Dick Morris believes that at this point, Romney has the advantage

[SNR]

http://www.dickmorris.com/romney-pulls-ahead/

Romney Pulls Ahead
By Dick Morris on September 25, 2012

The published polling in this year’s presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama’s massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people, and single women vie with Romney’s margin among the elderly, married white women, and white men. Tell me your demographic and I’ll tell you who you’re voting for and I’ll be right at least two times out of three!

Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. He’ll still carry them by heavy margins, but the turnout will likely lag behind the 2008 stats. (The 2008 turnout was totally unlike that in other years with all-time historic high turnouts among Obama’s main demographic groups).

Specifically, most pollsters are using 2008 party preferences to weight their 2012 survey samples, reflecting a much larger Democratic preference than is now really the case.

In my own polling, I found a lurch to the Democrats right after their convention, but subsequent research indicates that it has since petered out. Indeed, when one compares party identification in the August and September polls of this year in swing states, the Democratic Party identification is flat while the ranks of Republicans rose by an average of two points per state.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.

So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).

• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)

• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)

If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)

• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll

• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.
It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:

• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.

• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher

• The GOP field organization is better.

That’s the real state of play today.

[SNR]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Most of my family thinks Dick Morris is a bipartisan visionary.

I'm surprised black people care about Dick Morris

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by SNR

I'm surprised black people care about Dick Morris

I'm surprised anyone cares about Dick Morris

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Common sense. Its easy to get election day right, people who are playing fair know whats going to happen, and people who have stupidly skewed polls can change their likely voter screen to show a "collapse" or "shocking comeback" to save their own asses. Huge swings used to happen, but not any more. Undecided voters are now very, very few so you can't point to Reagan or his predecessors.

The best way to judge a poll is 4-5 weeks out, since debates don't change much any more and there's usually no huge shocking event that swings votes. By that measure, Rasmussen sucked ass in 2010, and he and Dick Morris will again be stupidly far off in 2012.

This is fiction. There is plenty of movement in the final weeks. If there weren't, political pros wouldn't spend gazillions on ads in the final weeks.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by SNR

I'm surprised black people care about Dick Morris

I guess you think you're making some kind of clever joke here

[SNR]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

I guess you think you're making some kind of clever joke here

No, I really am surprised.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake

Speaking of Dick Morris, has he ever correctly predicted an election? You could have a pretty good career as a pundit just by taking whatever he picks and predicting the opposite.

He's so bad foreign papers note how horrible he is at it and makes up a top 10 list about it...


http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...litical-pundit

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by SNR

No, I really am surprised.

Are you saying that for my family is black, or are you saying something else? If so, why do you think I'm black?

[whoman69]

Conservatives needed their own news to skew fact to their own viewpoint. Now they need polls to do the same? There is no scientific method, just a doctoring of the numbers to have them say what he wants.

Here is a scientific response to the unskewed insanity:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...partisan-bias/

[SNR]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Are you saying that for my family is black, or are you saying something else? If so, why do you think I'm black?

I thought you were black? Didn't you say so awhile ago?

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Are you saying that for my family is black, or are you saying something else? If so, why do you think I'm black?

Maybe it's the Afro and the do-rag in your avatar.

[RNR]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Are you saying that for my family is black, or are you saying something else? If so, why do you think I'm black?

Why would you care if he thinks you are black? Unless you are a racist~

[suzzer99]

I don't I just thought it was weird. Fwiw I'm a ginger.

[ChiTown]

Originally Posted by billay

Dick Morris said a few days before last presidential election that McCain was winning.

Yep. He is a fkn boob.

[Swanman]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

I don't I just thought it was weird. Fwiw I'm a ginger.

A black ginger? Weird.