going to lose to the Dolphins.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:16 PM   #409
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Dog View Post
Would rather lose anyway so we have the 1st pick in each round rather than only in the odd numbered rounds.
I'd rather win and take away homefield advantage from the Broncos.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:17 PM   #410
ChiefsandO'sfan ChiefsandO'sfan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
So will Denver sit Manning?

If the Colts beat the Texans they will play to win for sure.
All the Games that mean something will be FLEXED to 4pm kickoff
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:18 PM   #411
RUSH RUSH is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
So will Denver sit Manning?

If the Colts beat the Texans they will play to win for sure.
NE holds the tiebreaker over Denver.

So if NE beats Miami at 1 (likely) then they will play for the bye.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:18 PM   #412
Nightfyre Nightfyre is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
So will Denver sit Manning?

If the Colts beat the Texans they will play to win for sure.
If New England wins, Denver will need the win to seal the bye week because New England has the head-to-head.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:20 PM   #413
BossChief BossChief is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -King- View Post
I'd rather win and take away homefield advantage from the Broncos.
That's stupid. Sorry.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:21 PM   #414
The Bad Guy The Bad Guy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post
All the Games that mean something will be FLEXED to 4pm kickoff
They aren't flexing 5 games to 4.

The Dolphins/Pats, Vikings/Green Bay, Redskins/Cowboys, Ravens/Bengals, and Texans/Colts all have some meaning.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:21 PM   #415
Guru Guru is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -King- View Post
I'd rather win and take away homefield advantage from the Broncos.
there are more important things to worry about at this point.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:21 PM   #416
ChiefsandO'sfan ChiefsandO'sfan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RUSH View Post
NE holds the tiebreaker over Denver.

So if NE beats Miami at 1 (likely) then they will play for the bye.
That game will be flexed to 4pm
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:21 PM   #417
ChiefsandO'sfan ChiefsandO'sfan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bad Guy View Post
They aren't flexing 5 games to 4.

The Dolphins/Pats, Vikings/Green Bay, Redskins/Cowboys, Ravens/Bengals, and Texans/Colts all have some meaning.
Wanna bet?
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:21 PM   #418
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post
That game will be flexed to 4pm
lets hope so.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:22 PM   #419
The Bad Guy The Bad Guy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BossChief View Post
That's stupid. Sorry.
Sure is.

It's more of the immediate future as opposed to the long term success.

No Chief fan should be rooting for Kansas City next week.

Control your own destiny with the pick and get the ****ing guy you want.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:22 PM   #420
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Denver is NOT going to sit Manning regardless of what happens with New England.

The stats don't lie, momentum is important going into the playoffs. Teams that rest starters end up losing.
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