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Old 11-02-2012, 07:30 PM  
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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I'll call it now..Ohio goes Romney

As of last night:

165k less early votes for Obama compared to 2008

98k more votes for Romney compared to 2008 for McCain

Obama won Ohio in 08 in early voting and actualy lost on election day but early vote carried him.


That's a huge ****ing swing. It will be close but I'll call it for Romney
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:09 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
K look at this and take it for what it's worth...

On Oct. 23rd, politicusa said Obama was leading Ohio early vote 63%-34%

You just posted it is now 51%-45%, correct?

If those numbers are legit I'd say Romney picked up 11% in a week.
I was just using a conservative poll, I don't think anyone really knows the exact numbers in Ohio because they don't identify R or D when they register to vote.
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:11 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I was just using a conservative poll, I don't think anyone really knows the exact numbers in Ohio because they don't identify R or D when they register to vote.
Here is a pretty objective breakdown, I think, on Ohio early voting from today:

For an example of the difficulty of reading early voting in these states, take a look at Ohio. Though all voters are technically unaffiliated, the state tracks them by which party's primary they last participated in. By that metric, Democrats lead the early vote, but by a smaller margin than 2008. It's an iffy metric, though, because there was a Republican but no Democratic presidential primary this year, boosting Republican "registration." Both parties have turned to other measures instead: Democrats say more voters have turned out in the precincts that voted for Obama than those that voted for John McCain four years ago. Republicans counter that the counties that went for McCain are turning out at higher rates than those that went for Obama.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/...voting/264436/
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:13 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I was just using a conservative poll, I don't think anyone really knows the exact numbers in Ohio because they don't identify R or D when they register to vote.
And I should add, while people call Rassmussen "conservative" he was the most accurate in 2008, I do believe. So citing him is not tossing out overly-biased or hack numbers.
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:15 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Here is a pretty objective breakdown, I think, on Ohio early voting from today:

For an example of the difficulty of reading early voting in these states, take a look at Ohio. Though all voters are technically unaffiliated, the state tracks them by which party's primary they last participated in. By that metric, Democrats lead the early vote, but by a smaller margin than 2008. It's an iffy metric, though, because there was a Republican but no Democratic presidential primary this year, boosting Republican "registration." Both parties have turned to other measures instead: Democrats say more voters have turned out in the precincts that voted for Obama than those that voted for John McCain four years ago. Republicans counter that the counties that went for McCain are turning out at higher rates than those that went for Obama.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/...voting/264436/
yep. No one really knows so you could be right..
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:22 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
yep. No one really knows so you could be right..
When it comes down to it I just have a gut feeling and I think it is based on factual realities:

1. The turnout for Obama is not going to be what it was in 2008
2. Romney will get more support than McCain did in 2008
3. A lot of Inde's that voted for Obama are flowing to Romney


I think we can throw the polls aside and agree the above 3 statements are legit realities. To what extent, who knows? But I think they favor Romney in a close race.
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:29 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
When it comes down to it I just have a gut feeling and I think it is based on factual realities:

1. The turnout for Obama is not going to be what it was in 2008
2. Romney will get more support than McCain did in 2008
3. A lot of Inde's that voted for Obama are flowing to Romney


I think we can throw the polls aside and agree the above 3 statements are legit realities. To what extent, who knows? But I think they favor Romney in a close race.
I can't throw the polls aside though. All of them show Obama leading with the exception of Rasmussen who is moving that way. I think Obama ends up winning by 2-5%
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:36 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I can't throw the polls aside though. All of them show Obama leading with the exception of Rasmussen who is moving that way. I think Obama ends up winning by 2-5%
Here is a study of early voting in Ohio if you want to wade through it.

http://www.uakron.edu/bliss/research...tingReport.pdf

Basically the breakdown we are concerned with is that most early voters tend to be "strong democratic" while "strong republican" are more equally spread between early and election day.
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:39 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I can't throw the polls aside though. All of them show Obama leading with the exception of Rasmussen who is moving that way. I think Obama ends up winning by 2-5%
Also, that study shows the breakdown of the 2010 elections in Ohio for Governor, Senator and Congress. In 2, Democrats voted more early than Repubs and Repubs voted more on election day than Democrats. Senator had Repubs ahead in both early and election day.
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:47 PM   #39
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was there some bet?
Direckshun strikes again.
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:49 PM   #40
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:50 PM   #41
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geeeez your going to empty out the neocons from the forum? Playing the long game huh?
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:51 PM   #42
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geeeez your going to empty out the neocons from the forum? Playing the long game huh?
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Old 11-02-2012, 09:51 PM   #43
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Right now, in the early voting, Romney is somewhere between 70K-80K behind if you apply a +10 on the non-partisan vote. If you assume early voting will make up about a third of the vote and based on the polls Romney is looking at around +5 on election day voting and you end up with a Romney win that is less than what Bush got in 2004.

There are a lot of states that are very very close, but when you dig into individual counties (like Clark/Washoe in NV) you see Obama is trailing badly from 2008 but Romney is not doing as well as Bush in 2004.

Seriously folks, based on the early vote and polls it could go either way in a whole host of states. Frankly, I think we're going to see this 1%-2% switch end up going one way or the other and I think whoever wins Tuesday is going to do so with 300+ EVs.
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Old 11-02-2012, 10:00 PM   #44
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This will further cement your lack of credibility. Thanks for that. Awesome.
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Old 11-02-2012, 10:02 PM   #45
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This will further cement your lack of credibility. Thanks for that. Awesome.
Says the gym teacher
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