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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 08-07-2012, 07:31 PM   #2
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Interesting how the left says Obama wins and the right says Mitt wins.
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Old 08-07-2012, 08:32 PM   #3
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This is not looking good for the Ron Paul campaign.
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Old 08-07-2012, 08:34 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Interesting how the left says Obama wins and the right says Mitt wins.
Who? What are their opinions based on--polling or just what they think?
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Old 08-07-2012, 08:48 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Interesting how the left says Obama wins and the right says Mitt wins.
Was Nate Silver a righty when he predicted the Republicans would pick up 7 seats in the 2010 Senate races? (They actually picked up 6 seats).

Was Nate Silver a righty when the Republican's pick up of 63 seats in the 2010 House race was within the margin of error of his prediction?

Was Nate Silver a righty when he correctly picked 36 of the 37 gubernatorial races, missing only on the Illinois race where he picked the Republican when the Democrat actually won (by 0.5%).

Maybe Nate Silver is just very good at this because he uses the most statistically valid prediction methods.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
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Old 08-07-2012, 09:08 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Was Nate Silver a righty when he predicted the Republicans would pick up 7 seats in the 2010 Senate races? (They actually picked up 6 seats).

Was Nate Silver a righty when the Republican's pick up of 63 seats in the 2010 House race was within the margin of error of his prediction?

Was Nate Silver a righty when he correctly picked 36 of the 37 gubernatorial races, missing only on the Illinois race where he picked the Republican when the Democrat actually won (by 0.5%).

Maybe Nate Silver is just very good at this because he uses the most statistically valid prediction methods.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
Maybe so. How far out did he make those predictions?
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Old 08-07-2012, 09:11 PM   #7
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It's funny watching the president run away from the press asking questions. His masters have him on full standby mode for good reason.

It will come down to the debates.
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Old 08-07-2012, 09:28 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
It's funny watching the president run away from the press asking questions. His masters have him on full standby mode for good reason.

It will come down to the debates.
Unless this is a repeat of 1980-84--you are wrong. Period. That and 1960, are about the only "debates" that decided anything.

If that is your solace...first: Obama is way better than Carter; and Romney ain't Reagan, or anything close.

IMHO. Could be wrong, but probably not.
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Old 08-31-2012, 07:55 PM   #9
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Just an update. After some minor movement toward Romney in recent weeks, the projection is not much different than it was on August 7. Obama has a 72% chance of winning, and averages 303.8 EC in the simulations.

Scenario Analysis
How often the following situations occurred during repeated simulated elections.


Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.3%
Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 6.7%
Obama wins popular vote 71.6%
Romney wins popular vote 28.4%
Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 2.3%
Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 2.7%
Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 7.8%
Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.9%
Map exactly the same as in 2008 1.5%
Map exactly the same as in 2004 <0.1%
Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 91.8%
Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 20.4%

Florida still pretty much a tossup with Obama having a 55% chance to take it. Virginia has moved to lean Obama with a 68% chance to take it. Obama leads in Ohio and Wisconsin are steady 69% and 75%. Missouri has moved into play but is still likely Romney.

Frankly without Ohio there is no way for Romney to win.
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Old 08-31-2012, 08:03 PM   #10
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Good sign for Romney is there are more lean states in Obama's column. Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and Virginia are all in the lean column while all of Romneys states are locks or likely with the exception of North Carolina.
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Old 08-31-2012, 08:06 PM   #11
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This is not looking good for the Ron Paul campaign.
Still not looking good for the Ron Paul campaign.
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Old 08-31-2012, 09:06 PM   #12
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It's funny watching the president run away from the press asking questions. His masters have him on full standby mode for good reason.

It will come down to the debates.
It feels like it comes down to debates less and less anymore. Country is so divided now because of this stupid two party system
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Old 08-31-2012, 09:11 PM   #13
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It feels like it comes down to debates less and less anymore. Country is so divided now because of this stupid two party system
I think the debates is where it is usually decided. Two exceptions I can think of is 96 with Dole/Clinton and 2008. Those elections were pretty much over by the debates.
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Old 08-31-2012, 10:33 PM   #14
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Good sign for Romney is there are more lean states in Obama's column. Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and Virginia are all in the lean column while all of Romneys states are locks or likely with the exception of North Carolina.
Why is that a good sign? I'd prefer to have the leaners on my side than the other guy's. Unless you just mean that there is still hope for him.
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Old 09-01-2012, 04:38 AM   #15
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Why is that a good sign? I'd prefer to have the leaners on my side than the other guy's. Unless you just mean that there is still hope for him.
I think he means that the electoral votes being counted for Obama are less solid than the ones for Romney.
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