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Old 11-10-2012, 11:08 AM  
alnorth alnorth is offline
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1980, revisited

Just wanted to illustrate the challenging environment the overwhelmingly-white GOP now finds themselves in.

Non-hispanic white vote:

1980 - 89%
1984 - 87%
1988 - 85%
1992 - 87%
1996 - 83%
2000 - 81%
2004 - 77%
2008 - 74%
2012 - 72%

In 1980, Reagan won by 9.7%. I did a little math, if that election had today's demographics by race (72% white, 13% black, 10% hispanic, 2% asian) and by gender (47% men, 53% women instead of 50/50), based on how they voted for reagan and carter back then in the 1980 exit polls, it looks like Reagan would have won the popular vote by only 8-tenths of a percent. (roughly 45.3% to 44.5%, in 1980 3rd party candidates took over 8%)

I was going to do something fancier with a new re-colored map and electoral college vote total, but the exit pollsters back then didnt do by-state exit polling, just national, so the best I can do is national popular vote.

If those minority racial groups voted the way they did this year, Reagan probably would have lost. Carter won fewer hispanics than Obama did, and Reagan won about 11% of black voters back then.
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Old 11-10-2012, 01:44 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
This is valid if you can show how many people voted for Obama and an R House candidate. Since House candidates are voted on in much smaller districts than the president, which is state-wide, people could easliy vote in several R House member, pick Obama as Pres., and not necessarily be for divided govt.
That's why Obamacare is not popular. It's about a 49/44 divide at least per exit polls.http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83427.html
Exit polls show 53 percent think the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals - a figure that’s risen 10 points since the 2008 election.
Many voters whom Republicans were counting on didn't show. This shows disgusts at the choices.
So you wind up with 51.2 % to 48.80%. That's a 2.4% lead. That happens when choices disgust.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Electio...dn-t-blame-him
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Old 11-10-2012, 01:45 PM   #32
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i have to say it is not a race.
No one considers them to be a race. Stewie keeps pounding his fist over a point that no one disagrees with him on, then acts like if they aren't a race, somehow that fixes the GOP's problem with that ethnic group.
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Old 11-10-2012, 01:48 PM   #33
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I know a lot of white conservatives in Texas want to move somewhere where 90 percent white people live.

I'm not racist, but I don't blame them.
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Old 11-10-2012, 01:49 PM   #34
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It could have been worse for the GOP. Hey, at least they aren't in as much trouble as the evangelicals.

Quote:
“Millions of American evangelicals are absolutely shocked by not just the presidential election, but by the entire avalanche of results that came in,” R. Albert Mohler Jr., president of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, in Louisville, Ky., said in an interview. “It’s not that our message — we think abortion is wrong, we think same-sex marriage is wrong — didn’t get out. It did get out.

“It’s that the entire moral landscape has changed,” he said. “An increasingly secularized America understands our positions, and has rejected them.
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Old 11-10-2012, 01:51 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
No one considers them to be a race. Stewie keeps pounding his fist over a point that no one disagrees with him on, then acts like if they aren't a race, somehow that fixes the GOP's problem with that ethnic group.
So what are they supposed to do then? Promise them goodies to bribe them? Reward some of them for breaking laws?
That puts them between a rock and a hard place. So come up with a solution instead of just complainin'!
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Old 11-10-2012, 02:04 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
It could have been worse for the GOP. Hey, at least they aren't in as much trouble as the evangelicals.
It would be a significant event if the evangelicals were to realize the truth of the fact that they were not going to be able to enforce their moral code through political means, and rationally abandon the cause.

If you remove the anchor of conservative social issues from the GOP, it would turn the entire political landscape of the US upside down and shake it. The GOP would at once be freed from defending those increasingly unwinnable positions and be at risk for losing a large share of their reliable base. A similar effect would occur with the dems since they would lose a lot of their boogie men.
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Old 11-10-2012, 02:09 PM   #37
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The increasing secularization is partly due to the public schools too.

More than just that though:

My brother's kindergarden child came home with a book on global warming, saying I don't want that white guy and Barack Obama, Barack Obama three times in a row. That's because of the UN Agenda 21 funds are being funneled into the govt schools via the SoE. Obama favors the UN agenda.

Production young that will be govt lickspittles.
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Old 11-10-2012, 02:29 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
You are correct, they are not a race, they are an ethnic group. Nevertheless is appears that a) you can easily identify them as a group separate from the group you self-identify with, and b) you make generalizations about the group that indicates you think your group is intrinsically superior to their group.
Huh? They're white people! They go overboard to differentiate themselves from other whites. They're no different. They destroyed the Inca and Mayan civilizations through intimidation, illness and Catholicism. Now they want some special designation that's tangential from reality? Bullshit!
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Old 11-10-2012, 02:31 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stewie View Post
Huh? They're white people! They go overboard to differentiate themselves from other whites. They're no different. They destroyed the Inca and Mayan civilizations through intimidation, illness and Catholicism. Now they want some special designation that's tangential from reality? Bullshit!
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Old 11-10-2012, 02:45 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Stewie View Post
Huh? They're white people! They go overboard to differentiate themselves from other whites. They're no different. They destroyed the Inca and Mayan civilizations through intimidation, illness and Catholicism. Now they want some special designation that's tangential from reality? Bullshit!
There's a reason for the designation.

Without it, we're left with "huh.... white people's support for Republicans dipped a bit. Thats weird. I dont get it, why did we lose? Oh well, this election is a fluke, no need to change anything"

instead of

"oh God, whites have declined, hispanics have increased, and immigration destroyed us. Well its clear we may need to give that issue up as lost"
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Old 11-10-2012, 02:46 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
The increasing secularization is partly due to the public schools too.

More than just that though:

My brother's kindergarden child came home with a book on global warming, saying I don't want that white guy and Barack Obama, Barack Obama three times in a row. That's because of the UN Agenda 21 funds are being funneled into the govt schools via the SoE. Obama favors the UN agenda.

Production young that will be govt lickspittles.
Nobody believes that happened, except you.
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Old 11-10-2012, 07:43 PM   #42
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I wonder if having Rubio on the ticket instead of Ryan would have made much of a difference?
I think it would have kept more right-wingers at home. Rubio supports the tenets behind the DREAM Act.
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Old 11-10-2012, 07:43 PM   #43
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Then I don't really care. If the legal Hispanics (both through immigration and birth) choose not to make the distinction, I don't see what the GOP should do.
Moderate.
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Old 11-10-2012, 07:45 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
It would be a significant event if the evangelicals were to realize the truth of the fact that they were not going to be able to enforce their moral code through political means, and rationally abandon the cause.

If you remove the anchor of conservative social issues from the GOP, it would turn the entire political landscape of the US upside down and shake it. The GOP would at once be freed from defending those increasingly unwinnable positions and be at risk for losing a large share of their reliable base. A similar effect would occur with the dems since they would lose a lot of their boogie men.
Very true.
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Old 11-10-2012, 08:09 PM   #45
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Hispanics are normally pro life, conservative economically and 80% + catholic.

They vote democratic because they are moderates when it comes to social issues. The republicans have ignored them and are leaning way to far right. Plus a lot of them are mexicans trying to get their families here legally and immigration reform and making it harder for them really doesnt help...
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