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Old 12-11-2012, 08:59 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 10:01 AM..
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:04 PM   #5641
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Originally Posted by Walrus View Post
Hasn't played in 2 years and when he did he put up a sub .300 OBP(Limited games) And hes 30 now. You really think he can put up those numbers? I don't.
If his back and knees are now sound (no given, I know), I think his bat can still be potent/above-average.

Hand-eye and strike zone judgment should be fine. Only question is if his lower half/core is strong enough to regain his pop.

BCD - I'm discussing it outside of having to wheedle to Glass for cash/look bad doing it. That's definitely a road block. But who knows how much he's going to want? Playing time is probably the biggest issue for him, and if he's healthy, KC can offer that.

I'd put fairly low odds (10 percent?) on him being able to regain his former hitting form (when he was a .850+ OPS guy). And slightly better but still low (30?) odds on him hitting the line I was projecting. Either way, if you're paying him $3 million or less for the second half, you get good return on the investment (with potential for AMAZING return).

But if you're KC, I think you have to be creative to compete. Say KC gets to the end of June with a record that's three games over .500. It's likely they have done that with an offense that's still below-average.

Maybe a trade for a bat is easier than it looks like it will be at the moment. We've talked about that in this thread quite a bit. But I'm just a little intrigued about picking the guy up off the scrap heap for no prospect cost.

If they're truly in contention, I wouldn't want to to be the ONLY pick up. But it offers upside that few other options can match...
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:05 PM   #5642
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Let's change directions...

So Grady Sizemore is beginning baseball activities this week and could be ready to play again soon.

How much would you be willing to spend on a Sizemore flyer? In all likelihood, he is never again close to the player he was, but on the off chance he is...

I'd be fine with seeing KC offer $3-5 million for Sizemore and taking a chance on him regaining his form. Assuming he's healthy NOW, of course.

With Dyson coming back, you have insurance. And can give Sizemore a lot of rest when needed.
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:07 PM   #5643
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Also the Royals have signed Dozier for 2.2 million.
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:12 PM   #5644
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
If his back and knees are now sound (no given, I know), I think his bat can still be potent/above-average.

Hand-eye and strike zone judgment should be fine. Only question is if his lower half/core is strong enough to regain his pop.

BCD - I'm discussing it outside of having to wheedle to Glass for cash/look bad doing it. That's definitely a road block. But who knows how much he's going to want? Playing time is probably the biggest issue for him, and if he's healthy, KC can offer that.

I'd put fairly low odds (10 percent?) on him being able to regain his former hitting form (when he was a .850+ OPS guy). And slightly better but still low (30?) odds on him hitting the line I was projecting. Either way, if you're paying him $3 million or less for the second half, you get good return on the investment (with potential for AMAZING return).

But if you're KC, I think you have to be creative to compete. Say KC gets to the end of June with a record that's three games over .500. It's likely they have done that with an offense that's still below-average.

Maybe a trade for a bat is easier than it looks like it will be at the moment. We've talked about that in this thread quite a bit. But I'm just a little intrigued about picking the guy up off the scrap heap for no prospect cost.

If they're truly in contention, I wouldn't want to to be the ONLY pick up. But it offers upside that few other options can match...
I'm with you on the flyer this season. It's just the first thing that popped into my head was GMDM having to ask Glass for even more money than he is already dishing out. Maybe if we were in contention at the all-star break I suppose he might open the pocket book once more.
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:16 PM   #5645
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
If his back and knees are now sound (no given, I know), I think his bat can still be potent/above-average.

Hand-eye and strike zone judgment should be fine. Only question is if his lower half/core is strong enough to regain his pop.

BCD - I'm discussing it outside of having to wheedle to Glass for cash/look bad doing it. That's definitely a road block. But who knows how much he's going to want? Playing time is probably the biggest issue for him, and if he's healthy, KC can offer that.

I'd put fairly low odds (10 percent?) on him being able to regain his former hitting form (when he was a .850+ OPS guy). And slightly better but still low (30?) odds on him hitting the line I was projecting. Either way, if you're paying him $3 million or less for the second half, you get good return on the investment (with potential for AMAZING return).

But if you're KC, I think you have to be creative to compete. Say KC gets to the end of June with a record that's three games over .500. It's likely they have done that with an offense that's still below-average.

Maybe a trade for a bat is easier than it looks like it will be at the moment. We've talked about that in this thread quite a bit. But I'm just a little intrigued about picking the guy up off the scrap heap for no prospect cost.

If they're truly in contention, I wouldn't want to to be the ONLY pick up. But it offers upside that few other options can match...

I think a more realistic option is to identify somebody at AAA who is blocked and try to get him at a non-Ventura price. Kind of like Ryan Shealy.
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:16 PM   #5646
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
Greg Holland is one of the best relievers in baseball.

Go back 3 years. Look at whatever advanced stat you want to look at:

WAR
K rate
K:9
K:BB
FIP

You'll see Greg Holland dotting top 10s all over the place.

And even with all of that in place, I still wouldn't put him in the same territory as Papelbon, Kimbrel and Rivera because of the longevity/consistency issue.

I'd feel fine saying he's one of the 10 or so best closers in MLB.

Jim Johnson has saved a bunch of games the past year and a half. And that's a good accomplishment. But he doesn't have the high K ability to be a truly elite, lights-out closer.

Jim Johnson is good. He's effective. But he's not all that special (and I doubt he's a guy who's an above-average closer for a long period of time... groundball specialists just don't stick in that spot very often or for very long)
Coming from the guy that said Escobar was better then Hardy if all you care about is WAR how can you say this?
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:16 PM   #5647
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Also the Royals have signed Dozier for 2.2 million.
Damn.

That's only $1 million under slot. Add in the 700k of budget "stretch" KC has before penalties set in, and you're looking at a maximum offer to Manaea of around $3.3 million.

This is why they drafted the guys they did in rounds 5-10. They'll make minimum offers to those guys that will be enough to sign then, and dump the extra cash towards Manaea.
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:19 PM   #5648
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Coming from the guy that said Escobar was better then Hardy if all you care about is WAR how can you say this?
I'll bet you, last year, he was. Even duncan has admitted Escobar has been bad this year.
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:24 PM   #5649
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Coming from the guy that said Escobar was better then Hardy if all you care about is WAR how can you say this?
Yes, WAR is the only stat I referenced there. Right. "Look at whatever advanced stat you want to look at..."

Escobar was better than Hardy in 2012 at the plate and in the field and was worth about an additional win. I made the mistake of thinking a young player had figured it out and found a consistent level at the plate, coming off a season and a half of improvement at the plate.

Escobar has obviously cratered with the bat this season and regressed badly.

Please point out a way in which Johnson is better than Holland OTHER than a counting stat dependent on his team or in walking fewer batters/9.
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:26 PM   #5650
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Yes, WAR is the only stat I referenced there. Right. "Look at whatever advanced stat you want to look at..."

Escobar was better than Hardy in 2012 at the plate and in the field and was worth about an additional win. I made the mistake of thinking a young player had figured it out and found a consistent level at the plate, coming off a season and a half of improvement at the plate.

Escobar has obviously cratered with the bat this season and regressed badly.

Please point out a way in which Johnson is better than Holland OTHER than a counting stat dependent on his team or in walking fewer batters/9.
I woudn't have wasted that many words on him. I think my one sentence post clarified it just fine for him.
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:34 PM   #5651
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
Yes, WAR is the only stat I referenced there. Right. "Look at whatever advanced stat you want to look at..."

Escobar was better than Hardy in 2012 at the plate and in the field and was worth about an additional win. I made the mistake of thinking a young player had figured it out and found a consistent level at the plate, coming off a season and a half of improvement at the plate.

Escobar has obviously cratered with the bat this season and regressed badly.

Please point out a way in which Johnson is better than Holland OTHER than a counting stat dependent on his team or in walking fewer batters/9.
But.... SAVES!!!
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:37 PM   #5652
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But.... SAVES!!!
Felix Hernandez sucks too because he doesn't pile up the wins.
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:40 PM   #5653
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Duncan, no homo but I love listening to your Royals takes.
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:42 PM   #5654
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Felix Hernandez sucks too because he doesn't pile up the wins.
Kyle Lohse was 16-3, Felix was 13-9 last season. Lohse>>>Hernandez.
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Old 06-10-2013, 03:50 PM   #5655
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Kyle Lohse was 16-3, Felix was 13-9 last season. Lohse>>>Hernandez.
Not what I'm saying at all.

Jim Johnson 2012- 51 for 54 in saves 2013- 21 for 25 in saves

Greg Holland 2012- 16 for 20 in saves 2013- 12 for 14 in saves


Give Holland 54 chances to close a game do you really think he ends up with 51 saves ?
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ChiefsandO'sfan is too fat/Omaha.ChiefsandO'sfan is too fat/Omaha.ChiefsandO'sfan is too fat/Omaha.ChiefsandO'sfan is too fat/Omaha.ChiefsandO'sfan is too fat/Omaha.ChiefsandO'sfan is too fat/Omaha.ChiefsandO'sfan is too fat/Omaha.ChiefsandO'sfan is too fat/Omaha.ChiefsandO'sfan is too fat/Omaha.ChiefsandO'sfan is too fat/Omaha.ChiefsandO'sfan is too fat/Omaha.
 
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