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Old 12-11-2012, 08:59 AM  
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2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

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Old 04-10-2013, 04:17 PM   #2701
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A) Because nobody's going to trade you a middle of the order hitter for a guy that's "expendable".

B) I'm arguing that there's a decent chance that he's nothing more than a setup man for the Royals this year and if that's the case, dealing Herrera would absolutely be dealing from a position of depth to handle a position of weakness. That's what you're supposed to do in this game.

I mean c'mon, put this on it's ear here. Let's say Holland blows up tomorrow and the Dodgers, who have Kenley Jansen on their roster buried behind Brandon League, come offering you Kenley Jansen and JP Howell for Billy Butler, you know that Billy Butler is a hell of a lot more valuable than Jansen and Howell. He's a middle of the order hitter. Sure, you'd have a hell of a nice setup man behind Herrera (who would've assumed the closer role after Holland blows up), but who would give up a middle of the order bat to secure an elite setup man?

That's the scenario you're being presented with here and people are really just casually dismissing it as a bullshit deal? Royals fans would flip their shit if the Royals traded Billy Butler, a middle of the order hitter in his prime, to get a LHRP and a premium setup man, even if they suddenly had a need for an arm to cover the 8th inning. A setup man and lefty simply aren't as important as a premier hitter and that's what you'd be getting in return for them.
Herrera's WAR last year was greater than Craig's, and the Royals are operating with a two-year window here.

There isn't another poster on this board who has advocated more strongly for trading relievers, since they tend to flash rather than sustain success, but we have to play behind DM's moves, for better or worse.

The WARs are a wash, but substantially weakening our pen would be very, very stupid in a win-now movement.
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Old 04-10-2013, 04:17 PM   #2702
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A) Because nobody's going to trade you a middle of the order hitter for a guy that's "expendable".

B) I'm arguing that there's a decent chance that he's nothing more than a setup man for the Royals this year and if that's the case, dealing Herrera would absolutely be dealing from a position of depth to handle a position of weakness. That's what you're supposed to do in this game.

I mean c'mon, put this on it's ear here. Let's say Holland blows up tomorrow and the Dodgers, who have Kenley Jansen on their roster buried behind Brandon League, come offering you Kenley Jansen and JP Howell for Billy Butler, you know that Billy Butler is a hell of a lot more valuable than Jansen and Howell. He's a middle of the order hitter. Sure, you'd have a hell of a nice setup man behind Herrera (who would've assumed the closer role after Holland blows up), but who would give up a middle of the order bat to secure an elite setup man?

That's the scenario you're being presented with here and people are really just casually dismissing it as a bullshit deal? Royals fans would flip their shit if the Royals traded Billy Butler, a middle of the order hitter in his prime, to get a LHRP and a premium setup man, even if they suddenly had a need for an arm to cover the 8th inning. A setup man and lefty simply aren't as important as a premier hitter and that's what you'd be getting in return for them.
Who are you comparing to Butler?
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Old 04-10-2013, 04:24 PM   #2703
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Who are you comparing to Butler?
Craig.

Butler's probably a better hitter, but they're actually very similar in that regard. Their rate stats were extremely similar last year but Craig hurt his knee early in the year so he missed some time. Otherwise the counting stats would've been almost identical as well. Their hitting profiles are extremely similar; both RH doubles hitters with homers that are mostly liners that make it out of the yard and can hit line to line. Where Craig hasn't done it as long as Butler, he can play an OF position, notably one that the Royals have a problem at. Butler's going to be the more valuable commodity, but not by a shitload.
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Old 04-10-2013, 04:28 PM   #2704
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
Craig.

Butler's probably a better hitter, but they're actually very similar in that regard. Their rate stats were extremely similar last year but Craig hurt his knee early in the year so he missed some time. Otherwise the counting stats would've been almost identical as well. Their hitting profiles are extremely similar; both RH doubles hitters with homers that are mostly liners that make it out of the yard and can hit line to line. Where Craig hasn't done it as long as Butler, he can play an OF position, notably one that the Royals have a problem at. Butler's going to be the more valuable commodity, but not by a shitload.
Perez is, at least, on par with Molina.
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Old 04-10-2013, 04:30 PM   #2705
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
Craig.

Butler's probably a better hitter, but they're actually very similar in that regard. Their rate stats were extremely similar last year but Craig hurt his knee early in the year so he missed some time. Otherwise the counting stats would've been almost identical as well. Their hitting profiles are extremely similar; both RH doubles hitters with homers that are mostly liners that make it out of the yard and can hit line to line. Where Craig hasn't done it as long as Butler, he can play an OF position, notably one that the Royals have a problem at. Butler's going to be the more valuable commodity, but not by a shitload.
I don't think Craig is that much better than Frenchy that we would need to bother weakening our bullpen significantly in order to get him. You can't simply brush off the fact that Craig has some injury issues either.
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Old 04-10-2013, 04:37 PM   #2706
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
Craig.

Butler's probably a better hitter, but they're actually very similar in that regard. Their rate stats were extremely similar last year but Craig hurt his knee early in the year so he missed some time. Otherwise the counting stats would've been almost identical as well. Their hitting profiles are extremely similar; both RH doubles hitters with homers that are mostly liners that make it out of the yard and can hit line to line. Where Craig hasn't done it as long as Butler, he can play an OF position, notably one that the Royals have a problem at. Butler's going to be the more valuable commodity, but not by a shitload.
Yeah, no.
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Old 04-10-2013, 04:44 PM   #2707
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Yeah, no.
Expound.

Yes, Butler's done it longer. But if Craig performs this year like he has the 2 years prior (yes, 2011 was only a half-season, but his post-season was amazing and long in its own right), can you really continue to argue that Butler's a far superior hitter? Especially when Craig was also an elite hitter in the minors that was blocked by Lance Berkman in RF and Albert Pujols at 1b; hardly shitty company.

They're extremely similar hitters. I'm hard pressed to find 2 guys that are more alike from a purely offensive perspective, to be honest. Let's not forget that Allen Craig garnered MVP consideration last year.

I don't want to hijack your Royals thread any more than I already have, but I think it's fair to discuss players without unnecessarily discounting their performance. Butler's among the better 'professional' right-handed hitters in baseball. But y'know what? So is Allen Craig.
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Old 04-10-2013, 04:58 PM   #2708
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Expound.

Yes, Butler's done it longer. But if Craig performs this year like he has the 2 years prior (yes, 2011 was only a half-season, but his post-season was amazing and long in its own right), can you really continue to argue that Butler's a far superior hitter? Especially when Craig was also an elite hitter in the minors that was blocked by Lance Berkman in RF and Albert Pujols at 1b; hardly shitty company.

They're extremely similar hitters. I'm hard pressed to find 2 guys that are more alike from a purely offensive perspective, to be honest. Let's not forget that Allen Craig garnered MVP consideration last year.

I don't want to hijack your Royals thread any more than I already have, but I think it's fair to discuss players without unnecessarily discounting their performance. Butler's among the better 'professional' right-handed hitters in baseball. But y'know what? So is Allen Craig.
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Old 04-10-2013, 05:04 PM   #2709
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I don't even remember Felix Jose. Who the ****?
I remember he was an Oakland Athletics prospect at one point. However I don't remember Larry Sutton? Who in the **** was Larry Sutton?
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Old 04-10-2013, 05:07 PM
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Old 04-10-2013, 05:10 PM   #2710
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I remember he was an Oakland Athletics prospect at one point. However I don't remember Larry Sutton? Who in the **** was Larry Sutton?
Lefty swinging, light hitting first baseman.
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Old 04-10-2013, 05:15 PM   #2711
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Expound.

Yes, Butler's done it longer. But if Craig performs this year like he has the 2 years prior (yes, 2011 was only a half-season, but his post-season was amazing and long in its own right), can you really continue to argue that Butler's a far superior hitter? Especially when Craig was also an elite hitter in the minors that was blocked by Lance Berkman in RF and Albert Pujols at 1b; hardly shitty company.

They're extremely similar hitters. I'm hard pressed to find 2 guys that are more alike from a purely offensive perspective, to be honest. Let's not forget that Allen Craig garnered MVP consideration last year.

I don't want to hijack your Royals thread any more than I already have, but I think it's fair to discuss players without unnecessarily discounting their performance. Butler's among the better 'professional' right-handed hitters in baseball. But y'know what? So is Allen Craig.
I think you need to re-evaluate your assessment of elite minor league hitting. Also, Butler is two years younger than Craig and has been performing at the major league level since 2007. So don't dismiss five years of production like it is meaningless.
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Old 04-10-2013, 05:55 PM   #2712
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Lefty swinging, light hitting first baseman.
Looks like he started opening day RF in 1998. Also, I remember Kevin McReynolds when he was with the Mets he was a real asshole in Spring Training in Florida to a friend of mine when he worked at the park. Was McReynolds still a turd here?
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Old 04-10-2013, 06:01 PM   #2713
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I think you need to re-evaluate your assessment of elite minor league hitting. Also, Butler is two years younger than Craig and has been performing at the major league level since 2007. So don't dismiss five years of production like it is meaningless.
I'm not. But at some point, sample sizes equalize when discussing future performance. If Craig has another year like he did last year, you're looking at 2.5 years of performance right on par with the best production of Butler's career (and let's not act like it was all win and roses with Billy, a lot of you guys were ready to run him out of town until last season). Personally, I'm comfortable saying that Craig will duplicate that performance, though he does have to make a slight adjustment right now; he's not driving the ball terribly well.

But if he makes that adjustment and gets you to 1000+ ABs at a very high level, isn't it fair to say that Craig is what he is and that player is a hitter that is very very similar to Butler? And while Butler is younger, he's also a fat guy and fat guys don't always age terribly well. Craigs a much better athlete.

Butler wasn't a better hitter than Craig in 2012. He had more ABs by virtue of not being able to play defense and therefore avoided the injury that Craig had, but when both guys were in the lineup, they were extremely similar hitters - surely you'll admit that.

And ultimately, I'll admit that I"m probably jumping the gun a bit and taking his 2013 performance for granted. I've seen Craig play under the brightest lights imaginable and excel. I've seen him hit a bomb in game 7 of the World Series and then turn around 2 innings later, reach over the wall and bring back a HR of his own. I've seen him in spring training in person and seen him develop as a hitter. I'm absolutely comfortable establishing his baseline as his 2012 performance because the guy is fearless and he's flat talented.

And if he reproduces at his 2012 level, I don't see how you can still claim that Billy Butler's a significantly more valuable property unless Butler takes a major step forward as well.
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Old 04-10-2013, 07:07 PM   #2714
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PLEASE. Craig had two significant advantages: He batted in St. Louis and he batted in the NL. Billy is just getting into his prime. Craig should already be in it.
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Old 04-10-2013, 07:25 PM   #2715
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PLEASE. Craig had two significant advantages: He batted in St. Louis and he batted in the NL. Billy is just getting into his prime. Craig should already be in it.
How is batting in the NL an advantage?

Pitching in the NL is as good as it is in the AL; it's the offenses in the AL that make it a little scarier than the NL. The NL hasn't been winning the World Series of late through hitting teams into submission; it's been pitching. As to batting in STL, I can only surmise you're referring to the lineup around him, but that really fell hard in the 2nd half last year and it was Craig that did almost all the heavy lifting after Beltran collapsed then Berkman and Furcal went down for the year. The offense remained scary because of Craig.

And again, Butler being 2 years younger than Craig is at least partially offset by Butler being a fat guy. His prime is going to come a little sooner and decay a little sooner (though the 'fat guy skills' tend to fall off more gradually) than a guy that's more athletic.

Oh, and you'll be paying Billy Butler $40 million over the next 4 years whereas Craig will be getting $19 million over those same 4, so coming at 1/2 the price over the same period surely doesn't hurt his trade value, does it?

You have the more established hitter. We have a more athletic hitter that can actually play the field with a decent track record of his own and an immediate history that is extremely comparable to your hitters at half the $$. I fail to see how there is a massive disparity in trade value there.
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