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Old 08-24-2005, 02:01 PM  
Bootlegged Bootlegged is offline
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Ooops; No housing bubble

I guess if you keep predicting something year after year, it may eventually come true. Keep your fingers crossed, AP!


Posted on Wed, Aug. 24, 2005

New-home sales reach record high in July

JEANNINE AVERSA

Associated Press


WASHINGTON - Sales of new homes shot up to a record high in July, while U.S. factories saw orders for costly manufactured goods drop by the largest amount in 18 months.

The mixed-message reports released Wednesday by the Commerce Department dramatized the vibrancy of the housing market and also the occasionally erratic pace of recovery from the 2001 recession in manufacturing.

Taken together, though, the reports still pointed to an economy that is moving ahead at a decent clip.

New-home sales in July soared to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.41 million units. That represented a 6.5 percent increase from June's pace of 1.32 million units, which had been the previous record.

In the department's second report, new bookings to U.S. factories for "durable" goods - big-ticket items expected to last at least three years - declined by 4.9 percent in July from the previous month.

It marked the biggest drop since January 2004, when durable-goods orders fell by 5.7 percent.

Some economists thought part of July's decline might reflect businesses turning a bit cautious in their buying given a toll of high energy prices that can increase their costs and squeeze their bottom lines.

The drop in orders "suggests that escalating oil prices ... might be creating skittishness on the part of business decision makers," said Clifford Waldman, economist at the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, a research group. On the other hand, he said, July's decline comes after nice increases in the prior three months.

In financial markets, stocks rose. The Dow Jones industrials gained 12 points and the Nasdaq was up 11 points in morning trading.

On the housing front, the performance in July surprised economists who were predicting that sales of new homes would fall in July.

By region, sales rose in the West and Northeast, but fell in the Midwest and South.

The median price of a new-home in July was $203,800, down from $212,400 a year ago. The median price is where half sell for more and half sell for less.

Existing-home sales dipped in July but still were at the third-highest level on record, a report released Tuesday showed.

While the booming housing market has been a consistent star performer for the economy in recent years, the manufacturing sector has sometimes had a bumpy ride.

The last time durable-goods orders fell was in March. Since then, manufacturers have been seeing bookings go up. In June, orders went up by 1.9 percent.

Manufacturers were hardest hit by the recession and they struggled mightily to get back to good health. Analysts believe the factory sector has shown much improvement and is in good shape, although manufacturing employment is still weak and there can be ups and downs in bookings from month to month.

The weakness seen in July hit a broad range of categories, including machinery, computers, communications equipment, electrical equipment and appliances, and airplanes. That more than offset stronger demand for automobiles and parts, and primary metals, a category that includes steel.

The decline in July was steeper than analysts were predicting. Before the release of the report, economists were forecasting a drop in durable-goods orders of around 1.2 percent.

Excluding orders for transportation equipment, which can swing widely from month to month, all other durable-goods orders fell by 3.2 percent in July. That compared with a 3.6 percent increase in June.

Shipments, a good barometer of current demand, dipped by 0.1 percent in July, after growing by 0.3 percent in June.

Businesses have had to cope with surging energy bills. Oil prices climbed to an all-time closing high of $67.10 a barrel on Aug. 12.

Wanting to make sure high energy prices don't spark a broader outbreak of inflation, the Federal Reserve earlier this month boosted short-term interest rates for a 10th time since June 2004. Another rate increase is expected at the Fed's next meeting, Sept. 20.
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Old 08-24-2005, 02:05 PM   #2
oldandslow oldandslow is offline
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It will be over before the year is out.

You can take that to the bank. In fact I have. Just sold a rental home and would, under no circumstances, buy another now.
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Old 08-24-2005, 02:06 PM   #3
Taco John Taco John is offline
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I never understand why people blame the media for reporting on things that folks are interested in.
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Old 08-24-2005, 02:09 PM   #4
Taco John Taco John is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldandslow
It will be over before the year is out.

You can take that to the bank. In fact I have. Just sold a rental home and would, under no circumstances, buy another now.


I pretty much agree... I was hoping to get into the market earlier on a rental, but I'm going to wait for prices to go down. They're outrageous right now. Luckily, there is a lot of commercial and public growth in my area, so I'm not too worried about my current house value.
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Old 08-24-2005, 02:09 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco John
I never understand why people blame the media for reporting on things that folks are interested in.
I remember when Lattimer pulled out one small article that said something a bit critical of the pope at the time the new pope was named...he went on and on about media this and media that.

I then got about 7 or 8 screenshots of the biggest online media outlets...everyone one of their front pages said nothing but great things about the pope...his answer to this wasn...

"So....whats your point?"

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Old 08-24-2005, 02:09 PM   #6
Brock Brock is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldandslow
It will be over before the year is out.

You can take that to the bank. In fact I have. Just sold a rental home and would, under no circumstances, buy another now.
You're crazy. I can't keep up with demand right now, and there is no end in sight.
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Old 08-24-2005, 02:14 PM   #7
oldandslow oldandslow is offline
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Brock,

You do not need to call me crazy.

Indeed, I would argue that you are the one who needs to be wary.

Oil + increased interest rates are soon going to have an impact.

Come back to me in 6 to nine months and call me crazy.

I suspect you will be singing a different tune.
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Old 08-24-2005, 02:16 PM   #8
Brock Brock is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldandslow
Brock,

You do not need to call me crazy.

Indeed, I would argue that you are the one who needs to be wary.

Oil + increased interest rates are soon going to have an impact.

Come back to me in 6 to nine months and call me crazy.

I suspect you will be singing a different tune.
Dude, I'm contracted for the next 3 YEARS. So yeah, I'll come back to you in 6 to 9 months, and I'll be saying the same thing I'm saying now: You panicked and made a mistake.
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Old 08-24-2005, 02:21 PM   #9
oldandslow oldandslow is offline
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Good for you. I hope those contracts hold.

In the mean time the housing bubble is going to burst.

I in no way panicked.

I made what I feel is a prudent business decision.

I hope you do the same.
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Old 08-24-2005, 02:25 PM   #10
Brock Brock is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldandslow
Good for you. I hope those contracts hold.

In the mean time the housing bubble is going to burst.

I in no way panicked.

I made what I feel is a prudent business decision.

I hope you do the same.
Do what you have to for your own peace of mind. As for me, somebody has to stay around and pick up the money you left on the table. I'm beginning to understand all those "buy gold" commercials I'm hearing on the radio.
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Old 08-24-2005, 02:28 PM   #11
oldandslow oldandslow is offline
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Stay bullish my friend.

As for me, I see a bear in the woods.

67 dollar oil and the fed just keeps feeding my bear.
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Old 08-24-2005, 02:36 PM   #12
vailpass vailpass is offline
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Here in Phoenix every knucklehead and his brother is a realtor right now. 2 years ago they were all in the "service" industries but jumped on the wagon since pretty much anyone with a pulse can sell a house in this town.
At a state meeting last week a speaker cautioned that within the next 9 months we need to be on the lookour for a glut of unskilled labor (non-college, non-trade) in the market as many hundreds of "realtors" will be back on the job market. They included car salesman in that forecast as well; tying home and car sales into the same trend.
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Old 08-24-2005, 02:45 PM   #13
Bootlegged Bootlegged is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZachKC
I remember when Lattimer pulled out one small article that said something a bit critical of the pope at the time the new pope was named...he went on and on about media this and media that.

I then got about 7 or 8 screenshots of the biggest online media outlets...everyone one of their front pages said nothing but great things about the pope...his answer to this wasn...

"So....whats your point?"


http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showt...&page=15&pp=15

Yep, you got me. I'm a religious nut, too!
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Old 08-24-2005, 02:48 PM   #14
StcChief StcChief is offline
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Phx, AZ seems like it has boomed too long.
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Old 08-24-2005, 02:53 PM   #15
Amnorix Amnorix is offline
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People said tech stocks were a bubble for a long, long time before it popped.

The only way we'll know if we're in a bubble NOW is to wait about 3-5 years, not 6-9 months.

There are multiple danger signs in the Boston housing market. Every amateur in the world is going into real estate. It's hard to fathom that it can be infinitely perpetuated. Of course, many of us were thinking the market was overheated 2 years ago, and so far there's been zero sign that we were right.

I literally remember speaking with a friend around 2000. He was saying how he and his wife were thinking of buying a house in 1997 or so, but things were a little overheated, so they waited. Same thing in 1998. Same thing in 1999. Finally, in 2000, after prices were MUCH higher than they had been in 1997, they decided they couldn't wait any longer and bought a house.

And here we are, FIVE YEARS after that, and still it continues.

So who knows. Until it pops, it's not a bubble.
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