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Old 10-31-2012, 12:12 PM  
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Climate change is almost certainly responsible for storms like Sandy.

Starting a new thread on this, because this story has nothing to do with Al Gore. There's nothing more deniers of the true effects of climate change love to do more than reference Al Gore.

Don't give a shit about Gore. This is real science, and more and more experts in science and fields related to climate change are coming to the conclusion that the factors that produce storms are being amped up thanks to climate change.

Climate change is making storms like Sandy as big as they are, and as bizarre as they are. Climate change is making storms worse.

In addition to that, this is science that gigantic insurance corporations are starting to adjust to. It's so reliable that huge insurers are adjusting their bottom lines to account for it.

If global corporations are even starting to make radical adjustments to account for it, and you're still not buying it, ask yourself: how far from the reservation have you strayed?

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/...rricane-sandy/

Did Climate Change Cause Hurricane Sandy?
By Mark Fischetti
October 30, 2012

If you’ve followed the U.S. news and weather in the past 24 hours you have no doubt run across a journalist or blogger explaining why it’s difficult to say that climate change could be causing big storms like Sandy. Well, no doubt here: it is.

The hedge expressed by journalists is that many variables go into creating a big storm, so the size of Hurricane Sandy, or any specific storm, cannot be attributed to climate change. That’s true, and it’s based on good science. However, that statement does not mean that we cannot say that climate change is making storms bigger. It is doing just that—a statement also based on good science, and one that the insurance industry is embracing, by the way. (Huh? More on that in a moment.)

Scientists have long taken a similarly cautious stance, but more are starting to drop the caveat and link climate change directly to intense storms and other extreme weather events, such as the warm 2012 winter in the eastern U.S. and the frigid one in Europe at the same time. They are emboldened because researchers have gotten very good in the past decade at determining what affects the variables that create big storms. Hurricane Sandy got large because it wandered north along the U.S. coast, where ocean water is still warm this time of year, pumping energy into the swirling system. But it got even larger when a cold Jet Stream made a sharp dip southward from Canada down into the eastern U.S. The cold air, positioned against warm Atlantic air, added energy to the atmosphere and therefore to Sandy, just as it moved into that region, expanding the storm even further.

Here’s where climate change comes in. The atmospheric pattern that sent the Jet Stream south is colloquially known as a “blocking high”—a big pressure center stuck over the very northern Atlantic Ocean and southern Arctic Ocean. And what led to that? A climate phenomenon called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)—essentially, the state of atmospheric pressure in that region. This state can be positive or negative, and it had changed from positive to negative two weeks before Sandy arrived. The climate kicker? Recent research by Charles Greene at Cornell University and other climate scientists has shown that as more Arctic sea ice melts in the summer—because of global warming—the NAO is more likely to be negative during the autumn and winter. A negative NAO makes the Jet Stream more likely to move in a big, wavy pattern across the U.S., Canada and the Atlantic, causing the kind of big southward dip that occurred during Sandy.

Climate change amps up other basic factors that contribute to big storms. For example, the oceans have warmed, providing more energy for storms. And the Earth’s atmosphere has warmed, so it retains more moisture, which is drawn into storms and is then dumped on us.

These changes contribute to all sorts of extreme weather. In a recent op-ed in the Washington Post, James Hansen at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York blamed climate change for excessive drought, based on six decades of measurements, not computer models: “Our analysis shows that it is no longer enough to say that global warming will increase the likelihood of extreme weather and to repeat the caveat that no individual weather event can be directly linked to climate change. To the contrary, our analysis shows that, for the extreme hot weather of the recent past, there is virtually no explanation other than climate change.”

He went on to write that the Russian heat wave of 2010 and catastrophic droughts in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 could each be attributed to climate change, concluding that “The odds that natural variability created these extremes are minuscule, vanishingly small. To count on those odds would be like quitting your job and playing the lottery every morning to pay the bills.”

Hanson also argued a year ago that Earth is entering a period of rapid climate change, so radical weather will be upon us sooner than we’d like. Scientific American just published a big feature article detailing the same point.

Indeed, if you’re a regular Scientific American reader, you might recall that another well-regarded scientist predicted behemoths such as Sandy in 2007. The article, by Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, was presciently titled, “Warmer Oceans, Stronger Hurricanes.” Trenberth’s extensive analysis concluded that although the number of Atlantic hurricanes each year might not rise, the strength of them would.

Hurricane Sandy has emboldened more scientists to directly link climate change and storms, without the hedge. On Monday, as Sandy came ashore in New Jersey, Jonathan Foley, director of the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota, tweeted: “Would this kind of storm happen without climate change? Yes. Fueled by many factors. Is [the] storm stronger because of climate change? Yes.”

Raymond Bradley, director of the Climate Systems Research Center at the University of Massachusetts, was quoted in the Vancouver Sun saying: “When storms develop, when they do hit the coast, they are going to be bigger and I think that’s a fair statement that most people could sign onto.”

A recent, peer-reviewed study published by several authors in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science concludes: “The largest cyclones are most affected by warmer conditions and we detect a statistically significant trend in the frequency of large surge events (roughly corresponding to tropical storm size) since 1923.”

Greg Laden, an anthropologist who blogs about culture and science, wrote this week in an online piece: “There is always going to be variation in temperature or some other weather related factor, but global warming raises the baseline. That’s true. But the corollary to that is NOT that you can’t link climate change to a given storm. All storms are weather, all weather is the immediate manifestation of climate, climate change is about climate.”

Now, as promised: If you still don’t believe scientists, then believe insurance giant Munich Re. In her October 29 post at the The New Yorker, writer Elizabeth Kolbert notes:

Quote:
Munich Re, one of the world’s largest reinsurance firms, issued a study titled “Severe Weather in North America.” According to the press release that accompanied the report, “Nowhere in the world is the rising number of natural catastrophes more evident than in North America.” … While many factors have contributed to this trend, including an increase in the number of people living in flood-prone areas, the report identified global warming as one of the major culprits: “Climate change particularly affects formation of heat-waves, droughts, intense precipitation events, and in the long run most probably also tropical cyclone intensity.”
Insurers, scientists and journalist are beginning to drop the caveats and simply say that climate change is causing big storms. As scientists collect more and more data over time, more of them will be willing to make the same data-based statements.
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:13 PM   #91
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Originally Posted by tiptap View Post
As I said, but apparently you have trouble understanding, all the components of weather, including destructive ones, already are a part of nature and have no human component. But the added CO 2, which has a carbon isotope signature of human production, enhances, increases, makes stronger or any other synonym you do understand, the existing presentations of nature related to energy and power.
Question: I remember reading that CO2 levels are now ~40% higher than before the industrial revolution. Is that correct? If so, Why haven't we seen much more drastic changes in climate from then until now?
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:14 PM   #92
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Before the SUV and air cond there was just paradise, no one had to pay taxes to breathe it was perfect. /The End
Paradise is hot with not much leg room?
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:15 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Completely false.

And no matter where they form, they seldom maintain hurricane status that far north. And definitely not that far north this late in October.
Nope. Hurricanes never hit that far north.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...and_hurricanes
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:16 PM   #94
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That's exactly what he's doing. It's a devine storm for him.

He gets to act all "presidential" irght before the election.
Mark it down--1st blame of storm for Romney's loss.
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:16 PM   #95
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Paradise is hot with not much leg room?
If you had lived in the Utopia that had existed you wouldn't mock it. Al Gore deserves our most humble gratitude for lighting the way. Paradise will Live again!
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:19 PM   #96
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Nope. Hurricanes never hit that far north.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...and_hurricanes
Did someone say otherwise?
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:20 PM   #97
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And that is what happens. When it does snow it snows in larger snow producing effects. When it does rain, it rains more intensely. But then when it doesn't rain or doesn't snow it is at a higher temperature, for longer time and more drying effects.

Look at Missouri, we were in a drought. A bad one for almost all of the summer. It broke with a huge rain deluge at the end of August from the intense event of the left over from Hurricane Isaac.
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:22 PM   #98
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Paradise is hot with not much leg room?
So you’re saying paradise is a British sports car? Oh wait, you said hot with not much leg room, not hot with not much leg room or reliability.
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:22 PM   #99
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Did someone say otherwise?
Um, yes. you.

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And no matter where they form, they seldom maintain hurricane status that far north
Go ahead and stick with the sky is falling story Henny Penny. It's amusing to watch.
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:25 PM   #100
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Originally Posted by tiptap View Post
And that is what happens. When it does snow it snows in larger snow producing effects. When it does rain, it rains more intensely. But then when it doesn't rain or doesn't snow it is at a higher temperature, for longer time and more drying effects.

Look at Missouri, we were in a drought. A bad one for almost all of the summer. It broke with a huge rain deluge at the end of August from the intense event of the left over from Hurricane Isaac.
It was pretty ****ing cold last winter and no snow. And the few times it did snow we got very little.
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:25 PM   #101
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And that is what happens. When it does snow it snows in larger snow producing effects. When it does rain, it rains more intensely. But then when it doesn't rain or doesn't snow it is at a higher temperature, for longer time and more drying effects.
One thing you can count on is that no matter what has been happening in the timeframe leading up to it, if it snows in January, you will hear a handful of morons say, "What happened to global warming? Where's Al Gore?" and then drool all over themselves laughing.
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:26 PM   #102
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One thing you can count on is that no matter what has been happening in the timeframe leading up to it, if it snows in January, you will hear a handful of morons say, "What happened to global warming? Where's Al Gore?" and then drool all over themselves laughing.
No, what you hear are people scream "global warming" regardless of what the weather is. Whatever the weather is, it's because of global warming.
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:27 PM   #103
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Question: I remember reading that CO2 levels are now ~40% higher than before the industrial revolution. Is that correct? If so, Why haven't we seen much more drastic changes in climate from then until now?
Do you suddenly KNOW the SENSITIVITY of the atmosphere to CO 2 increase?
There is a lag. It is like a dam it has some capacity (one we are adding to presently). The water is actually the material that has to be present to some height. Analogously there is a time lag in filling up the dam and in this case the added heat that can be held in place by the CO 2 present.

It is also related to the logarithm of the Concentration of CO 2.
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:29 PM   #104
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Um, yes. you.

"And no matter where they form, they seldom maintain hurricane status that far north"
You see that word up there--seldom? That contradicts your inference that I said never. Also, you chose not to quote the important part about very late in October.
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:29 PM   #105
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Originally Posted by tiptap View Post
Do you suddenly KNOW the SENSITIVITY of the atmosphere to CO 2 increase?
There is a lag. It is like a dam it has some capacity (one we are adding to presently). The water is actually the material that has to be present to some height. Analogously there is a time lag in filling up the dam and in this case the added heat that can be held in place by the CO 2 present.

It is also related to the logarithm of the Concentration of CO 2.
So you are suggesting that there is going to be some tipping point, where massive climate change will suddenly happen, because of the increase in CO2 concentrations?
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