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Old 10-19-2012, 02:06 PM  
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
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Friday Afternoon Prediction: Obama - 49.45%, Romney - 49.34%, Other 1.21%

That's where my program puts it now...

Romney was up yesterday ever-so-slightly, so I think we're seeing an ever-so-slight bounce Obama's way after the second debate, which is reflected in the Rasmussen and IBD polls and much, much less so in Gallup (my program is squeezing out most of the Gallup number as an outlier).

Anyway, will be back next week with another update...
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Old 10-19-2012, 02:08 PM   #2
mnchiefsguy mnchiefsguy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
That's where my program puts it now...

Romney was up yesterday ever-so-slightly, so I think we're seeing an ever-so-slight bounce Obama's way after the second debate, which is reflected in the Rasmussen and IBD polls and much, much less so in Gallup (my program is squeezing out most of the Gallup number as an outlier).

Anyway, will be back next week with another update...
Does your program just do the national popular vote, or does it address the Electoral College as well?
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Old 10-19-2012, 02:19 PM   #3
mikey23545 mikey23545 is offline
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I'm not sure about that percentage...My program says it's 49.5379235285% for Romney, 49.4620764715% for Obama, and 1% for retarded political geeks.
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Old 10-19-2012, 02:28 PM   #4
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
Does your program just do the national popular vote, or does it address the Electoral College as well?
I'm setting it up to do the states that matter but I still have to get historical accuracy on a couple of polls set.

A close ball-park on OH, for instance, shows Obama leading 49.92% over Romney's 48.98%, so Romney still has a ways to go to get over the electoral hump. That number looks very tight, but when an incumbant is that close to 50% it's almost like be 10 points back the way things get weighted. So Romney needs to really see a shift in that state.
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Old 10-19-2012, 05:59 PM   #5
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Rasmussen has said there is no debate bounce for Obama. The numbers bringing him up are from before the debate. The post debate numbers have Romney picking up numbers. You will see a Romney bump when tomorrows number come out.
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Old 10-20-2012, 02:20 AM   #6
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Popular vote doesn't matter, he's still losing in the electoral college
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Old 10-20-2012, 07:59 AM   #7
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Oh my, I would absolutely hate that result.

He wouldn't have a majority-mandate, and you know the right would basically be digging up any half-assed theories they could conceive for voter fraud.

It would just be a cluster****.
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Old 10-20-2012, 01:22 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Oh my, I would absolutely hate that result.

He wouldn't have a majority-mandate, and you know the right would basically be digging up any half-assed theories they could conceive for voter fraud.

It would just be a cluster****.
It is with Obama in office now, but why look now, he's only half way through his presidency according to the liberal media.
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