Chiefs Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 - Page 6

cdcox · 02:26 PM

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

theelusiveeightrop · 10-17-2012, 07:06 AM

We might be outsucked by Oakland. Al may be dead, but the Raiders are still capable of extreme levels of stupidity.

**Rain Man** · 10-17-2012, 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bwana

Heh, yeah I could see Chrome Dome trading off the number one pick for extra picks and picking up a scrub QB in round 3. I wouldn't be all that shocked. The board would go into a meltdown like it has never seen before.

You're forgetting something. The Chiefs don't draft quarterbacks in Round 3.

Branden Albert's Huge Balls · 10-29-2012, 12:55 AM

Things are looking up.

NJChiefsFan · 10-29-2012, 02:15 AM

We learned from last year. Made some rookie mistakes in trying to suck for a QB. Had a semi-decent QB on the roster to end the season, beat an undefeated team, and threw a Hail Mary. This year, we put Romeo in charge full time, he stopped making the players care, and we brought in Quinn.

AussieChiefsFan · 10-29-2012, 03:07 AM

So wer're mathematically out of the playoffs for sure now?

BryanBusby · 10-29-2012, 03:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AussieChiefsFan

So wer're mathematically out of the playoffs for sure now?

The AFC is bad and the Chiefs haven't even reached 8 losses yet, so no.

Probably have another month to go before they are mathematically, assuming they continue to go winless.

AussieChiefsFan · 10-29-2012, 03:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

The AFC is bad and the Chiefs haven't even reached 8 losses yet, so no.

Probably have another month to go before they are mathematically, assuming they continue to go winless.

yea thats what I thought. Just wondered because the graph says 0%

Branden Albert's Huge Balls · 11-04-2012, 10:43 PM

awww yeah

Pawnmower · 11-04-2012, 10:46 PM

wow it will be pretty cool if we do get a 1st overall pick

it will be our super bowl

I hope the project freakishly amazing yet not quite ready for NFL D-Lineman we end up with turns out to be a beast in 2017

PornChief · 11-04-2012, 10:47 PM

I prefer stats in pie chart form

cdcox · 11-04-2012, 10:48 PM

I prefer pie in bar chart form.

BossChief · 11-04-2012, 11:14 PM

That first one is like the size of my boner the closer we get to the top pick.

I just hope Clark fires Pioli because if he doesn't I would put it at 50-50 of Pioli taking a qb at that spot of trading down and taking another position and taking a qb in the second or third round.

htismaqe · 11-05-2012, 06:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

wow it will be pretty cool if we do get a 1st overall pick

it will be our super bowl

I hope the project freakishly amazing yet not quite ready for NFL D-Lineman we end up with turns out to be a beast in 2017

Don't do that!

theelusiveeightrop · 11-05-2012, 06:27 AM

Omaha. Can we outsuck Jax? Omaha.

Bewbies · 11-05-2012, 06:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theelusiveeightrop

Omaha. Can we outsuck Jax? Omaha.

Jax would beat us by 20. We are the worst team any of us will ever watch.

09-26-2012, 08:12 PM
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $1363970	Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 nfl-forecast.com is back for another season. After Week 3 As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%. The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post. Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver. Midway through Week 12 We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick. We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time. The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs. Midway through week 13 As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick: KC 55% Jax 24% Oakland 15% Philly 4% Field 2% Midway through week 14 KC 55% Jax 31% Oakland 14% Only 3 with decent odds. Midway through week 15 KC 70% Jac 30% Oakland <<1% KC guaranteed a top 3 spot Midway through week 16 KC 92% Jax 8% Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties). Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
Posts: 28,288

10-17-2012, 07:06 AM	#76
theelusiveeightrop 2thdoc Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Dante's Ninth Circle Casino cash: $27966	We might be outsucked by Oakland. Al may be dead, but the Raiders are still capable of extreme levels of stupidity.
Posts: 5,411

10-29-2012, 12:55 AM	#78
Branden Albert's Huge Balls ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGH Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: In the Soup Nazis Kitchen Casino cash: $160506	Things are looking up. __________________ Alex Smith's career record when the opponent scores at least 24 points: 2-27-1
Posts: 151,798

10-29-2012, 02:15 AM	#79
NJChiefsFan I've Made a Huge Mistake Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: NJ Casino cash: $986487	We learned from last year. Made some rookie mistakes in trying to suck for a QB. Had a semi-decent QB on the roster to end the season, beat an undefeated team, and threw a Hail Mary. This year, we put Romeo in charge full time, he stopped making the players care, and we brought in Quinn. __________________ 6 of 12 QB's in the playoffs are 1st or 2nd year players. Oh how scary it is to go young at the QB position.
Posts: 4,921

10-29-2012, 03:07 AM	#80
AussieChiefsFan ¡Mayday! .... All Day ... Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Sydney, Australia Casino cash: $26027672	So wer're mathematically out of the playoffs for sure now? __________________
Posts: 8,100

11-04-2012, 10:43 PM	#83
Branden Albert's Huge Balls ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGH Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: In the Soup Nazis Kitchen Casino cash: $160506	awww yeah __________________ Alex Smith's career record when the opponent scores at least 24 points: 2-27-1
Posts: 151,798

11-04-2012, 10:46 PM	#84
Pawnmower MVP Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Northern California Casino cash: $6225188	wow it will be pretty cool if we do get a 1st overall pick it will be our super bowl I hope the project freakishly amazing yet not quite ready for NFL D-Lineman we end up with turns out to be a beast in 2017 __________________ Click here to try a chess problem! (easy, medium or hard) ************* Click here for the list of the Chiefs biggest Cowards and Traitors. This list is A.K.A. the shun list.
Posts: 11,841

11-04-2012, 10:47 PM	#85
PornChief Starter Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Australia Casino cash: $7982	I prefer stats in pie chart form
Posts: 514

11-04-2012, 10:48 PM	#86
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $1363970	I prefer pie in bar chart form.
Posts: 28,288

11-04-2012, 11:14 PM	#87
BossChief Here we go again. Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: BF Iowa Casino cash: $5329126	That first one is like the size of my boner the closer we get to the top pick. I just hope Clark fires Pioli because if he doesn't I would put it at 50-50 of Pioli taking a qb at that spot of trading down and taking another position and taking a qb in the second or third round. __________________
Posts: 24,246

11-05-2012, 06:27 AM	#89
theelusiveeightrop 2thdoc Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Dante's Ninth Circle Casino cash: $27966	Omaha. Can we outsuck Jax? Omaha. __________________ "We're both part of the same hypocrisy, senator, but never think it applies to my family."
Posts: 5,411

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode