Debate Bounce

[Great Expectations]

For those of you who closely follow the polls what kind of bounce did Romney get from the debate? What does that do to his chances of winning the general election?

[King_Chief_Fan]

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

For those of you who closely follow the polls what kind of bounce did Romney get from the debate? What does that do to his chances of winning the general election?

too early say I guess...haven't seen bounce data yet.

It is way to early to declare win after one round

[Chocolate Hog]

None according the Gallup tracking poll as of yesterday

[thecoffeeguy]

Read an article today that Romney got a boost in Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Either leading or tied with Obama. I'll find the article and link it.

Ya, he did get a bounce after trouncing Obama Wednesday night.

[alpha_omega]

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

For those of you who closely follow the polls what kind of bounce did Romney get from the debate? What does that do to his chances of winning the general election?

The data will be out next week Pip.

[alnorth]

This is far, far, far too early to say. This weekend's numbers may also be too early, you need to wait till Monday or Tuesday.

Based on history though, Romney's probably not going to get much of a bounce. Even if you factor in that Romney got one of the clearest "won the debate" flash polls in a while, there is a very weak correlation between perception of who won the debate, and actual change in the poll results.

We've had many elections where the candidate perceived to have lost a debate actually improved in the polls the following week.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by thecoffeeguy

Read an article today that Romney got a boost in Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Either leading or tied with Obama. I'll find the article and link it.

Ya, he did get a bounce after trouncing Obama Wednesday night.

No one has a post-debate poll, and "We Ask America" + Rasmussen aren't very credible polling companies.

[thecoffeeguy]

Originally Posted by alnorth

No one has a post-debate poll, and "We Ask America" + Rasmussen aren't very credible polling companies.

Says who? you?

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by thecoffeeguy

Says who? you?

We Ask America is a joke. They are brand-new in 2012 so no history, they have a pro-GOP house effect that exceeds even Rasmussen, and their performance in predicting the Scott Walker recall election was pathetic.

Rasmussen used to be good, but they were utterly pathetic in 2010, primarily because they don't poll cell phones and many more people have cut their land line cord today than 4 years ago. Cell phone-only users tend to skew Democrat. Rasmussen is, and will continue to be, a pathetic joke until they start calling cell phones.

This isn't uninformed opinion, the fact that these two pollsters suck is based on data.

[Great Expectations]

Originally Posted by alpha_omega

The data will be out next week Pip.

Thank you Miss Havisham

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by Bo's Pelini

None according the Gallup tracking poll as of yesterday

Won't show up on Gallup for a week. Might show up on Rasmussen this weekend.

The state polling seems to be up though...Romney's now up in Florida, Virginia, and one point behind in Ohio. If that is shown to be the case by more than the two firms I've seen today then it is a major change...

[mnchiefsguy]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

Won't show up on Gallup for a week. Might show up on Rasmussen this weekend.

The state polling seems to be up though...Romney's now up in Florida, Virginia, and one point behind in Ohio. If that is shown to be the case by more than the two firms I've seen today then it is a major change...

Which two polls have seen that reflect that? I would be interested in seeing those numbers. Thanks!

[whoman69]

We probably won't know until Tuesday. If its a bump of more than 2 points then it may be a trend instead of a bump.

[KCTitus]

Originally Posted by alnorth

No one has a post-debate poll, and "We Ask America" + Rasmussen aren't very credible polling companies.

Rasmussen was #1 most accurate subsequent to the 2008 election...I'd say that lends some credibility.

[chiefqueen]

Whatever bounce there is will be back to where it was on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week based on today's unemployment report.

The debate outcome may keep in Romney on Ohio TV 7 to 10 days longer (before the debate there were threads on Free Republic that Romney was probably going to "pull out" of Ohio towards the end of next week. If/When Romney pulls out of Ohio this election is OVER) but, based on today's jobless report I anticipate Obama regaining his pre-debate lead about the time of the second debate.