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Old 12-11-2012, 08:59 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

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Old 06-17-2013, 01:43 PM   #5926
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Originally Posted by mr. tegu View Post
Use the same thing they must have said to Guthrie. Just point out that it is not a coincedence that he pitches very well in The K. But I guess he might not care about that if he is going to get more guaranteed money somewhere else anyways, even if he does perform worst.

On a side note, Guthrie's home and away spilts are essentially polar opposites.
Honestly, if Santana wants anything more than 3/36 (which, he likely will) and Duffy/Paulino and Ventura continue lighting it up in the minors, I would be more content on focusing that money on an extra bat for the next season. Saving it for an extension offer for Shields would be worth it as well.
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Old 06-17-2013, 01:44 PM   #5927
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I doubt they get "close" to Santana's E.R.A. I suppose I am just much more optimistic about our complete 2014 rotation after hearing the positive reports about Duffy, Paulino, and Ventura.
I suppose I am just more pessimistic, given that a few years ago we were all jizzing our pants over the projected rotation of Montgomery, Dwyer, Lamb, Duffy, and Odorizzi.
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Old 06-17-2013, 01:48 PM   #5928
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We will be unloading a lot of payroll after this season.
Not to be uncharacteristically optimistic, but isnít there going to be a big bump in revenue sharing after this year because of the new TV deal? I heard the figures last offseason, wasnít it something like $15-20 million a season per team?
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Old 06-17-2013, 01:48 PM   #5929
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
They'll make a qualifying offer to him, to ensure they get a draft pick in compensation, but it's unlikely he signs a one-year deal.

And I don't think a team like KC can really afford to take the RISK of a 4-year, $60 million deal with Santana. If he reverts/go bad/finally throws one slider too many, that contract becomes crippling.

It's a combination of risk and cost.
After reading that, I completely agree with this....

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I feel like we should consider moving him regardless of our record if the value is there. We have replacements for Santana. We have nothing in RF nor 2b.
And it's not just the holes at the positions. Not only do we need to find a RF and 2B, we need some power RF and 2B since our other positions are probably set in stone for at least another couple of seasons (maybe).
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Old 06-17-2013, 01:48 PM   #5930
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I suppose I am just more pessimistic
After the last 28 years, I do not blame you at all.
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Old 06-17-2013, 01:50 PM   #5931
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Ventura with another solid start at Omaha last night:

5 IP | 3 H | 1 BB | 5 K

They're still keeping him on a pitch count. Want to see him continue working on the control and pitch count issues before he gets the call. But the stuff is electric.
Bubba Starling was also 5 for 5 last night. He's hitting .243 over the last 10 games, which isn't great, but it's a lot better than where it was.
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Old 06-17-2013, 01:51 PM   #5932
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After reading that, I completely agree with this....



And it's not just the holes at the positions. Not only do we need to find a RF and 2B, we need some power RF and 2B since our other positions are probably set in stone for at least another couple of seasons (maybe).
I was of this mindset before, (until I posed the thoughts to Duncan, that is) but I now believe that if we're at least 5 games back come August, the only way we trade Santana is if we can make a Billy Beane type fleecing (with Moore's trading track record, I doubt this will occur).

2013-2014 are kind of our all or nothing years, right? If so, keeping our dynamic 1-2 punch for the playoffs will be essential.

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Old 06-17-2013, 02:13 PM   #5933
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Originally Posted by Bowser View Post
After reading that, I completely agree with this....



And it's not just the holes at the positions. Not only do we need to find a RF and 2B, we need some power RF and 2B since our other positions are probably set in stone for at least another couple of seasons (maybe).
chiefspants already pointed out the main issue with that...

The only teams that will be interested in trading for Santana will be in the playoff chase. And a team in the running is not likely to have a spare RF/2B just laying around that they can part with. Not a good one that would be an upgrade for KC.

I think the only way Santana gets traded is if KC is out of the running for at least the wildcard. Hopefully we don't get to that point.

I still think Chase Utley makes the most sense as a trade target. I know he's old, and expensive, and injury-prone. But he also could give you 2-3 WAR from the 2B spot if he stays healthy the whole second half.

It's the type of move Walt Jocketty always seemed to make, with great success (Will Clark/Larry Walker/etc), when he was in St. Louis, and I think that could be a nice boost for KC. That one extra stick would transform the lineup a bit.

Gordon
Utley
Perez
Butler
Hosmer
Cain
Moustaksas/Tejada
Escobar
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Old 06-17-2013, 02:15 PM   #5934
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I suppose I am just more pessimistic, given that a few years ago we were all jazzing our pants over the projected rotation of Montgomery, Dwyer, Lamb, Duffy, and Odorizzi.
I get it.

Main difference being... Paulino and Duffy have already succeeded at the major league level. They both seem to have recovered completely and have the same live arms they did before. Most TJ guys like that bounce back with almost no problem at all.

When we were excited about those 5 guys, none had pitched above AA. And the best of them (Lamb) suffered an injury and is still trying to make it all the way back (recent signs that's happening, though).
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Old 06-17-2013, 02:16 PM   #5935
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I keep watching the Angels fail to make up ground in the AL West and keep dreaming about Howie Kendrick. Utley would be nice, but damn...Kendrick is a ball player.
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Old 06-17-2013, 02:17 PM   #5936
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I keep watching the Angels fail to make up ground in the AL West and keep dreaming about Howie Kendrick. Utley would be nice, but damn...Kendrick is a ball player.
If they want Ventura, they can stick it where it counts.
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Old 06-17-2013, 02:19 PM   #5937
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The way Ventura's pitching, I would want more in return. But Kendrick brings power, defense, and is only 29.
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Old 06-17-2013, 02:21 PM   #5938
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Old 06-17-2013, 02:26 PM   #5939
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If they want Ventura, they can stick it where it counts.
You're kidding, right? They can have our 160 lb "pitching prospect" if it means getting a stick in return. He's more likely Juan Cruz than Pedro Martinez.
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Old 06-17-2013, 02:30 PM   #5940
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You're kidding, right? They can have our 160 lb "pitching prospect" if it means getting a stick in return. He's more likely Juan Cruz than Pedro Martinez.
Kendrick is hot right now, but when he evens out he generally hits around .285/.330/.410 with around 10 HR's a year (numbers that will likely go down once he arrives at Kauffman.)

From a pure value standpoint, I would want a little more in return for the best prospect we currently have in the minors.

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