Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Ed & Dave Lounge > D.C.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-16-2012, 10:37 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
Black for Palestine
 
Direckshun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Springpatch
Casino cash: $6987
Why this election matters, politically.

I've already pretty much speculated this off the top of my head, but I've just now read a couple things suggesting my speculations may have some more weight behind them than I initially thought.

Two institutions, Moodys and Macroeconomic Advisors, predict at least 12 million jobs will be created over the next four yearsby 2016 no matter who is President.

That is ****ing outstanding, and right in line with what I've been reading about the jobless rate falling like a rock around 2014 (c'mon mylonsd, let's do a public bet!).

This is largely going to vindicate whomever is in office. If it's Obama, then you have Obama and Clinton having created 17+ million jobs each (Obama's would be 17 million, Clinton's 23 million), and the Bush presidency having tanked the economy -- creating a 21st century impression (not altogether fair, but strong nonetheless) that one party has the monopoly on acute economic policy.

If Romney wins, the new narrative will likely become that Republicans were long vindicated in their hatred of Obama's economic policy, and the nation may shift that way.

Either way, it'd sure be nice to see the 12 million jobs roll in. But it's going to have profound political consequences for whomever is in the White House.

Crazy stuff.

http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-mone...se-in-november

Experts say economy should grow despite who wins White House in Nov.
By Vicki Needham
09/02/12 06:00 AM ET

The economy could churn out 12 million jobs in the next four years regardless of who wins the White House in November, economists said.

It’s a prediction in line with a promise made by the GOP presidential ticket.

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and his running mate Paul Ryan each pledged in their speeches during the GOP convention that they would create 12 million jobs over the next four years with a series of familiar policies that include reducing regulatory and tax burdens on small businesses and ramping up international trade.

Despite the slowly healing job market, Romney and Ryan have ignored the danger of going out at least part of the way on a political limb, with forecasts of a much faster pace of job growth on their side.

"Most forecasts for employment growth are very close to 12 million over the next four years regardless of who wins the presidency," Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Analytics, told The Hill.

Creating that many jobs in the next four years "is very doable," he said.

President Obama has learned the hard way in making promises on jobs, after ensuring that an $800 billion economic stimulus package in 2009 would "save or create" 2.5 million jobs and drop the unemployment rate down to about 6 percent by now. Since then, the White House has shied away from making specific job creation predictions.

Meanwhile, the Romney campaign, as well as congressional Republicans, have seized on the White House's failure to lower the jobless rate, making it central to their argument as to why Obama's policies have hampered a stronger recovery and why he should be denied a second term.

Obama will likely argue next week at the Democratic National Convention that electing Romney would return the country to the same Republican policies that mired the nation in a deep economic hole.

Republicans argue that not only did the Obama administration miss the mark on the jobless rate, which has remained stuck above 8 percent for the bulk of his presidency, but he has also failed to make headway on creating enough jobs to make up for those lost during the recession.

"And unlike the president, I have a plan to create 12 million new jobs," Romney said Thursday night in a speech where he accepted the GOP nomination.

Romney outlined five steps including, energy independence by 2020; updating workers skills and giving parents school choice; forging new trade agreements and leveling "unmistakable consequences" for violating trade rules; helping small businesses by reducing taxes and regulations; and cutting the deficit and balancing the budget by repealing Obama's signature healthcare law.

When it comes to the Romney-Ryan vow, Keith Hall of George Mason University’s Mercatus Center and the former head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces monthly job and other data, said while there is some "ambition" in creating that many jobs over four years, it is certainly possible if the economy starts "clicking on all cylinders."

To get there, the economy would need to create, on average, 250,000 jobs a month beginning in 2013 and the nation could get back to near full employment, around 6 percent, and nearly a full recovery by mid-2016, Zandi and Hall said.

President Clinton's first term was the only time a recovery has generated more than 12 million jobs. Nearly 23 million jobs, averaging 237,000 jobs a month, were created during his eight years in office.

At this point, Obama is still 316,000 jobs in the hole, despite job growth every month since October 2010, Hall said.

The economy needs to create upward of 190,000 jobs a month just to cover population growth and, so far, the Obama economy is only generating about 127,000, Hall said.

By contrast, President George W. Bush left office with only 1.1 million net jobs created during his two terms, an anemic 11,000 a month, according to Hall.

Still, not everyone is sold on the possibility of it happening regardless if Obama wins reelection or whether Romney sweeps into office.

Judy Conti, federal advocacy coordinator with the National Employment Law Project, called it an "unrealistic promise," especially with the looming threat of federal budget cuts, the lack of cooperation in Congress to agree on policies that could help boost the labor market and continued fiscal struggles at the state and local level that are a drag on job creation and the economy as a whole.

National unemployment would be 7 percent if state and local governments had not shed so many workers.

"Anyone who thinks the next Congress will do more regardless of the balance of power is very naive," she said.

"I'd love to see it but I don't think it's going to happen," Conti said.

From Zandi's perspective, the potential is in place because the economy is on track to create 2 million jobs this year. As long as the recovery maintains at its current pace, 8 million jobs would be created over the next four years.

A good batch of those jobs should come from more home building and commercial construction, which are still at incredibly low levels of activity, and "will increase substantially," he said.

"Even under very conservative assumptions" 4 million jobs could be created over the next four years in construction and construction-related industries like manufacturing, transportation, distribution and financial services.

"The economy’s fundamentals have improved significantly since the recession, and this will shine through in the next several years," Zandi said.

The Labor Department has projected that employers will create 20.5 million jobs from 2010 to 2020 with the healthcare sector expected to grow the most rapidly, while construction jobs could struggle to recover positions lost during the recession.

In a CNN interview in early August, Romney said the creation of 250,000 jobs a month is "what happens in a normal process."

"We should be seeing two, three, 400,000 jobs per month to gain much of what’s been lost, that’s what normally happens after a recession," he said.

But Hall said the recovery has been anything but normal and the rebound over the past three years has, in terms of economic growth, amounted to the worst economic recovery on record.

Still, Hall says it has been a "humbling time" for economic policy with the recession testing the limitations of what the government or Federal Reserve can do to spur more robust growth.

"I don't know what more the Federal Reserve or government could have done," he said.

Last edited by Direckshun; 10-16-2012 at 11:20 AM..
Posts: 44,190
Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 10:38 AM   #2
HonestChieffan HonestChieffan is online now
Country Santa Year Around
 
HonestChieffan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: In the Country in MO
Casino cash: $6875
Anyone who cannot see this election matters is in a coma
__________________
Frazod to KC Nitwit..."Hey, I saw a picture of some dumpy bitch with a horrible ****tarded giant back tattoo and couldn't help but think of you." Simple, Pure, Perfect. 7/31/2013

Dave Lane: "I have donated more money to people in my life as an atheist that most churches ever will."

Come home to Jesus Dave. Come home.
Posts: 28,536
HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 11:29 AM   #3
Mr. Kotter Mr. Kotter is offline
Lookin' for the answers...
 
Mr. Kotter's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Somewhere else
Casino cash: $639
Quote:
Originally Posted by HonestChieffan View Post
Anyone who cannot see this election matters is in a coma
Anyone who actually, sincerely, believes that which of these clowns actually wins the election will really make a big difference on where the economy is headed...are the real bafoons--and most won't be able to blame their ignorance on a coma either. Sheeples and ideologues on both sides.
__________________
Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel, Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel, Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel, Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel...
Posts: 40,002
Mr. Kotter has disabled reputation
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 11:35 AM   #4
HonestChieffan HonestChieffan is online now
Country Santa Year Around
 
HonestChieffan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: In the Country in MO
Casino cash: $6875
You think the economy is the high risk issue? Nitwit
__________________
Frazod to KC Nitwit..."Hey, I saw a picture of some dumpy bitch with a horrible ****tarded giant back tattoo and couldn't help but think of you." Simple, Pure, Perfect. 7/31/2013

Dave Lane: "I have donated more money to people in my life as an atheist that most churches ever will."

Come home to Jesus Dave. Come home.
Posts: 28,536
HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 11:40 AM   #5
Amnorix Amnorix is offline
In BB I trust
 
Amnorix's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2003
Location: Boston, Mass.
Casino cash: $6010
Just as it was obvious that whoever was President from 2009-12 would oversee a very, very shaky economy, I think it's obvious that whoever is President from 13-16 will oversee what should be a pretty strong recovery ASSUMING that the economy doesn't get thrown into turmoil by any extraneous factors, which could range from a collapse in Europe to oil supplies being interrupted by turmoil in the Middle East to a dirty bomb going off on Wall Street.
__________________
"I love signature blocks on the Internet. I get to put whatever the hell I want in quotes, pick a pretend author, and bang, it's like he really said it." George Washington
Posts: 33,140
Amnorix has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Amnorix has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Amnorix has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Amnorix has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Amnorix has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Amnorix has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Amnorix has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Amnorix has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Amnorix has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Amnorix has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Amnorix has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 11:41 AM   #6
Brainiac Brainiac is offline
Veteran
 
Brainiac's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Lenexa, KS
Casino cash: $5945
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter View Post
Anyone who actually, sincerely, believes that which of these clowns actually wins the election will really make a big difference on where the economy is headed...are the real bafoons--and most won't be able to blame their ignorance on a coma either. Sheeples and ideologues on both sides.
There are some words that you really shouldn't use if you don't how to spell them, because the irony makes you look like a buffoon.
Posts: 4,284
Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Brainiac is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 11:44 AM   #7
Mr. Kotter Mr. Kotter is offline
Lookin' for the answers...
 
Mr. Kotter's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Somewhere else
Casino cash: $639
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brainiac View Post
There are some words that you really shouldn't use if you don't how to spell them, because the irony makes you look like a buffoon.
Who's the bafoon, now, buffoon?

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=bafoon

http://www.unwords.com/unword/bafoon.html
__________________
Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel, Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel, Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel, Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel...
Posts: 40,002
Mr. Kotter has disabled reputation
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 01:24 PM   #8
jjjayb jjjayb is offline
Veteran
 
jjjayb's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Back in K.C. baby!!!!
Casino cash: $5648
Of course the jobless rate will fall around 2014. Because we'll have a president in office who isn't anti-business.
Posts: 4,891
jjjayb would the whole thing.jjjayb would the whole thing.jjjayb would the whole thing.jjjayb would the whole thing.jjjayb would the whole thing.jjjayb would the whole thing.jjjayb would the whole thing.jjjayb would the whole thing.jjjayb would the whole thing.jjjayb would the whole thing.jjjayb would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 01:37 PM   #9
vailpass vailpass is offline
Yah Mules!
 
vailpass's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2001
Casino cash: $6350
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Just as it was obvious that whoever was President from 2009-12 would oversee a very, very shaky economy, I think it's obvious that whoever is President from 13-16 will oversee what should be a pretty strong recovery ASSUMING that the economy doesn't get thrown into turmoil by any extraneous factors, which could range from a collapse in Europe to oil supplies being interrupted by turmoil in the Middle East to a dirty bomb going off on Wall Street.
Sounds like you are hedging against a Romney win.
obama does not equal Romney in the sense that a recovery is going to happen exactly the same no matter who is elected. 4 more y ears of obama=4 more years of low investor confidence, congressional gridlock, and stagnant GDP.
__________________
It don't matter what line we hand you
When we come a crawlin' in.
We ain't wrong, we ain't sorry,
An' it's probably gonna happen again.

T. Byrd
Posts: 36,737
vailpass is obviously part of the inner Circle.vailpass is obviously part of the inner Circle.vailpass is obviously part of the inner Circle.vailpass is obviously part of the inner Circle.vailpass is obviously part of the inner Circle.vailpass is obviously part of the inner Circle.vailpass is obviously part of the inner Circle.vailpass is obviously part of the inner Circle.vailpass is obviously part of the inner Circle.vailpass is obviously part of the inner Circle.vailpass is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 05:14 PM   #10
BigRedChief BigRedChief is online now
Brainwashed
 
BigRedChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Swims with fishes
Casino cash: $7085
VARSITY
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter View Post
Anyone who actually, sincerely, believes that which of these clowns actually wins the election will really make a big difference on where the economy is headed...are the real bafoons--and most won't be able to blame their ignorance on a coma either. Sheeples and ideologues on both sides.
The biggest long term difference may be the SCOTUS. We may have 2-3 justices leave.
__________________
Attempted troll/humor while discussing potential child abuse
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bufkin View Post
If it's effective, who are you, me, or anybody else to call it abuse? I worked with a guy back in Moberly who would shove a finger up his son's ass each time he had anything worse than a C on his report card. If he came home with 2 D's and an F, that's 3 fingers (and this was a big dude). Does that sound hideous and disgusting? Absolutely. Did the kid ever get anything worse than a C after this rule was implemented? Not a chance.

I'm not saying it's morally right or wrong, but does it make the child because of it? Think about that for a second.
Posts: 43,086
BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2012, 06:05 PM   #11
petegz28 petegz28 is online now
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $6920
I think the major factor of the POTUS in the next term is the SCOTUS. Other than that I think it comes down more to congress than President.
__________________
"Finally, anyone who uses the terms, irregardless, a whole nother, or all of a sudden shall be sentenced to a work camp."

Stewie Griffin
Posts: 65,818
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:46 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.