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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:24 PM   #421
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Quote:
Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
Denver is NOT going to sit Manning regardless of what happens with New England.

The stats don't lie, momentum is important going into the playoffs. Teams that rest starters end up losing.
Manning can attest to that with the colts too.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:24 PM   #422
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post
Wanna bet?
Show me a link where it says it's going to flex any game that has meaning to 4.

Because there's actually 2 more games that have meaning Eagles/Giants, and Bears/Lions.

What would be the point of flexing 7 games into a 4 o'clock slot? The ratings surely won't improve that much from a 1-4.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:25 PM   #423
ChiefsandO'sfan ChiefsandO'sfan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bad Guy View Post
Show me a link where it says it's going to flex any game that has meaning to 4.

Because there's actually 2 more games that have meaning Eagles/Giants, and Bears/Lions.

What would be the point of flexing 7 games into a 4 o'clock slot? The ratings surely won't improve that much from a 1-4.
It happens every year. It will come out tonight don't need to link it.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:26 PM   #424
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bad Guy View Post
Show me a link where it says it's going to flex any game that has meaning to 4.

Because there's actually 2 more games that have meaning Eagles/Giants, and Bears/Lions.

What would be the point of flexing 7 games into a 4 o'clock slot? The ratings surely won't improve that much from a 1-4.
Who cares. Just flex NE to 4pm to eliminate any possibility of Denver sitting starters.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:27 PM   #425
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BossChief View Post
That's stupid. Sorry.
How is it stupid? Not wanting the Broncos to have an easy road to the superbowl is not stupid. If it means picking 34th instead of 33rd in the second round... so be it.

If picking 1 spot back for 3 rounds means that the Broncos have to go through either New England or Houston to get to the Superbowl, then I'm down for it.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:27 PM   #426
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guru View Post
Who cares. Just flex NE to 4pm to eliminate any possibility of Denver sitting starters.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:27 PM   #427
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -King- View Post
How is it stupid? Not wanting the Broncos to have an easy road to the superbowl is not stupid. If it means picking 34th instead of 33rd in the second round... so be it.

If picking 1 spot back for 3 rounds means that the Broncos have to go through either New England or Houston to get to the Superbowl, then I'm down for it.
Picking #1 overall is what we want.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:28 PM   #428
htismaqe htismaqe is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -King- View Post
How is it stupid? Not wanting the Broncos to have an easy road to the superbowl is not stupid. If it means picking 34th instead of 33rd in the second round... so be it.

If picking 1 spot back for 3 rounds means that the Broncos have to go through either New England or Houston to get to the Superbowl, then I'm down for it.
Yeah that's stupid.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:29 PM   #429
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
So will Denver sit Manning?

If the Colts beat the Texans they will play to win for sure.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bewbies View Post
Picking #1 overall is what we want.
And thats what we'll get. Wanting to beat the donks is only if the Jags win first
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:29 PM   #430
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bad Guy View Post
Sure is.

It's more of the immediate future as opposed to the long term success.

No Chief fan should be rooting for Kansas City next week.

Control your own destiny with the pick and get the ****ing guy you want.
Exactly. If Jacksonville bests Tennessee (actually possible) and we lose to Denver, we get the first pick each of the three days of the draft. That's a big advantage to be able to rearrange your board and get the guy you want and not have to go to plan b...especially in a draft that is very deep in a few positions of need for us (qb, DL, etc)

Having that first pick in the second, third and fourth rounds is gonna give us a sizable advantage.

I couldn't care any less where Denver plays their playoff games.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:30 PM   #431
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Who gives a shit about Denver this year? Who gives a shit about the entire NFL this year?

The 2012 season is all about the future for KC, nothing to gain in the present.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:30 PM   #432
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bad Guy View Post
Sure is.

It's more of the immediate future as opposed to the long term success.

No Chief fan should be rooting for Kansas City next week.

Control your own destiny with the pick and get the ****ing guy you want.
The only downside to us winning next week is we have to alternate the first pick in the 2nd, 4th, and 6th round with the Jags. Having to move back 1 spot for 3 picks is a small price to pay if it means that the Broncos won't get to stay at home throughout the playoffs.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:32 PM   #433
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -King- View Post
The only downside to us winning next week is we have to alternate the first pick in the 2nd, 4th, and 6th round with the Jags. Having to move back 1 spot for 3 picks is a small price to pay if it means that the Broncos won't get to stay at home throughout the playoffs.
The Jags would get the First pick in every round.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:32 PM   #434
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Originally Posted by Bewbies View Post
Picking #1 overall is what we want.
We're picking #1 overall regardless in this scenario. The only thing that changes if we win is that we'll switch picks with the Jags for the 2nd, 4th, and 6th round.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:33 PM   #435
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The Jags would get the First pick in round 1.
Can you read the 1st post I quoted? This is all assuming the Jags win next week.
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