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Old 10-24-2012, 11:45 AM  
Mr. Laz Mr. Laz is offline
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U.S. oil output is surging so fast that the US could soon overtake Saudi Arabia

US may soon become world’s top oil producer

Posted on October 23, 2012 at 1:23 pm by Associated Press in Oil


(Photo: Fotolia)



NEW YORK — U.S. oil output is surging so fast that the United States could soon overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s biggest producer.

Driven by high prices and new drilling methods, U.S. production of crude and other liquid hydrocarbons is on track to rise 7 percent this year to an average of 10.9 million barrels per day. This will be the fourth straight year of crude increases and the biggest single-year gain since 1951.

The boom has surprised even the experts.

“Five years ago, if I or anyone had predicted today’s production growth, people would have thought we were crazy,” says Jim Burkhard, head of oil markets research at IHS CERA, an energy consulting firm.

The Energy Department forecasts that U.S. production of crude and other liquid hydrocarbons, which includes biofuels, will average 11.4 million barrels per day next year. That would be a record for the U.S. and just below Saudi Arabia’s output of 11.6 million barrels. Citibank forecasts U.S. production could reach 13 million to 15 million barrels per day by 2020, helping to make North America “the new Middle East.”

The last year the U.S. was the world’s largest producer was 2002, after the Saudis drastically cut production because of low oil prices in the aftermath of 9/11. Since then, the Saudis and the Russians have been the world leaders.

The United States will still need to import lots of oil in the years ahead. Americans use 18.7 million barrels per day. But thanks to the growth in domestic production and the improving fuel efficiency of the nation’s cars and trucks, imports could fall by half by the end of the decade.

The increase in production hasn’t translated to cheaper gasoline at the pump, and prices are expected to stay relatively high for the next few years because of growing demand for oil in developing nations and political instability in the Middle East and North Africa.

Still, producing more oil domestically, and importing less, gives the economy a significant boost.

The companies profiting range from independent drillers to large international oil companies such as Royal Dutch Shell, which increasingly see the U.S. as one of the most promising places to drill. ExxonMobil agreed last month to spend $1.6 billion to increase its U.S. oil holdings.
Increased drilling is driving economic growth in states such as North Dakota, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Montana and Texas, all of which have unemployment rates far below the national average of 7.8 percent. North Dakota is at 3 percent; Oklahoma, 5.2.

Businesses that serve the oil industry, such as steel companies that supply drilling pipe and railroads that transport oil, aren’t the only ones benefiting. Homebuilders, auto dealers and retailers in energy-producing states are also getting a lift.

IHS says the oil and gas drilling boom, which already supports 1.7 million jobs, will lead to the creation of 1.3 million jobs across the U.S. economy by the end of the decade.

“It’s the most important change to the economy since the advent of personal computers pushed up productivity in the 1990s,” says economist Philip Verleger, a visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics.
The major factor driving domestic production higher is a newfound ability to squeeze oil out of rock once thought too difficult and expensive to tap. Drillers have learned to drill horizontally into long, thin seams of shale and other rock that holds oil, instead of searching for rare underground pools of hydrocarbons that have accumulated over millions of years.
To free the oil and gas from the rock, drillers crack it open by pumping water, sand and chemicals into the ground at high pressure, a process is known as hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking.”

While expanded use of the method has unlocked enormous reserves of oil and gas, it has also raised concerns that contaminated water produced in the process could leak into drinking water.

The surge in oil production has other roots, as well:

— A long period of high oil prices has given drillers the cash and the motivation to spend the large sums required to develop new techniques and search new places for oil. Over the past decade, oil has averaged $69 a barrel. During the previous decade, it averaged $21.

— Production in the Gulf of Mexico, which slowed after BP’s 2010 well disaster and oil spill, has begun to climb again. Huge recent finds there are expected to help growth continue.

— A natural gas glut forced drillers to dramatically slow natural gas exploration beginning about a year ago. Drillers suddenly had plenty of equipment and workers to shift to oil.

The most prolific of the new shale formations are in North Dakota and Texas. Activity is also rising in Oklahoma, Colorado, Ohio and other states.

Production from shale formations is expected to grow from 1.6 million barrels per day this year to 4.2 million barrels per day by 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting firm. That means these new formations will yield more oil by 2020 than major oil suppliers such as Iran and Canada produce today.

U.S. oil and liquids production reached a peak of 11.2 million barrels per day in 1985, when Alaskan fields were producing enormous amounts of crude, then began a long decline. From 1986 through 2008, crude production fell every year but one, dropping by 44 percent over that period. The United States imported nearly 60 percent of the oil it burned in 2006.

By the end of this year, U.S. crude output will be at its highest level since 1998 and oil imports will be lower than at any time since 1992, at 41 percent of consumption.

“It’s a stunning turnaround,” Burkhard says.

Whether the U.S. supplants Saudi Arabia as the world’s biggest producer will depend on the price of oil and Saudi production in the years ahead. Saudi Arabia sits on the world’s largest reserves of oil, and it raises and lowers production to try to keep oil prices steady. Saudi output is expected to remain about flat between now and 2017, according to the International Energy Agency.

But Saudi oil is cheap to tap, while the methods needed to tap U.S. oil are very expensive. If the price of oil falls below $75 per barrel, drillers in the U.S. will almost certainly begin to cut back.

The International Energy Agency forecasts that global oil prices, which have averaged $107 per barrel this year, will slip to an average of $89 over the next five years — not a big enough drop to lead companies to cut back on exploration deeply.

Nor are they expected to fall enough to bring back the days of cheap gasoline. Still, more of the money that Americans spend at filling stations will flow to domestic drillers, which are then more likely to buy equipment here and hire more U.S. workers.

“Drivers will have to pay high prices, sure, but at least they’ll have a job,” Verleger says.
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:14 PM   #31
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
That's odd:

As White House spokesman Jay Carney said this week "Oil and gas production in the United States has risen every year since the president's been in office. Oil production is now higher than it's been in eight years."

The fact is that production on public land is down. That's what Obama can control.
Interior could ostensibly be set out to make drilling more difficult and more expensive through any set of regulations an anti-oil mind could devise.

But, yeah. That doesn't really look like the President taking credit. Describing positive things isn't necessarily taking credit for them. Unless you've got some context to share.
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:15 PM   #32
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It's not quite that simplistic.

I was, however, hearing an interesting discussion on NPR about how steel is booming in portions of the old rust belt due to massive oil industry related orders for all the stuff needed to drill, etc.
New techniques in Hydraulic Fracturing and increased drilling on private lands are the cause of the increase in output and the increased demand for steel by the oil industry.

The only thing the current administration can rightly claim is cutting public licenses almost in half and blocking the new pipeline from Canada. But with this President I'm sure he is personnally responsible for the surge. What bothers me is US output ever dropped so low that it was out produced by Saudi.
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:18 PM   #33
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I take issue with Obama trying to take credit for increased private production, sure.

"Under Obama, private oil production increased."

Rs: "Obama is a socialist dictator."

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Old 10-24-2012, 01:19 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
That's odd:

As White House spokesman Jay Carney said this week "Oil and gas production in the United States has risen every year since the president's been in office. Oil production is now higher than it's been in eight years."

The fact is that production on public land is down. That's what Obama can control.
To some extent he can impact production on private land too. He hasn't done anything to encourage it, but he's been trying to eliminate tax incentives that encourage such production for a while now. If he were to win a second term, he'll probably succeed in putting a damper on private land production too.
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:21 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Interior could ostensibly be set out to make drilling more difficult and more expensive through any set of regulations an anti-oil mind could devise.

But, yeah. That doesn't really look like the President taking credit. Describing positive things isn't necessarily taking credit for them. Unless you've got some context to share.
How's this (from the second debate)?

OBAMA: The most important thing we can do is to make sure we control our own energy. So here's what I've done since I've been president. We have increased oil production to the highest levels in 16 years.
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:22 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Interior could ostensibly be set out to make drilling more difficult and more expensive through any set of regulations an anti-oil mind could devise.

But, yeah. That doesn't really look like the President taking credit. Describing positive things isn't necessarily taking credit for them. Unless you've got some context to share.
Did you ever think you would see the day Rs are bitching about an increase in production? Of Oil? In the US? By private entities? On private land?
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:22 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post

"Under Obama, private oil production increased."

Rs: "Obama is a socialist dictator."

It increased despite him, not because of him. This really isn't that hard to understand, is it?
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:22 PM   #38
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Did you ever think you would see the day Rs are bitching about an increase in production? Of Oil? In the US? By private entities? On private land?
No, and you aren't.
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:27 PM   #39
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It increased despite him, not because of him. This really isn't that hard to understand, is it?
I got it. It's one of those "bad stuff = because of him / good stuff = despite him" situations.
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:32 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
I got it. It's one of those "bad stuff = because of him / good stuff = despite him" situations.
It seems to happen a lot with Obama.
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:32 PM   #41
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I got it. It's one of those "bad stuff = because of him / good stuff = despite him" situations.
What exactly do you think Obama has done to directly or indirectly increase oil production on private land?
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:41 PM   #42
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When the price of oil goes up enough wells that would not be profitable or as profitable in the United States become viable.
So If I remember how congress was spinning how the big bad Oil companies operate this increase in production should somehow lower the taxes they pay because
they are ….. Greedy Meanie-pants oily guys.
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:44 PM   #43
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What exactly do you think Obama has done to directly or indirectly increase oil production on private land?
I assume that he rolled up his sleeves and dug a giant hole and scooped out the oil with his bare hands.

You want to pick and choose which things under his watch he gets credit for and which he doesn't. The line you use seems pretty obvious to me--bad, he gets credit and good he doesn't.
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:47 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
I assume that he rolled up his sleeves and dug a giant hole and scooped out the oil with his bare hands.

You want to pick and choose which things under his watch he gets credit for and which he doesn't. The line you use seems pretty obvious to me--bad, he gets credit and good he doesn't.
Wow, okay, I'll try again:

1) Oil out put on PRIVATE land has increased.

2) Oil output on PUBLIC land has decreased.

So, if you want to give credit to Obama for increasing output on PRIVATE land (with a straight face), you really must provide some evidence that he did something/anything to make that come to fruition. If you can't, you really shouldn't even attempt to give him credit for it.
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:56 PM   #45
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Wow, okay, I'll try again:

1) Oil out put on PRIVATE land has increased.

2) Oil output on PUBLIC land has decreased.

So, if you want to give credit to Obama for increasing output on PRIVATE land (with a straight face), you really must provide some evidence that he did something/anything to make that come to fruition. If you can't, you really shouldn't even attempt to give him credit for it.
I'm pretty sure the government has some ability to influence activities that occur on private land, particularly activities such as oil drilling. Go stick one in your backyard and see how that goes.

As I said before, apply your logic to employment. Do private-sector job numbers go on Obama's record or only the public ones?
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