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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
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Old 11-05-2012, 03:18 PM   #91
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Originally Posted by Pawnmower View Post
wow it will be pretty cool if we do get a 1st overall pick

it will be our super bowl


I hope the project freakishly amazing yet not quite ready for NFL D-Lineman we end up with turns out to be a beast in 2017
Oh damn, good point. To avoid this I am now going to root for them to win a couple games and finish like 5-11. It won't due us any good whatsoever but at least the world will be black and white to me again. Admitting there is a grey area gives me a headache anyway........
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Old 11-05-2012, 05:02 PM   #92
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It should be pointed out that we have a 62 percent chance at the #1 pick.

The next closest team,JAX, is only at 20 percent and Cleveland is at 9 percent.
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Old 11-05-2012, 05:05 PM   #93
BigMeatballBillay BigMeatballBillay is offline
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How the **** is Jax only at 20%?
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Old 11-05-2012, 05:14 PM   #94
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How the **** is Jax only at 20%?
No idea. They have to play the Titans 2X, the NYJ, Miami and Buffalo. I could see them winning 2-3 games.
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Old 11-05-2012, 05:15 PM   #95
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How the **** is Jax only at 20%?
Because we are that ****ing bad.

We have been blown out MORE than the Jags this year AND over the last four years.
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Old 11-13-2012, 07:23 PM   #96
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Improved play by the Chiefs and worse play by the Jags have dropped our odds of getting the overall #1 pick to 57%.
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Old 11-13-2012, 07:58 PM   #97
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Improved play by the Chiefs and worse play by the Jags have dropped our odds of getting the overall #1 pick to 57%.
I must have missed a game...
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Old 11-13-2012, 08:06 PM   #98
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Improved play by the Chiefs and worse play by the Jags have dropped our odds of getting the overall #1 pick to 57%.
HELL YES, LET'S DANCE
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Old 11-13-2012, 08:16 PM   #99
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Factoids.

If we win the rest of our games, we have a 25% chance of making the playoffs at 8-8.

Even under certain 7-9 scenarios, we can qualify for the playoffs, either as a division winner or as a wild card.
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Old 11-13-2012, 08:50 PM   #100
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Oh cool, sign Pioli to an extension while they are hot
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Old 11-13-2012, 09:04 PM   #101
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Factoids.

If we win the rest of our games, we have a 25% chance of making the playoffs at 8-8.

Even under certain 7-9 scenarios, we can qualify for the playoffs, either as a division winner or as a wild card.
I guess that's not too surprising. Even though the AFC has improved a bit... right now the six playoff teams are the only teams with winning records. The 1st team out of the playoffs is still the Chargers at 4-5, but they're two games out of the 6 seed.

On the flipside, the Steelers could be hurting now too with Ben out. The AFC is in pretty rough shape. The most amazing thing may be how great our odds to be the worst team are. There aren't many world beaters out there.
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Old 11-18-2012, 04:02 PM   #102
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As of now, #1 overall pick odds:

Chiefs 66%
Jags 24%
Browns 6%
Field 4%
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Old 11-18-2012, 04:04 PM   #103
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As of now, Chiefs still not eliminated from division title or WC game.
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Old 11-18-2012, 04:08 PM   #104
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Both Cleveland and Jax took their games to OT but neither could pull it out. Losers.
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Old 11-18-2012, 04:17 PM   #105
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Originally Posted by mr. tegu View Post
Both Cleveland and Jax took their games to OT but neither could pull it out. Losers.
I was rooting so hard for them
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