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Old 10-18-2012, 07:41 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The Math

Noodling around with this tool today: http://www.270towin.com/

Disagree with this where you might, but here's what I got:

===================================

Safe Obama (>75% certain): HI, WA, OR, CA, NM, IL, MD, DC, DE, NJ, NY, VT, CT, RI, MA, ME

Total: 191

Likely Obama (60%-75% certain): MN (10), MI (16), WI (10), PA (20), NH (4)

Total: 60

Swing states (<60% certain either way): NV (6), CO (9), IA (6), VA (13), OH (18)

Total: 52

Likely Romney (60%-75% certain): NC (15), FL (29)

Total: 44

Safe Romney (>75% certain): AK, MT, ID, UT, WY, AZ, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, TN, KY, IN, WV

Total: 191

===================================

Putting all "Likely Obama"s in Obama's column, you get 251, 19 shy of 270.

Putting all "Likely Romney"s in Romney's column, you get 235, 35 shy of 270.

Shortest route for Obama to victory: Ohio, and any other swing state.

Shortest route for Romney to victory: Ohio, Virginia, and any other swing state.

Both of the Likely Romney's are pretty high in value. Should Romney lose either one of them, he might be pretty close to cooked.

If he loses North Carolina to Obama, that puts Obama at 266, which means Romney will need to, at the very least, (a.) hold Florida, (b.) win every single swing state.

If he loses Florida to Obama instead, that puts Obama at 280, which means Romney will need to, at the very least, (a.) hold North Carolina, (b.) win every single swing state, (c.) win at least one, possibly two Likely Obamas (since winning New Hampshire would not be enough on its own).

North Carolina and Florida are pretty much must-wins for Romney. Losing NC creates one hell of an electoral burden for him. And losing Florida is basically losing the election for him.
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Old 10-18-2012, 08:00 AM   #2
BucEyedPea BucEyedPea is offline
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I wouldn't say Florida is "likely" Romney—not yet anyway.
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Old 10-18-2012, 10:14 AM   #3
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We are going to end up with a tie, we get Romney as POTUS and Joe Biden as VPOTUS.

As much as our political system is a cluster ****, we might as well have a POTUS & VPOTUS as cluster**** winner for each party.
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Old 10-18-2012, 11:38 AM   #4
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I would not put NH or WI in the likely Obama column. RCP has Obama up in NH by less than a percentage point (0.8), and WI is well within the margin of error, with Obama up 2.0. Seems to be more fitting the swing state column.

For some reason RCP moved NJ from likely Obama to leans Obama. Not sure why, as Obama is ahead by almost nine points. Not sure what the lead has been, but there is no reason to think that NJ would be in danger of not going for Obama.

RCP also has Romney ahead in the electoral college for the first time 206-201. Link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

The 206-201 is fairly meaningless, as RCP has a large number of states in the toss-up column, but I suppose one could surmise that it is a reflection of Romney's recent surge.
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Old 10-18-2012, 11:51 AM   #5
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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I'm basing my categorizations on fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver's site.

His are as reliable as anybody's out there, he takes polls of polls.
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Old 10-18-2012, 12:04 PM   #6
mnchiefsguy mnchiefsguy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
I'm basing my categorizations on fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver's site.

His are as reliable as anybody's out there, he takes polls of polls.
Well, you should probably move MN and MI to the safe column for Obama. Silver puts the odds of Obama winning both of those states at more then 95%. I would agree with him on MN. MI I would put in the probably column, as the average polls seem to be at about Obama +4.

Edit: Silver has PA at 91.1% for Obama...so you line up is not quite matching Silver's.
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Old 10-18-2012, 12:17 PM   #7
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The path for Romney is pretty simple:

Win FL, NC, VA (he's moving into the safe zone in FL/NC, not there yet in VA)
and
Win OH + 1 More State (any will do) (No evidence yet he's done anything but tighten it)
or
Win WI or CO + 1 More State (any will do) (possible, but tough at this moment)
or
Win IA, CO, and NV (IA and CO are possible, NV too - but less so at the moment)

If state polls start to follow the national polls (which they typically do) you will see more of these toss-ups coming Romney's way. Sure, the electoral college vote is all that matters, but we've had three elections out of 81 that had the popular vote go one way and the electoral college go the other. Since one of those happened recently it is fresh in people's minds, but it just isn't going to happen.

We'll know soon enough!
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Old 10-18-2012, 04:51 PM   #8
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
Well, you should probably move MN and MI to the safe column for Obama. Silver puts the odds of Obama winning both of those states at more then 95%. I would agree with him on MN. MI I would put in the probably column, as the average polls seem to be at about Obama +4.

Edit: Silver has PA at 91.1% for Obama...so you line up is not quite matching Silver's.
Yeah, I actually moved those states to prevent any potential conservative protests, should this thread take off. I agree they are virtual locks for Obama.
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Old 10-18-2012, 05:05 PM   #9
mnchiefsguy mnchiefsguy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Yeah, I actually moved those states to prevent any potential conservative protests, should this thread take off. I agree they are virtual locks for Obama.
MN is a virtual lock. MI is a probable. Latest polls have Romney closing to around 4 pts in PA and 3.5 in MI. While not nearly as tight as CO or NH, they are tight enough that I would slam dunk them into anyone's column just yet.
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Old 10-18-2012, 07:53 PM   #10
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I am still having trouble believing Obama can win Nevada and Iowa.. if we assume Romney takes those two and he takes FL, NC, VA (those are looking pretty good for Romney right now) then Obama takes Ohio... Romney still would have at least 269.

I could be way off on Iowa and Nevada though.

And of course we still have 2 1/2 weeks to go... anyone's game unless the recent Gallup poll is dead on and Romney really does have a 52-45 lead... if so, this thing is over. If by this time next week Romney is over 50% in two credible polls (Gallup, Rasmussen, etc) then I would be willing to call it, barring a major screw up.
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Old 10-18-2012, 07:55 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
I am still having trouble believing Obama can win Nevada and Iowa.. if we assume Romney takes those two and he takes FL, NC, VA (those are looking pretty good for Romney right now) then Obama takes Ohio... Romney still would have at least 269.

I could be way off on Iowa and Nevada though.

And of course we still have 2 1/2 weeks to go... anyone's game unless the recent Gallup poll is dead on and Romney really does have a 52-45 lead... if so, this thing is over. If by this time next week Romney is over 50% in two credible polls (Gallup, Rasmussen, etc) then I would be willing to call it, barring a major screw up.
Romney within 2 in Iowa and the Register expert (Iowa Boy) says the momentum is his.

I still expect an October surprise though.
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Old 10-18-2012, 08:19 PM   #12
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Gallup has Romney leading outside the margin of error nationally now. Their daily tracking today gave him a percentage point more today than yesterday. This week was the first time he's crossed 50% in that poll. This isn't a sudden spike of weak support based on some opponent gaffe or fleeting news story against the incumbent. He has been slowly but surely gaining support nationally over the last three or four weeks. In all the battleground states the numbers seem to be trending the same way at about the same rate.

You can win the popular vote and lose the election, but when you cross into the range of 52% nationally, which is where he is with Gallup now, that becomes much less likely. If there are even 2% still undecided and they fall approximately even, reaching 53% would change a lot of things for Romney.

No one is going to win 53% of the vote and lose the election. Just isn't going to happen. When in 2004 Bush won re-election and it was down to Ohio, he was at 50.7%. 53% is close to what Obama had against McCain, and that election was not really in doubt in the final weeks.

We can all look at state polling, but the national trend is pretty uniform.
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Old 10-18-2012, 08:24 PM   #13
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Old 10-18-2012, 08:30 PM   #14
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Poll shows Romney leading in blue Pennsylvania

A new poll shows Republican Mitt Romney leading in Pennsylvania, a state that Republicans had all but written off just weeks ago but which is now listed as a toss up by the Real Clear Politics website.

Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.

It's the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State.

"The polling is very clear that the race is certainly up for grabs and Republicans have a tendency to never believe it," Susquehanna President James Lee told The Examiner.

Romney isn't spending much time or money in Pennsylvania, which hasn't backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

Every other Pennsylvania poll shows Obama ahead, though by a narrowing margin. A Quinnipiac University poll taken around the same time as the Susquehanna poll shows Obama leading Romney 50 percent to 46 percent.

Susquehanna's automated poll of 1,376 likely voters was taken between Oct. 11 and 13, before the second presidential debate Tuesday that many saw as a comeback for Obama since his Oct. 3 showdown with Romney.

Lee said Romney has made significant gains in the all-important suburbs of Philadelphia, a ring of counties that helped push Obama to victory in 2008.

"Republicans haven't been able to do that in 20 years," Lee said. "Romney has made some major inroads."

Lee said Romney also gained ground in western Pennsylvania, where socially conservative, blue-collar Democrats have turned their backs on Obama.

Susquehanna has traditionally shown a much tighter race between Obama and Romney than other polls, in part because it weighs its results by party registration. Firms that don't do this tend to over-sample Democrats.

Weighting results in Pennsylvania is particularly important, Lee said, "because we know with a pretty good degree of certainty how many registered Republicans and Democrats are going to show up" on Election Day.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-s...3#.UICHI-xPE1o
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Old 10-18-2012, 08:38 PM   #15
mnchiefsguy mnchiefsguy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Poll shows Romney leading in blue Pennsylvania

A new poll shows Republican Mitt Romney leading in Pennsylvania, a state that Republicans had all but written off just weeks ago but which is now listed as a toss up by the Real Clear Politics website.

Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.

It's the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State.

"The polling is very clear that the race is certainly up for grabs and Republicans have a tendency to never believe it," Susquehanna President James Lee told The Examiner.

Romney isn't spending much time or money in Pennsylvania, which hasn't backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

Every other Pennsylvania poll shows Obama ahead, though by a narrowing margin. A Quinnipiac University poll taken around the same time as the Susquehanna poll shows Obama leading Romney 50 percent to 46 percent.

Susquehanna's automated poll of 1,376 likely voters was taken between Oct. 11 and 13, before the second presidential debate Tuesday that many saw as a comeback for Obama since his Oct. 3 showdown with Romney.

Lee said Romney has made significant gains in the all-important suburbs of Philadelphia, a ring of counties that helped push Obama to victory in 2008.

"Republicans haven't been able to do that in 20 years," Lee said. "Romney has made some major inroads."

Lee said Romney also gained ground in western Pennsylvania, where socially conservative, blue-collar Democrats have turned their backs on Obama.

Susquehanna has traditionally shown a much tighter race between Obama and Romney than other polls, in part because it weighs its results by party registration. Firms that don't do this tend to over-sample Democrats.

Weighting results in Pennsylvania is particularly important, Lee said, "because we know with a pretty good degree of certainty how many registered Republicans and Democrats are going to show up" on Election Day.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-s...3#.UICHI-xPE1o
Wow. Even though you would have to consider this poll to be an outlier, if this trend were to continue, the President would be in some serious trouble.
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