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Old 12-11-2012, 08:59 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 10:01 AM..
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Old 05-15-2013, 08:28 AM   #4141
WhawhaWhat WhawhaWhat is offline
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Drafted only Crow (9th overall no less)
He was 12th overall by the Royals in 2009. The Nats drafted him 9th the year before. He is a solid contributor but still a bad pick.

As I'm looking through the rest of the 1st round that year, Shelby Miller and Mike Trout are the only players worth a pick and it's still early for Miller. DM is paid to get it right, but that was a turd of a first round.
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Old 05-15-2013, 08:39 AM   #4142
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Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat View Post
He was 12th overall by the Royals in 2009. The Nats drafted him 9th the year before. He is a solid contributor but still a bad pick.
Crow is not bad for that draft slot, in that draft, especially when compared to the other guys drafted around him.

Grant Green, Alex White, Matt Purke, Bobby Berchering, AJ Pollack and Chad James were the next six guys off the board.

You have to get to No. 19, and Shelby Miller, before you go "that should have been the pick."

And it probably should have, if Dayton Moore sticks to his traditional draft strategy (upside HS guys vs. college guys). But there was a reason Miller fell to 19... perceived contract demand and signability (he was committed to aTm) issues.

Crow could have just as easily been the righthanded version of Chris Sale. They had the same strengths (velocity, slider) and weaknesses (violent delivery, changeup that needs development, command) coming out of the draft.

It was a decent pick that didn't work out quite the way we hoped, but it still is the 5th best pick in that draft so far (Stras, Trout, Miller, Mike Minor, Crow).
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Old 05-15-2013, 08:45 AM   #4143
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Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat View Post
He was 12th overall by the Royals in 2009. The Nats drafted him 9th the year before. He is a solid contributor but still a bad pick.
You're right, I forgot he was a re-draft.

Quote:
As I'm looking through the rest of the 1st round that year, Shelby Miller and Mike Trout are the only players worth a pick and it's still early for Miller. DM is paid to get it right, but that was a turd of a first round.
YProbably. I'm just pointing out his roster right now barely reflects any scouting decisions he or his scouts made re: amateurs.
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Old 05-15-2013, 08:49 AM   #4144
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
It was a decent pick that didn't work out quite the way we hoped, but it still is the 5th best pick in that draft so far (Stras, Trout, Miller, Mike Minor, Crow).
I agree with you, but I think if a team should get more of a contributor than a reliever in the top third (roughly) of the draft. Of the top 5 in that draft the Royals could have drafted 3 of them and picked the worst of the 3 and the drop off to Crow is pretty significant IMO.

Not saying the pick was a disaster, not saying it was good. Just average/bad based on what was there and what DM produced.
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Old 05-15-2013, 09:00 AM   #4145
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For a guy drafting at the top of the draft so often, Dayton hasn't produced jack squat from it. Colon & Bubba were top-5 picks. We don't know the outcome on the latter but jeebus the former is a total waste.
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Old 05-15-2013, 09:03 AM   #4146
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For a guy drafting at the top of the draft so often, Dayton hasn't produced jack squat from it. Colon & Bubba were top-5 picks. We don't know the outcome on the latter but jeebus the former is a total waste.
It says a lot about Colon and Giavotella that they can't sniff a call up at 2b for a team with a gaping hole at that position.
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Old 05-15-2013, 09:28 AM   #4147
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It says a lot about Colon and Giavotella that they can't sniff a call up at 2b for a team with a gaping hole at that position.
I know what you're saying. But I never liked these arguments because we have to assume Dayton is 100% right to trust that. Gia might be a bit different, in the sense he can actually play at this level. I see no reason he can't be another Mike Aviles whom Dayton let go for some odd reason. Personally I think Dayton hates offense.



• Royals second baseman Johnny Giavotella posted an 8.0% walk and only 11.3% strikeout rate in 503 plate appearances at Triple-A Omaha last season but saw those rates deteriorate considerably (to 3.2% and 17.1%, respectively) during his almost 200 plate appearances at the major-league level. This year, he improved upon his plate-discipline stats, walking in 11.0% of his 418 Triple-A plate appearances and striking out out in just 9.6% of them. A comparable performance at the major-league level (139 PA, 5.8%, 18.7% K,.237/.281/.298, .288 BABIP, 61 wRC+, -0.3 WAR in 2012 so far) remains absent, but the control of the strike zone is very present.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily...rs-of-the-pcl/
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Old 05-15-2013, 09:31 AM   #4148
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I know what you're saying. But I never liked these arguments because we have to assume Dayton is 100% right to trust that. Gia might be a bit different, in the sense he can actually play at this level. I see no reason he can't be another Mike Aviles whom Dayton let go for some odd reason. Personally I think Dayton hates offense.



• Royals second baseman Johnny Giavotella posted an 8.0% walk and only 11.3% strikeout rate in 503 plate appearances at Triple-A Omaha last season but saw those rates deteriorate considerably (to 3.2% and 17.1%, respectively) during his almost 200 plate appearances at the major-league level. This year, he improved upon his plate-discipline stats, walking in 11.0% of his 418 Triple-A plate appearances and striking out out in just 9.6% of them. A comparable performance at the major-league level (139 PA, 5.8%, 18.7% K,.237/.281/.298, .288 BABIP, 61 wRC+, -0.3 WAR in 2012 so far) remains absent, but the control of the strike zone is very present.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily...rs-of-the-pcl/
I thought CP hated Aviles.
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Old 05-15-2013, 09:37 AM   #4149
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I'm not sure how you can complain about the Crow pick given he's currently the 5th best pick and you were sitting at 12. He's been a productive major league player, I'll generally take that with the pick in the teens. If the focus is Crow, the discussion probably needs to be around his development. As Duncan said, he had the stuff to be a #2/3 starter, perhaps even a Chris Sale type. He and the org weren't able to develop a third reliable pitch, and so the Royals pretty quickly moved him to the pen. You could argue they should have stuck with him in the rotation longer on the farm, forcing him to work more on that 3rd pitch.
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Old 05-15-2013, 09:39 AM   #4150
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Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat View Post
It says a lot about Colon and Giavotella that they can't sniff a call up at 2b for a team with a gaping hole at that position.
What works against Gio, I think, is that he isn't doing anything different with the bat at Omaha. It's the same stuff he has shown each of the past two seasons there.

He has struggled mightily at the plate when called up in both seasons. And his glovework is still not even "good."

They've never really given him protracted playing time at 2B, but he also hasn't MADE them when given a chance. I love the idea of the guy, but it's possible he's just a AAAA player.

Colon is off to a horrendous start. The way he ended his season last year gave me some hope, but he has dashed all of that.

Colon is the worst pick of Moore's tenure. What makes it worse is that this pick flies in the face of everything Moore has done in the draft in the past/his normal strategy.
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Old 05-15-2013, 09:42 AM   #4151
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Originally Posted by KevB View Post
I'm not sure how you can complain about the Crow pick given he's currently the 5th best pick and you were sitting at 12. He's been a productive major league player, I'll generally take that with the pick in the teens. If the focus is Crow, the discussion probably needs to be around his development. As Duncan said, he had the stuff to be a #2/3 starter, perhaps even a Chris Sale type. He and the org weren't able to develop a third reliable pitch, and so the Royals pretty quickly moved him to the pen. You could argue they should have stuck with him in the rotation longer on the farm, forcing him to work more on that 3rd pitch.
That inability to develop the changeup has also left him at an extreme disadvantage against lefties, at least as a starter. This showed up big-time in 2011.

His numbers against lefties in 2012 and 2013 have been pretty respectable, actually, and better than his numbers against righties. Weird.
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Old 05-15-2013, 10:02 AM   #4152
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Originally Posted by KevB View Post
I'm not sure how you can complain about the Crow pick given he's currently the 5th best pick and you were sitting at 12. He's been a productive major league player, I'll generally take that with the pick in the teens. If the focus is Crow, the discussion probably needs to be around his development. As Duncan said, he had the stuff to be a #2/3 starter, perhaps even a Chris Sale type. He and the org weren't able to develop a third reliable pitch, and so the Royals pretty quickly moved him to the pen. You could argue they should have stuck with him in the rotation longer on the farm, forcing him to work more on that 3rd pitch.
He's ok. He's not really providing all that much value to the ballclub. He's in his 3rd year and he's provided a total of only +1.3 WAR. That's pretty mediocre. There's not much doubt to me that Louis Coleman could do that for much less than what we paid Crow. (That said we're not paying all that much for Crow right now anyway)
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Old 05-15-2013, 02:16 PM   #4153
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Old 05-15-2013, 02:20 PM   #4154
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Old 05-15-2013, 02:21 PM   #4155
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