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Old 12-11-2012, 08:59 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

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Old 07-07-2013, 11:35 PM   #6691
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Billy hitting 30 hrs is a fluke. I still see him more of a high 290 hitter with 40-50 doubles and more like 15-20 HR max

He's fat but he won't hit more than 20 hrs that often imo
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Old 07-07-2013, 11:58 PM   #6692
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And if he had any protection in the lineup from any of the other turds who were supposed to have power, things might be different. They aren't. Our power at the plate is pathetic.
Bill James has already debunked the "protection" argument.
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Old 07-08-2013, 12:09 AM   #6693
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I don't think he's having as good of a year protection or not, but still... he's on pace for 90-100 walks this year. I don't have the stats up in front of me but he's in or near top 10 in baseball... he's definitely not getting as much to hit. Hopefully he adjusts.

It just kills me though, here's a guy who has a chance to be one of the 3-4 best hitters to ever put on a Royals uniform... he's just entering his prime years, and if he retired tomorrow he'd still probably be top 10, yet it feels like half the fan base is always riding him and doesn't care if he gets shipped out of town.
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Old 07-08-2013, 12:26 AM   #6694
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I don't think he's having as good of a year protection or not, but still... he's on pace for 90-100 walks this year. I don't have the stats up in front of me but he's in or near top 10 in baseball... he's definitely not getting as much to hit. Hopefully he adjusts.

It just kills me though, here's a guy who has a chance to be one of the 3-4 best hitters to ever put on a Royals uniform... he's just entering his prime years, and if he retired tomorrow he'd still probably be top 10, yet it feels like half the fan base is always riding him and doesn't care if he gets shipped out of town.
Billy has around a .780 OPS. He's on pace for 100 RBI's and almost 100 walks this year.

Contrary to popular belief, we still do need Billy, but hey, if everybody is wanting a flashback to an offense worse than our 2010 production, by all means, get rid of country breakfast.
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Old 07-08-2013, 05:13 AM   #6695
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Does it seem to anyone else that Yost is flat out guessing like 90% of the time?

Why sit Salvy twice in one week, especially with Mendoza on the mound?

Also, why sit Escobar two games in a row? Is he hurt?
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Old 07-08-2013, 07:15 AM   #6696
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Originally Posted by Chiefspants View Post
Billy has around a .780 OPS. He's on pace for 100 RBI's and almost 100 walks this year.

Contrary to popular belief, we still do need Billy, but hey, if everybody is wanting a flashback to an offense worse than our 2010 production, by all means, get rid of country breakfast.
I don't know what Billy does in the offseason, but I'm pretty sure it has a lot more to do with eating a lot of beef than beefing up for baseball. If he truly wants to be effective for this team, since we lack a prototypical slugger, he really needs to add a ton of muscle so he can crush homers. He can't run first to third, can barely score from second. He's the least athletic player on the team, by far.

Sure, he's a great hitter and he might be the first Royal to take 100+ walks in a season since 1989. But for a great hitter, he's less than useless on the basepaths. He needs to hit more homers, period. I don't care if his strikeouts go up (and they have already this year), he's got to hit 35+ to make up for his spare tire.
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Old 07-08-2013, 07:20 AM   #6697
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Originally Posted by Chiefspants View Post
Billy has around a .780 OPS. He's on pace for 100 RBI's and almost 100 walks this year.

Contrary to popular belief, we still do need Billy, but hey, if everybody is wanting a flashback to an offense worse than our 2010 production, by all means, get rid of country breakfast.
Nobody gives a crap about a cleanup hitter DH taking walks, gmafb. He's got a 0.5 WAR past the halfway point. He's not even worth 1 game above a replacement guy in 2013. Pathetic.


He sucks this year, it's ok to say it.
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Old 07-08-2013, 07:24 AM   #6698
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Duffy has not had a good return thus far. Dude is getting roughed up in Omaha.

He has a 7+ ERA as a starter in Omaha. Pitched a nice scoreless 5 inning stint as a reliever, but starting......not so good.

It's early, but it would be nicer to see him playing at a higher level in AAA.
He had been much better as of late. The Royals are treating his time in Omaha as spring training, as he starts working in different pitches his numbers are improving.
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Old 07-08-2013, 08:19 AM   #6699
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Originally Posted by ChiTown View Post
Duffy has not had a good return thus far. Dude is getting roughed up in Omaha.

He has a 7+ ERA as a starter in Omaha. Pitched a nice scoreless 5 inning stint as a reliever, but starting......not so good.

It's early, but it would be nicer to see him playing at a higher level in AAA.
He was Baseball Prospectus MiLB pitcher of the week just two weeks ago. His most recent start was not great, but he also was cruising through 5 IP as he got touched for two runs in the 6th inning. I'm sure they're trying to stretch him out.

Also, keep in mind that his first outing at AAA was a 7 ER, 2.1 IP disaster that is skewing the rest of the numbers a bit. Since that first start, he's pitched 23 2/3 innings with 25 K, just 9 walks (2.63 BB/9, which is solid and GOOD for Duffy) and 10 ER (3.80 ERA). He has a 1.23 WHIP in that time span.

He hasn't lit AAA on fire, but he's trending positive.

This is why, though, I've been cautious about penciling Duffy into the rotation and expecting him to pick up exactly where he left off. TJ surgery is not always predictable. His velocity is back...now he needs to regain his command.
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Old 07-08-2013, 08:25 AM   #6700
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Bill James has already debunked the "protection" argument.
Was that before or after he debunked the Joe Paterno argument?
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Old 07-08-2013, 08:34 AM   #6701
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Re: Billy Butler...

The guy is never going to be a consistent, 35+ HR hitter in Kaufman Stadium. That isn't his deal. And people should really stop expecting that.

He SHOULD be a .300 hitter who draws a ton of walks and posts an OBP in the .375-.400 range, while also slugging around .475-.500.

What's concerning this year isn't just the HR gap... it's that he isn't hitting doubles to pick up the slack. Last year, his double rate fell off by about 50 percent as he turned a lot of 2Bs into HRs.

This year, he's 2Bing at the same lower rate but without the increased HR power.

And actually, looking at his splits, it looks like the high number of day games has really affected him. Billy is hitting .304/.381/.462 at night. Pretty standard line for him.

He's been terrible in day games this year, though. .211/.358/.266. He typically has been a little bit better at night than during day games, but this season is the first time he's been drastically worse in day games.

It's probably a fluke/small sample size thing, but it's also possible that his eyes have changed a little bit and he needs to think about trying something out. Possibly trying those orange glasses/contacts that many players use during day games...
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Old 07-08-2013, 08:43 AM   #6702
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Re: Billy Butler...

The guy is never going to be a consistent, 35+ HR hitter in Kaufman Stadium. That isn't his deal. And people should really stop expecting that.

He SHOULD be a .300 hitter who draws a ton of walks and posts an OBP in the .375-.400 range, while also slugging around .475-.500.

What's concerning this year isn't just the HR gap... it's that he isn't hitting doubles to pick up the slack. Last year, his double rate fell off by about 50 percent as he turned a lot of 2Bs into HRs.

This year, he's 2Bing at the same lower rate but without the increased HR power.

And actually, looking at his splits, it looks like the high number of day games has really affected him. Billy is hitting .304/.381/.462 at night. Pretty standard line for him.

He's been terrible in day games this year, though. .211/.358/.266. He typically has been a little bit better at night than during day games, but this season is the first time he's been drastically worse in day games.

It's probably a fluke/small sample size thing, but it's also possible that his eyes have changed a little bit and he needs to think about trying something out. Possibly trying those orange glasses/contacts that many players use during day games...
The day game SLG line is amazingly atrocious.
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Old 07-08-2013, 09:28 AM   #6703
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Re: Billy Butler...

The guy is never going to be a consistent, 35+ HR hitter in Kaufman Stadium. That isn't his deal. And people should really stop expecting that.

He SHOULD be a .300 hitter who draws a ton of walks and posts an OBP in the .375-.400 range, while also slugging around .475-.500.

What's concerning this year isn't just the HR gap... it's that he isn't hitting doubles to pick up the slack. Last year, his double rate fell off by about 50 percent as he turned a lot of 2Bs into HRs.

This year, he's 2Bing at the same lower rate but without the increased HR power.

And actually, looking at his splits, it looks like the high number of day games has really affected him. Billy is hitting .304/.381/.462 at night. Pretty standard line for him.

He's been terrible in day games this year, though. .211/.358/.266. He typically has been a little bit better at night than during day games, but this season is the first time he's been drastically worse in day games.

It's probably a fluke/small sample size thing, but it's also possible that his eyes have changed a little bit and he needs to think about trying something out. Possibly trying those orange glasses/contacts that many players use during day games...
Billy has a great eye for the ball that most of our guys seem to lack. He just doesn't have the other tools that make a great ballplayer, especially as a DH. On this team, he can't afford to be as unathletic as he is.

According to the Royals website, he's 6'1" 240lbs. I'd put him at 5'11" 245 in real life. He's gotta drop at least 40lbs of fat (anyone who has seen his selfie KNOWS that's all dough and no go) to be in reasonably good shape. His relationship with food outside the game (rumors about his binge eating fetish notwithstanding) has to be brought under control, because it hurts his game if he's not pumping iron. Hell, Jason Giambi is 42 and is a better baserunner. Salvy can run circles around him. Adam Dunn could probably run circles around him and he's 6'6" ~285-300lb. In 2010, he got out-jumped by Joel Goldberg. JOEL GOLDBERG.

I like Billy, but to be effective on this team, he HAS to do something different. There are too many question marks in the lineup for him to not make the best of the opportunity he has (e.g. not being the Eric Cartman of baseball).

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Old 07-08-2013, 09:43 AM   #6704
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Was that before or after he debunked the Joe Paterno argument?
http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomi...-doesnt-exist/


Not only is "protection" a myth, some studies have found having a very slight harmful effect having a good hitter behind you. In an effort to keep the batter off base while Mr. Big stands in the on-deck circle, the pitcher may in fact try harder and use his best stuff to retire the guy so he's not on base when Big comes to the plate.
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Old 07-08-2013, 01:50 PM   #6705
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Louis Coleman up, Will Smith down.

Gio back in lineup at 2B.

Escobar back batting second.
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If you make enough good decisions, three-year plans turn into two-year plans and five-year plans turn into three-year plans. If you make bad decisions, 10-year plans turn into no plan. -- Dayton Moore, 2006

"I'm not talking about getting to .500, I'm talking about winning the World Series when I say eight to 10 years." -- Dayton Moore, May 20, 2009
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