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Old 11-23-2012, 01:11 PM  
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Fracking to lead to a new golden age?

Dunno if this should be in DC or not, but it seems more societal than political. I thought it was interesting and had no idea that fracking would have that big an impact.

I added the bold formatting in places because doing so will draw your attention to it since I think it's interesting.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/23/busine...html?hpt=hp_c1

U.S. set for fracking bonanza, says historian Ferguson
By Andrew Stevens, CNN
updated 12:30 PM EST, Fri November 23, 2012

Hong Kong (CNN) -- If there's been one consistent thread running through the U.S. economic story since 2008, it's been the steady drumbeat of gloom.
Outright recession or sub-standard growth, stubbornly high unemployment and fiscal crises have been the topics du jour when it comes to the world's biggest economy.

But now an unlikely champion for U.S. growth under the Obama administration has emerged -- a former adviser to a Republican Party presidential candidate and Harvard history professor, Niall Ferguson, who says America could actually be heading toward a new economic "golden age."

And it has nothing to do with Washington and everything to do with energy.

Ferguson, who is also an author and commentator, believes the production of natural gas and oil from shale formations via a process known as "fracking" -- forcing open rocks by injecting fluid into cracks -- will be a game changer.

"This is an absolutely huge phenomenon with massive implications for the U.S. economy, and I think most people are still a little bit slow to appreciate just how big this is," he said in Hong Kong this week.

"Conceivably it does mean a new golden age."

U.S. energy production has been booming in recent years. The International Energy Agency made a jaw-dropping forecast two weeks ago that the U.S. would pass Saudi Arabia as the world's biggest oil producer by the end of this decade -- and would achieve near energy independence by the 2030s.


That energy boom, asserts Ferguson, will create jobs in the United States.

Lots of jobs.

The energy sector currently supports 1.7 million American jobs directly or indirectly, according to economic forecaster IHS global Insight. That could rise to 3 million by 2020, it says.

"It's not only in the extraction industry and infrastructure, but more importantly cheap energy is going to create employment in manufacturing. I think you'll see a renaissance in manufacturing," said Ferguson.

"That is being helped by the fact U.S. labor costs have been pretty competitive over the past decade, even as labor costs are going up in China."

It is also, he says, a big deal for the dollar. "As the U.S. moves towards energy independence and becoming the biggest producer in the world, the dollar can only benefit. Anybody who thought the financial crisis was going to lead to the demise of the dollar as an international currency is wrong -- it's quite the opposite."

And what of U.S. engagement in the Middle East?

Ferguson says it would be naive to assume that Washington would withdraw in any significant way from the region.

"Nobody is going to step in and take the job of being global policeman in charge of Middle Eastern stability. I think everyone would be nervous, if the Chinese suddenly volunteered to take that job on, which by the way they are not going to do anytime soon," he said.

For the recently reelected U.S. president though, the energy boom looks like it could provide a welcome tailwind for his second term.

It's something that Ferguson acknowledges -- though one suspects through gritted teeth.

As a supporter of Mitt Romney he penned a controversial pre-election cover story in Newsweek headlined "Hit the Road, Barack," which was highly critical of the president's first term.

He concedes the irony that the president will now be the beneficiary of the "good times that lie ahead."
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Old 11-24-2012, 07:10 PM   #91
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I'm not saying that you're being political. I'm saying that the masses are constantly fooled into believing that the POTUS somehow has an affect on gasoline and oil prices.

If public lands were to be opened up to oil companies and production were increased, there is absolutely no guarantee that prices at the pump would be considerably reduced, nor are there any guarantees that the oil extracted from public land would be available exclusively to Americans.

That's the dirty secret.

Cold fusion is the answer. Until then, nuclear fission plants should be everywhere.
Harnessing unicorn farts is the answer.
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Old 11-24-2012, 07:15 PM   #92
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I apparently don't understand water filtering.

So I turn on my water tap. In my case, that water started out on top of a mountain, and then it flowed down and went into a reservoir. Then it flowed down a big rock tunnel to Denver, went through a bunch of pipes, and via some sort of magic it comes out of my sink.

At some point in that process, that water got treated, right? Someone had to filter the water bugs out of it and the giardia and stuff. Are there things that a filter can't get out? Or is the problem figuring out what to do with the stuff that gets filtered out?

I've seen simple filtering systems in survival kits that are basically a plastic tent. You let the water evaporate inside it, and it recondenses in the heat on the tent. Then it drips down and you drink it. The stuff that recondenses is presumably two parts hydrogen and one part oxygen. It contains no water bugs or giardia or fracking solutions, and the filtering costs nothing.
Denver has 30 MGD (millions of gallons per day) of recycled water treatment capacity (soon to be increased to 45 MGD). It treats water from one of your sewage treatment plants and dumps it into your drinking water reservoirs. Denver wouldn't resort to recycling water unless the water demand of the city did not exceed what can be provided by those mountain streams. Sounds like Denver is in a water stressed area.

Denver has three other convention drinking water treatment plants that treats river water. Each of those plants are between 250 to 300 MGD. So somewhere around 3% of Denver's water is currently recycled. You can read about the conventional treatment process here:

http://www.denverwater.org/WaterQual...atmentProcess/

This process is designed to move turbidity (particles that make the water cloudy, probably very little from those mountain streams) and microorganisms. It won't remove salts and dissolved organics that might be part of fracking fluids. The fracking fluids can be removed from water, but it might make the water 4 or more time expensive to treat.

Your tent style water purification system requires distillation. For the little amount of water that is required for a camper or two, solar energy can provide the needed energy. To distill 900 MGD or so would require a tremendous amount of energy and be prohibitively expensive.

Your statement about the earth being a closed system with respect to water is correct. But it is a matter of the amount of fresh water available at a given location. Of the total amount of water in the world only ~0.007% of it is in lakes and streams and ground water supplies that are easily accessible for human use. Growing population, the lack of water where people live, and increasing pollution levels, and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change all put additional stress on water supplies. It's a monumental problem on a global scale.
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Old 11-24-2012, 07:48 PM   #93
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Which is why we need to be far more conscious and careful of our water resource ... not more daring and potentially abusive.

Have you ever drunk from a clean, clear spring, Mr. cdcox? Or a rock-bottom, mountain creek in the early spring? It tastes pretty darn good and it's good for you, too. I'm thinking that whoever had the pure, clean, natural water idea had a pretty good one.

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Old 11-24-2012, 08:29 PM   #94
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I'm really glad that they remove the turbidity from my recycled sewer water.
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Old 11-24-2012, 08:37 PM   #95
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I'm really glad that they remove the turbidity from my recycled sewer water.
The recycled water plant has a lot more steps in the treatment process. It takes effluent from the sewer plant, treats it, an dumps it into the drinking water reservoir. I think the regular treatment plants are located between the reservoir and your faucet. So water that is flushed down the toilet is treated by three different treatment plants before you drink it again: the sewage treatment plant, the recycle plant and the drinking water plant.
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Old 11-24-2012, 09:07 PM   #96
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Fracking has been going on in the oil fields since the the '70's, nothing new.
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Old 11-24-2012, 09:30 PM   #97
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I was being a bit sarcastic when I made my previous post. I have no doubt that energy companies will meet the absolute minimums when it comes to the environment. They are out to maximize profits. I'm not an idiot. If the groundwater gets contaminated, oh well... they don't live there.
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Old 11-24-2012, 09:37 PM   #98
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
The recycled water plant has a lot more steps in the treatment process. It takes effluent from the sewer plant, treats it, an dumps it into the drinking water reservoir. I think the regular treatment plants are located between the reservoir and your faucet. So water that is flushed down the toilet is treated by three different treatment plants before you drink it again: the sewage treatment plant, the recycle plant and the drinking water plant.
Interesting stuff.

Maybe this is normal, but I learned something odd a while back. I was at a conference in the mountains, and one of the things we did was a boat tour of a lake. (It was an outdoor recreation conference.) The local guide said that swimming isn't allowed in the lake because it's part of Denver's water supply. I guess I wouldn't have thought that a few swimmers would really make a difference next to all of the dirt and rocks and raccoons washing crayfish and stuff.
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Old 11-25-2012, 12:08 AM   #99
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There are never any guarantees, but it's highly likely that opening public land up for drilling would expand supply and Econ 101 says that would put downward pressure on prices.

Whether the oil was consumed domestically isn't very relevant.
There is no way you can guarantee that prices would fall and it's most particularly relevant that it would be used state side.
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Old 11-25-2012, 12:11 AM   #100
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Fixed. "Cold" fusion is currently a complete fantasy... "HOT" fusion on the other hand is very real and nearing a level where we can produce substantial energy yields.

Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion is currently the most exciting. We'll know by this time next year if the theories regarding it are viable. In theory, a MagLIF reactor could produce a 1000x return on energy expended. Combine this with the massive tech leaps we are starting to make in energy storage and you really WILL have a new golden age. It's criminal how little we spend on this research. I can't imagine any single thing that is more important to our national security.
Whoa.

You're talking Fusion. Fusion is this close? If Fusion were to be realized, not only would the world's energy problems be solved in less than a decade after implementation, all transportation would almost immediately be converted to electric and for the most part, the world would be free of human pollution.

Also, that energy source would be used to power starships and the push toward the speed of light could begin.

It's seriously that close? I've never heard that before.
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Old 11-25-2012, 02:15 AM   #101
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There is no way you can guarantee that prices would fall and it's most particularly relevant that it would be used state side.
You keep hiding behind the absolutist language of a guarantee.

Where that specific oil ends up being consumed doesn't matter as long as it expands the supply in the global market.
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Old 11-25-2012, 08:12 AM   #102
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There is no way you can guarantee that prices would fall and it's most particularly relevant that it would be used state side.
It seems to me that whether it is used domestically, or internationally is irrelevant. It's all about the net import or export when measuring trade deficits, and that's a pretty important factor as well. If we can make more money by exporting our oil than we can by using it domestically, then why not export it? That situation implies that the oil we are exporting is worth more than the oil we are importing. If that is true, why wouldn't we sell oil for more than we spend to buy it?
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Old 11-25-2012, 08:32 AM   #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
I'm not saying that you're being political. I'm saying that the masses are constantly fooled into believing that the POTUS somehow has an affect on gasoline and oil prices.

If public lands were to be opened up to oil companies and production were increased, there is absolutely no guarantee that prices at the pump would be considerably reduced, nor are there any guarantees that the oil extracted from public land would be available exclusively to Americans.

That's the dirty secret.
Okay.

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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Cold fusion is the answer. Until then, nuclear fission plants should be everywhere.
Nuclear power works for me, but even then, it would be a massive and costly conversion from fossil fuel vehicle power to EV.
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Old 11-25-2012, 08:33 AM   #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man View Post
I apparently don't understand water filtering.

So I turn on my water tap. In my case, that water started out on top of a mountain, and then it flowed down and went into a reservoir. Then it flowed down a big rock tunnel to Denver, went through a bunch of pipes, and via some sort of magic it comes out of my sink.

At some point in that process, that water got treated, right? Someone had to filter the water bugs out of it and the giardia and stuff. Are there things that a filter can't get out? Or is the problem figuring out what to do with the stuff that gets filtered out?

I've seen simple filtering systems in survival kits that are basically a plastic tent. You let the water evaporate inside it, and it recondenses in the heat on the tent. Then it drips down and you drink it. The stuff that recondenses is presumably two parts hydrogen and one part oxygen. It contains no water bugs or giardia or fracking solutions, and the filtering costs nothing.
The treatment of the water you drink is pretty complex. In most cases, you are actually drinking your (and everyone else's) "dirty" water.
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Old 11-25-2012, 08:34 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Fixed. "Cold" fusion is currently a complete fantasy... "HOT" fusion on the other hand is very real and nearing a level where we can produce substantial energy yields.

Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion is currently the most exciting. We'll know by this time next year if the theories regarding it are viable. In theory, a MagLIF reactor could produce a 1000x return on energy expended. Combine this with the massive tech leaps we are starting to make in energy storage and you really WILL have a new golden age. It's criminal how little we spend on this research. I can't imagine any single thing that is more important to our national security.
Oh stop it.
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Old 11-25-2012, 08:36 AM
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