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Old 10-31-2012, 12:12 PM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Climate change is almost certainly responsible for storms like Sandy.

Starting a new thread on this, because this story has nothing to do with Al Gore. There's nothing more deniers of the true effects of climate change love to do more than reference Al Gore.

Don't give a shit about Gore. This is real science, and more and more experts in science and fields related to climate change are coming to the conclusion that the factors that produce storms are being amped up thanks to climate change.

Climate change is making storms like Sandy as big as they are, and as bizarre as they are. Climate change is making storms worse.

In addition to that, this is science that gigantic insurance corporations are starting to adjust to. It's so reliable that huge insurers are adjusting their bottom lines to account for it.

If global corporations are even starting to make radical adjustments to account for it, and you're still not buying it, ask yourself: how far from the reservation have you strayed?

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/...rricane-sandy/

Did Climate Change Cause Hurricane Sandy?
By Mark Fischetti
October 30, 2012

If you’ve followed the U.S. news and weather in the past 24 hours you have no doubt run across a journalist or blogger explaining why it’s difficult to say that climate change could be causing big storms like Sandy. Well, no doubt here: it is.

The hedge expressed by journalists is that many variables go into creating a big storm, so the size of Hurricane Sandy, or any specific storm, cannot be attributed to climate change. That’s true, and it’s based on good science. However, that statement does not mean that we cannot say that climate change is making storms bigger. It is doing just that—a statement also based on good science, and one that the insurance industry is embracing, by the way. (Huh? More on that in a moment.)

Scientists have long taken a similarly cautious stance, but more are starting to drop the caveat and link climate change directly to intense storms and other extreme weather events, such as the warm 2012 winter in the eastern U.S. and the frigid one in Europe at the same time. They are emboldened because researchers have gotten very good in the past decade at determining what affects the variables that create big storms. Hurricane Sandy got large because it wandered north along the U.S. coast, where ocean water is still warm this time of year, pumping energy into the swirling system. But it got even larger when a cold Jet Stream made a sharp dip southward from Canada down into the eastern U.S. The cold air, positioned against warm Atlantic air, added energy to the atmosphere and therefore to Sandy, just as it moved into that region, expanding the storm even further.

Here’s where climate change comes in. The atmospheric pattern that sent the Jet Stream south is colloquially known as a “blocking high”—a big pressure center stuck over the very northern Atlantic Ocean and southern Arctic Ocean. And what led to that? A climate phenomenon called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)—essentially, the state of atmospheric pressure in that region. This state can be positive or negative, and it had changed from positive to negative two weeks before Sandy arrived. The climate kicker? Recent research by Charles Greene at Cornell University and other climate scientists has shown that as more Arctic sea ice melts in the summer—because of global warming—the NAO is more likely to be negative during the autumn and winter. A negative NAO makes the Jet Stream more likely to move in a big, wavy pattern across the U.S., Canada and the Atlantic, causing the kind of big southward dip that occurred during Sandy.

Climate change amps up other basic factors that contribute to big storms. For example, the oceans have warmed, providing more energy for storms. And the Earth’s atmosphere has warmed, so it retains more moisture, which is drawn into storms and is then dumped on us.

These changes contribute to all sorts of extreme weather. In a recent op-ed in the Washington Post, James Hansen at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York blamed climate change for excessive drought, based on six decades of measurements, not computer models: “Our analysis shows that it is no longer enough to say that global warming will increase the likelihood of extreme weather and to repeat the caveat that no individual weather event can be directly linked to climate change. To the contrary, our analysis shows that, for the extreme hot weather of the recent past, there is virtually no explanation other than climate change.”

He went on to write that the Russian heat wave of 2010 and catastrophic droughts in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 could each be attributed to climate change, concluding that “The odds that natural variability created these extremes are minuscule, vanishingly small. To count on those odds would be like quitting your job and playing the lottery every morning to pay the bills.”

Hanson also argued a year ago that Earth is entering a period of rapid climate change, so radical weather will be upon us sooner than we’d like. Scientific American just published a big feature article detailing the same point.

Indeed, if you’re a regular Scientific American reader, you might recall that another well-regarded scientist predicted behemoths such as Sandy in 2007. The article, by Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, was presciently titled, “Warmer Oceans, Stronger Hurricanes.” Trenberth’s extensive analysis concluded that although the number of Atlantic hurricanes each year might not rise, the strength of them would.

Hurricane Sandy has emboldened more scientists to directly link climate change and storms, without the hedge. On Monday, as Sandy came ashore in New Jersey, Jonathan Foley, director of the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota, tweeted: “Would this kind of storm happen without climate change? Yes. Fueled by many factors. Is [the] storm stronger because of climate change? Yes.”

Raymond Bradley, director of the Climate Systems Research Center at the University of Massachusetts, was quoted in the Vancouver Sun saying: “When storms develop, when they do hit the coast, they are going to be bigger and I think that’s a fair statement that most people could sign onto.”

A recent, peer-reviewed study published by several authors in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science concludes: “The largest cyclones are most affected by warmer conditions and we detect a statistically significant trend in the frequency of large surge events (roughly corresponding to tropical storm size) since 1923.”

Greg Laden, an anthropologist who blogs about culture and science, wrote this week in an online piece: “There is always going to be variation in temperature or some other weather related factor, but global warming raises the baseline. That’s true. But the corollary to that is NOT that you can’t link climate change to a given storm. All storms are weather, all weather is the immediate manifestation of climate, climate change is about climate.”

Now, as promised: If you still don’t believe scientists, then believe insurance giant Munich Re. In her October 29 post at the The New Yorker, writer Elizabeth Kolbert notes:

Quote:
Munich Re, one of the world’s largest reinsurance firms, issued a study titled “Severe Weather in North America.” According to the press release that accompanied the report, “Nowhere in the world is the rising number of natural catastrophes more evident than in North America.” … While many factors have contributed to this trend, including an increase in the number of people living in flood-prone areas, the report identified global warming as one of the major culprits: “Climate change particularly affects formation of heat-waves, droughts, intense precipitation events, and in the long run most probably also tropical cyclone intensity.”
Insurers, scientists and journalist are beginning to drop the caveats and simply say that climate change is causing big storms. As scientists collect more and more data over time, more of them will be willing to make the same data-based statements.
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Old 11-01-2012, 10:20 AM   #76
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I'm certain I read that there were 10 hurricanes on the east coast in the 50's.

I suppose cow farts caused those too.



I think Obama ejaculated into the sky to cause this storm as his "November Surprise" to spark job creation in cleanup, construction and building material industries.
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Old 11-01-2012, 10:57 AM   #77
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I would like to just list some things first and then sort them out.
1 Hurricanes Categories are based upon the greatest sustained wind speeds usually near the eye.
2 Sandy had the lowest pressure measurement for its eye that far north before hitting land fall
3 Sandy's size in radius was on the order of 900 miles. Katrina for example was for example around 400. This is the area recruited to the storm with gale like winds.
4 This summer saw the smallest polar ice size take place. The latent heat of melting the ice takes in heat but doesn't change temperature. Allowing cold air masses to accumulate and guide jet streams.
5 Sandy moved WEST suddenly and quickly.
6 Sandy quickly transitioned into a extra tropical cyclone.

Hurricanes structure is a hot center that organizes evaporation from sea surface into spiraling winds and rain. The power of a hurricane can be associated with wind speed squared. So sustained high category numbers are important for when the eye goes over populated areas. But the total size of the hurricane is also a part of the power over area. Area being a squared quantity as well. Sandy did not have the higher winds at its eye but was monstrous in the total area it organized. The size of Sandy is the fingerprint of higher temperatures measured in the warmer waters this late in the Atlantic.
Hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere and the Atlantic move westerly in the tropics but move first North and then ever more easterly as the storm moves to higher latitudes. Sandy, while still over water, took a hard left turn back to the West and New Jersey because of the steering of cold blocking ridge over Greenland. Additionally the cold air masses allowed the jet stream to fold back over itself. There are more cold masses of air in general including the strong front that itself was moving east to meet up with Sandy. These are do to melting polar ice. A second fingerprint of more heat being held on the earth's surface. (And a promise of a wet winter by the way)
The low pressure measurements of the eye of Sandy and the speed of the movement of the eye Westerly was totally unusual and the quickness of the transition from a ocean heat powered tropical storm to a vertical driven from latent heat in the atmosphere Low cyclone was astonishing. And at the end of October. Hurricanes do hit this far north but from the south and not this late in the season. (We did have a less powerful but similar transition from Hurricane Isaac in Missouri. But that was in August)

Gerald North, of Texas A&M, atmospheric scientist in the study of hurricanes, who for years was considered a skeptic of global warming alarmists for sure, states he sees Sandy as 80% natural. But that is still 20% that he is comfortable stating is related to Greenhouse effect increase. That is a fifth guys. And from someone who greatly is pro business, oil and such.
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Old 11-01-2012, 11:33 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by Iowanian View Post
I'm certain I read that there were 10 hurricanes on the east coast in the 50's.

I suppose cow farts caused those too.



I think Obama ejaculated into the sky to cause this storm as his "November Surprise" to spark job creation in cleanup, construction and building material industries.
That's exactly what he's doing. It's a devine storm for him.

He gets to act all "presidential" irght before the election. It's the last leg he has to stand on...if he ever had one to stand on to begin with.
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Old 11-01-2012, 12:31 PM   #79
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I believe the average American would probably take more notice of the climate change issue if we were to look at gradual long term solutions to long term consequences.

When every single act of mother nature is reported to be caused by manmade climate change, it really does make one scoff and think of Chicken Little. When Floods, Drought, Tornadoes Hurricanes, Cold Snaps and heat ways, earthquakes and the rise in gestational diabetes are all blamed on the same cause it really doesn’t help the cause.
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Old 11-01-2012, 12:48 PM   #80
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Nobody is saying Global Warming is caused exclusively by man. Not even the most adamant of climate change supporter would say that.

What are we going to do about it? Well, there's lots that can be done about it. And no, it doesn't involve de-industrialization. That's silly. Nobody is recommending we stop burning fossil fuels tomorrow. But we can definitely form a plan of action to reduce future emissions, and research and develop better forms of energy.

Climate change is definitely real. The question becomes, how much of it is from humans. Some of it is absolutely caused by humans. That can't really even be debated. But again, the question of how much is still widely debatable.

Earth's population is definitely going to grow. Although personally, I think our species would be much better off if we did exterminate a few billion people. But that's beside the point. The important thing is that we don't approach it with the attitude that nothing can be done, and humans can't have any affect. Whichever side of the issue you're on, it should still be very important to the future of our society.

Personally, I don't think that manmade climate change is as much of a factor as some people claim. But I also don't think it should be shrugged off with a "Ehh, we can't do anything" attitude. Current energy dependence should be motivation enough to encourage and explore different methods. Because we are currently incredibly dependent on a finite source of energy. And we're so dependent on that source of energy, that if it were to become unavailable to the masses, it would cause serious social unrest and could potentially halt trade and transportation of everything.
Personally, I think man has very, very little to do with climate change it if any at all. But I agree that we should explore other sources of energy, especially domestic ones. But the problem is that with the leftist policies such as cap and trade, it makes our current energy prices go sky high. I'm not for making everything a lot more expensive just to say we are green.
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Old 11-01-2012, 12:49 PM   #81
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He's speaking out on a situation that he believes is important. You don't think he's sincere?

He had money before, and --shocking--he made a lot money after politics, largely by sitting on boards of directors for various corporations, including Google. And if he's made some money off of activities or investments related to his causes, so what?
You are so gullible. If Gore truly cared about the environment, he wouldn't own those mansions that have to be using tons of energy to power/heat. And he wouldn't be flying his jet all over the country, either. He's just a snake oil salesman, you fool.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:10 PM   #82
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When every single act of mother nature is reported to be caused by manmade climate change, it really does make one scoff and think of Chicken Little. When Floods, Drought, Tornadoes Hurricanes, Cold Snaps and heat ways, earthquakes and the rise in gestational diabetes are all blamed on the same cause it really doesn’t help the cause.
Yeah...except that isn't true.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:12 PM   #83
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You are so gullible. If Gore truly cared about the environment, he wouldn't own those mansions that have to be using tons of energy to power/heat. And he wouldn't be flying his jet all over the country, either. He's just a snake oil salesman, you fool.
Childish.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:38 PM   #84
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Yeah...except that isn't true.
I agree. They (the Al Gore's) only attribute the one's they feel they can capitalise on to being man-made.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:43 PM   #85
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I agree. They (the Al Gore's) only attribute the one's they feel they can capitalise on to being man-made.
Not man made but man enhanced. Only the CO 2 addition is man made. All the components of weather haven't suddenly appeared. They have been increased.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:56 PM   #86
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Not man made but man enhanced. Only the CO 2 addition is man made. All the components of weather haven't suddenly appeared. They have been increased.
I'd just like to know what caused natural disasters prior to the SUV and centrail air conditioning?
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:57 PM   #87
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I'd just like to know what caused natural disasters prior to the SUV and centrail air conditioning?
Before the SUV and air cond there was just paradise, no one had to pay taxes to breathe it was perfect. /The End
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:02 PM   #88
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I'd just like to know what caused natural disasters prior to the SUV and centrail air conditioning?
As I said, but apparently you have trouble understanding, all the components of weather, including destructive ones, already are a part of nature and have no human component. But the added CO 2, which has a carbon isotope signature of human production, enhances, increases, makes stronger or any other synonym you do understand, the existing presentations of nature related to energy and power.
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:03 PM   #89
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Here is what I want to know..

What caused the continents to separate from one large land mass?

What caused a once lush landscape to become a desert, A.K.A., Iraq?
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:06 PM   #90
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As I said, but apparently you have trouble understanding, all the components of weather, including destructive ones, already are a part of nature and have no human component. But the added CO 2, which has a carbon isotope signature of human production, enhances, increases, makes stronger or any other synonym you do understand, the existing presentations of nature related to energy and power.

not buying it...sorry


Every weather related event and non-event has been blamed on Global Warming since it the phrase became popluar.


Snow? Global Warming
No snow? Global Warming
Rain? Global Warming
No Rain? Global Warming

Now they are trying to call it "climate change" which is completely and totally idiotic considering the climate has been and will always be everchanging.
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This is a test for a client's site.
A new website that shows member-created construction site listings that need fill or have excess fill. Dirt Monkey @ https://DirtMonkey.net
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