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Old 12-11-2012, 09:59 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 11:01 AM..
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Old 05-03-2013, 05:33 PM   #3481
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Regarding Utley, you gotta keep this in mind: Getz is about a 0.5 WAR player. He's been on a tear, but he'll regress. Utley is probably good for about 3.5 WAR.

The Phillies would probably not wave the white flag until July, so maybe he can be had for half a season, probably slightly less. (1/3 of a season at the trading deadline.)

If your goal is to rent Utley near the trading deadline, then you are buying 1 win, maybe 2. Wins are obviously at a premium in a playoff chase, but that is what he would be worth to us.
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Old 05-03-2013, 05:40 PM   #3482
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I think Utley would bring more to the Royals than just his raw WAR though. He is a veteran presence, and he would probably be used to insulate Butler in the lineup. (assuming our young lefties don't start tearing shit up between now and the asb.)
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Old 05-03-2013, 05:56 PM   #3483
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Regarding Utley, you gotta keep this in mind: Getz is about a 0.5 WAR player. He's been on a tear, but he'll regress. Utley is probably good for about 3.5 WAR.

The Phillies would probably not wave the white flag until July, so maybe he can be had for half a season, probably slightly less. (1/3 of a season at the trading deadline.)

If your goal is to rent Utley near the trading deadline, then you are buying 1 win, maybe 2. Wins are obviously at a premium in a playoff chase, but that is what he would be worth to us.
Utley was a 3.0 WAR player in 83 games a season ago and a 3.5 WAR player the year before in 100 games.

He's on pace this year for a WAR around 5, so you're looking at about 2.5 WAR in a half season (if you get 75 games from him).

I think his days as an 8 WAR guy are over, but am pretty confident a healthy Utley is still a 5-6 WAR player.

I also think Utley positions you to win better if you make the postseason as well as adding some intangibles (and providing lineup protection for guys like Gordon and Butler).

With Utley, Gordon can stay in the leadoff spot. More men on base when Butler hits makes it harder for guys to pitch around him, which we have seen a lot of this season.
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Old 05-03-2013, 05:59 PM   #3484
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duncan, you are a baseball prospectus subscriber, right? Can you explain to me why catcher framing is all the rage there?
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Old 05-03-2013, 06:01 PM   #3485
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Regarding Utley, you gotta keep this in mind: Getz is about a 0.5 WAR player. He's been on a tear, but he'll regress. Utley is probably good for about 3.5 WAR.
Actually, his "tear" ended with his HR in Atlanta April 16. Since then, he's 3-for-29 with zero XBHs. His slash line has gone from .300/.300/.525 to .227/.250/.364.
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Old 05-03-2013, 06:22 PM   #3486
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duncan, you are a baseball prospectus subscriber, right? Can you explain to me why catcher framing is all the rage there?
I don't get it. I ignore all of that stuff. Just don't place much emphasis on it.

I think some catchers are better at giving the ump a clear window to the ball, but framing pitches is one of those overrated factors, IMO.
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Old 05-03-2013, 06:27 PM   #3487
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Colon is 0.7 WAR or 5M in value. He makes 500k. Getting pretty close, and since he's producing war each of the next 4 years of club control, he's fair value for Upton straight up. More than fair actually.
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Old 05-03-2013, 06:31 PM   #3488
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Old 05-03-2013, 07:02 PM   #3489
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Trading for Utley would remind me of the Braves trading for McGriff 20+ years ago during their first of many NL West championships.
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Old 05-03-2013, 07:06 PM   #3490
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Platoon salvy, who's an amazing defender and good with the bat?

Jesus, dude. You are wrong on almost everything. Entering CoMo status here.
You might want to read the post again. Salvy is not good with the bat this year and he's walked 1 time. I'm just the messenger. I expect he will improve but he needs better pitch selection. So far his fielding stats are way down from last year too. If nothing else he can use some rest at C and id do that vs tough righties. Ignore his career splits if you want.
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Old 05-03-2013, 07:11 PM   #3491
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Fair enough on 'untradeable.' You're right ... we're not going to see Dayton Moore do something as astronomically stupid as trading a blue-chip prospect for a mediocre or slightly above-average player. No Zambrano for Kazmir trades here.

Selman or Brickhouse would be throw-ins for Philadelphia in an Utley deal. Neither would be the headliner. They would be lottery ticket pieces that help you get to the deal (See: Patrick Leonard in the Shields/Myers deal).

Look at what Philadelphia got in return for a very similar player in terms of value just a year ago. The Pence deal can be used at least for a ballpark figure on what Utley would cost. Yeah, Utley is a better player, but he's also older and riskier because of his health issue (and controlled for one full season less).

The catcher the Phillies got, Tommy Joseph, is the biggest piece. He's never sniffed a top 100/101 list, and he slots somewhere around 5 in the Phillies prospect rankings (which is not hard to do). He'd MAYBE be a top 15 guy in the Royals system.

The pitcher, Seth Rosin, is also someone who never has sniffed a top 100/101/whatever.

If the Phillies want a limited upside guy who is close, the Royals have plenty of those (Gio, Colon could be pieces of a deal). Heck, even Chris Dwyer - who has cut his career walk rate of 4.5 by 50 percent this year - would be a useful piece of a deal.

The key piece or exciting piece of the deal would have to be a lower minors guys. Someone like Calixte or Cuthbert or Bonifacio.

The Royals certainly have tradeable pieces, and more than enough to make a reasonable deal for Utley (whose value you're severely overrating).

Upon reading your further explanation I see your points and they make sense. The Pence point is a fair one. I thought thy at was a dumb deal when they made it and their OF has been terrible without his bat. If they didn't plan to keep Victorino why trade Pence? Maybe for salary but again they are flush. I'd like to toss Getz as much as anyone although its a short term move that forces Gio into the lineup next year. Which may be good.
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Old 05-03-2013, 07:38 PM   #3492
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Old 05-03-2013, 07:48 PM   #3493
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Old 05-03-2013, 07:55 PM   #3494
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Old 05-03-2013, 07:57 PM   #3495
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You might want to read the post again. Salvy is not good with the bat this year and he's walked 1 time. I'm just the messenger. I expect he will improve but he needs better pitch selection. So far his fielding stats are way down from last year too. If nothing else he can use some rest at C and id do that vs tough righties. Ignore his career splits if you want.
I did. Still makes no sense, as many others have pointed out.

You don't watch the games, do you? If you did, you would see why Salvy is an integral part of this team and putting him on the bench would be a HUGE mistake.
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