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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 11-25-2012, 02:27 PM   #121
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Old 11-25-2012, 02:28 PM   #122
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Rain Man, you are okay wishing for the Chiefs to win one game. That's it though. Choose wisely.
Oh, man. What a gift. I'm going to think about this and really ponder which game I want us to win.

Broncos. I want us to beat the Broncos.
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Old 11-25-2012, 02:28 PM   #123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
why don't you update the opening post?
Done.
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Old 11-25-2012, 02:30 PM   #124
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This is soooooo ****ing awesome.
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Old 11-25-2012, 02:31 PM   #125
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time.
Just to confirm, you mean one more game, right?
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Old 11-25-2012, 02:34 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by Rain Man View Post
Just to confirm, you mean one more game, right?
Yes.
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Old 11-25-2012, 02:57 PM   #127
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:00 PM   #128
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Whoops. I had overlooked Carolina who is now maybe the greatest threat to stealing the #1 pick from us. Thanks to SNR for pointing out the threat in another thread. If we beat Carolina and both teams lose all of their remaining games, we win the tiebreaker only 75% of the time.

So Rain Man, you cannot root for the Chiefs next week, unless Carolina beats Phily.
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:10 PM   #129
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We won't beat Carolina. Their running game will own a very defeated Chiefs team that will quit if they haven't already.

Cleveland is the only game I worry about.
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:11 PM   #130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
We won't beat Carolina. Their running game will own a very defeated Chiefs team that will quit if they haven't already.

Cleveland is the only game I worry about.
Yep plus Cam will run all over this defense
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:14 PM   #131
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Yep plus Cam will run all over this defense
We know that's not true.
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:21 PM   #132
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:26 PM   #133
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Carolina could win on Monday night.
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:32 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Whoops. I had overlooked Carolina who is now maybe the greatest threat to stealing the #1 pick from us. Thanks to SNR for pointing out the threat in another thread. If we beat Carolina and both teams lose all of their remaining games, we win the tiebreaker only 75% of the time.

So Rain Man, you cannot root for the Chiefs next week, unless Carolina beats Phily.
Okay, I'm going to root for Carolina against Philly, and if they lose then I'll just watch next week's Chiefs games with the dull glazed eyes of someone who has lived through great trauma.
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Old 11-25-2012, 03:37 PM   #135
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man View Post
Okay, I'm going to root for Carolina against Philly, and if they lose then I'll just watch next week's Chiefs games with the dull glazed eyes of someone who has lived through great trauma.
Sorry to rain on your parade.
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