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#2 | |
Praise Him
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: none ya
Casino cash: $15586
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Quote:
It is way to early to declare win after one round |
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#3 |
Inmem 2.0
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: My house
Casino cash: $34658
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None according the Gallup tracking poll as of yesterday
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#4 |
That Rascally wabbit!
Join Date: Aug 2009
Casino cash: $11664
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Read an article today that Romney got a boost in Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Either leading or tied with Obama. I'll find the article and link it.
Ya, he did get a bounce after trouncing Obama Wednesday night. |
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#5 |
Supporter
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Liberty
Casino cash: $21451
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#6 |
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Iowania
Casino cash: $47396339
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This is far, far, far too early to say. This weekend's numbers may also be too early, you need to wait till Monday or Tuesday.
Based on history though, Romney's probably not going to get much of a bounce. Even if you factor in that Romney got one of the clearest "won the debate" flash polls in a while, there is a very weak correlation between perception of who won the debate, and actual change in the poll results. We've had many elections where the candidate perceived to have lost a debate actually improved in the polls the following week.
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#7 |
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Iowania
Casino cash: $47396339
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No one has a post-debate poll, and "We Ask America" + Rasmussen aren't very credible polling companies.
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#8 |
That Rascally wabbit!
Join Date: Aug 2009
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#9 |
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Iowania
Casino cash: $47396339
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We Ask America is a joke. They are brand-new in 2012 so no history, they have a pro-GOP house effect that exceeds even Rasmussen, and their performance in predicting the Scott Walker recall election was pathetic.
Rasmussen used to be good, but they were utterly pathetic in 2010, primarily because they don't poll cell phones and many more people have cut their land line cord today than 4 years ago. Cell phone-only users tend to skew Democrat. Rasmussen is, and will continue to be, a pathetic joke until they start calling cell phones. This isn't uninformed opinion, the fact that these two pollsters suck is based on data.
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#10 |
MVP
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Joplin, MO
Casino cash: $10022438
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#11 |
RING****ER
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Confusion, USA
Casino cash: $21168
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Won't show up on Gallup for a week. Might show up on Rasmussen this weekend.
The state polling seems to be up though...Romney's now up in Florida, Virginia, and one point behind in Ohio. If that is shown to be the case by more than the two firms I've seen today then it is a major change... |
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#12 | |
MVP
Join Date: Dec 2003
Casino cash: $16306
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Quote:
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#13 | |
The Master
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $5025
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We probably won't know until Tuesday. If its a bump of more than 2 points then it may be a trend instead of a bump.
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#14 |
Archivist
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: The Ethernet
Casino cash: $16832
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Rasmussen was #1 most accurate subsequent to the 2008 election...I'd say that lends some credibility.
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Anything you post on this BB can and will be used against you... |
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#15 |
On my throne
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Kansas City, MO
Casino cash: $12160
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Whatever bounce there is will be back to where it was on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week based on today's unemployment report.
The debate outcome may keep in Romney on Ohio TV 7 to 10 days longer (before the debate there were threads on Free Republic that Romney was probably going to "pull out" of Ohio towards the end of next week. If/When Romney pulls out of Ohio this election is OVER) but, based on today's jobless report I anticipate Obama regaining his pre-debate lead about the time of the second debate. |
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