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Old 12-11-2012, 08:59 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 10:01 AM..
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Old 07-09-2013, 11:16 AM   #6736
Sure-Oz Sure-Oz is offline
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They'll try to keep Shields but will most likely deal Santana. He's going to demand too much, and he hasn't been as consistent as Shields -not this year but career wise I mean. Also what they do will depend on what Paulino and Duffy can do in the next couple weeks.
I hope they take a hard look at trading Santana, cause i'd like to think near that deadline or the deadline day there will be huge demand for a SP. That said i just don't see Dayton waiving the white flag if the Royals are at .500 or just above .500.
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Old 07-09-2013, 11:20 AM   #6737
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I hope they take a hard look at trading Santana, cause i'd like to think near that deadline or the deadline day there will be huge demand for a SP. That said i just don't see Dayton waiving the white flag if the Royals are at .500 or just above .500.
If we are around .500 at the break, I keep Santana and play it out. If we're more than 2 games under, I'd look at moving him.
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Old 07-09-2013, 11:24 AM   #6738
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If we are around .500 at the break, I keep Santana and play it out. If we're more than 2 games under, I'd look at moving him.
If they're within a handful at worst games out of first I think they have to try. They def. need to break .500 and stay above it
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Old 07-09-2013, 11:30 AM   #6739
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I hope they take a hard look at trading Santana, cause i'd like to think near that deadline or the deadline day there will be huge demand for a SP. That said i just don't see Dayton waiving the white flag if the Royals are at .500 or just above .500.
Trading Santana makes sense if:

1) You're out of playoff contention for 2013 (more than a half-dozen games back)
2) You get back a legitimate top 50-75 prospect who is ready to help the big-league club in 2014. You're talking about guys like Adalbert Mondesi/Cheslor Cuthbert/Jorge Bonifacio (current) or Danny Duffy (past) at that point.

If both of those things aren't present, I think you get more value out of him by keeping him, tendering him a qualifying offer, and picking up a supplemental pick in the 2014 draft (which is valuable for the draft pool dollars AND the potential to add a top 75 type guy to your squad).

For example, if the Royals had owned a supplemental pick in this draft, they could have taken Austin Meadows at No. 8 instead of Dozier and comfortably signed him while still landing Manaea and maybe even Dozier.
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Old 07-09-2013, 11:31 AM   #6740
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If they're within a handful at worst games out of first I think they have to try. They def. need to break .500 and stay above it
Yeah, I think the stat I read the other day was since the Wildcard era, no team 5 games under .500 at the AS break has reached the post season. I think it was only a couple that had reached the post season sitting 2 games under at the AS break. The A's last year and the Twins in '03. I'm too lazy to look up the actual stat, though.
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Old 07-09-2013, 11:43 AM   #6741
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Given that Garza appears to be the top pitcher on the market, Santana might bring a really nice haul.

This could be a perfect "buy low, sell high" opportunity.
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Old 07-09-2013, 11:57 AM   #6742
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Given that Garza appears to be the top pitcher on the market, Santana might bring a really nice haul.

This could be a perfect "buy low, sell high" opportunity.
Probably BS but Matt Garza, Cubs talking contract extension
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Old 07-09-2013, 12:04 PM   #6743
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Yeah, i wouldn't trade Santana just to get some b guys, it'd have to be the right deal. As for Garza, hes likely to go regardless of that extension talk...esp if he gets traded Santanas price would be huge.
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Old 07-09-2013, 12:04 PM   #6744
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For example, if the Royals had owned a supplemental pick in this draft, they could have taken Austin Meadows at No. 8 instead of Dozier and comfortably signed him while still landing Manaea and maybe even Dozier.
Duncan, Can you elaborate on this. The supplemental picks in the 2013 draft were after round 3. How would that have changed the Dozier / Manaea (balance pick) to Meadows / Manaea ? thanks, DS
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Old 07-09-2013, 01:00 PM   #6745
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If you get Ibanez, you plan to contend for a pennant this season, right? I mean, Raul will be, what, 47 next season?
At least win the division and go from there. This team can hit, they just can't hit for power on a consistent basis. Raul will help that.

And what is there to lose? A b prospect and a little over a mill?
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Old 07-09-2013, 01:04 PM   #6746
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At least win the division and go from there. This team can hit, they just can't hit for power on a consistent basis. Raul will help that.

And what is there to lose? A b prospect and a little over a mill?
If the Royals are close and serious they have to make hard attempts to get a starting RF'er and 2b. Utley and Ibanez should be able to be had granted they want to come
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Old 07-09-2013, 01:32 PM   #6747
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Old 07-09-2013, 01:33 PM   #6748
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Duncan, Can you elaborate on this. The supplemental picks in the 2013 draft were after round 3. How would that have changed the Dozier / Manaea (balance pick) to Meadows / Manaea ? thanks, DS
The system works like this:

If the Royals make a qualifying offer to a free agent who signs with another team. They get a compensation pick at the end of the first-round.

The team that signed Santana would lose its first-round pick, unless it is in the top 10 of the draft (in which case it would lose its next-highest pick). The team that lost Santana would then receive a pick at the end of the first round.

Example from this year: The Brewers had the 17th pick and signed Kyle Lohse, who was on a qualifying offer from the Cardinals. The Brewers lost their pick, with everyone behind them moving up one slot, and the Cardinals ended up with a compensation pick in the first round (No. 28).

So, if KC had been in a similar boat and made a qualifying offer to another FA THIS year, they would have received an extra pick somewhere between 28 and 34. (All comp picks are taken BEFORE the start of the competitive balance round).

That would have given KC:

No. 8 (regular pick)
No. 28-34 (comp pick for FA)
No. 35 (competitive balance pick)
No. 46 (second-round pick)

With the extra $1.75 million the Royals got for the extra comp pick, they could have taken Meadows at No. 8 and paid him slot (because they no longer need to save at that pick to sign Manaea). They can take Manaea with either of the next two picks, and take a lesser college player they're certain of signing with the other. That's where the savings for signing Manaea could have been found.

In next year's draft, the Royals likely will be picking somewhere in the teens with their first-round pick. If they make a qualifying offer to Santana and he signs with a different team, they'll get an extra pick at the end of the first round for him, with the signing team forfeiting their first-rounder. Then, they'll get a competitive balance pick.

That extra $1.75 million from the extra first-round pick could come in really handy. That would give the flexibility to take someone with their REGULAR first-rounder who was falling due to price concerns. Or simply let them take another first-round type talent.
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Old 07-09-2013, 01:38 PM   #6749
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If the Royals are close and serious they have to make hard attempts to get a starting RF'er and 2b. Utley and Ibanez should be able to be had granted they want to come
The problem is 7 million for a half season of utley may hinder us signing guys in the future because we're maxed out and cheap.
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Old 07-09-2013, 02:22 PM   #6750
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The system works like this:

If the Royals make a qualifying offer to a free agent who signs with another team. They get a compensation pick at the end of the first-round.

The team that signed Santana would lose its first-round pick, unless it is in the top 10 of the draft (in which case it would lose its next-highest pick). The team that lost Santana would then receive a pick at the end of the first round.

Example from this year: The Brewers had the 17th pick and signed Kyle Lohse, who was on a qualifying offer from the Cardinals. The Brewers lost their pick, with everyone behind them moving up one slot, and the Cardinals ended up with a compensation pick in the first round (No. 28).

So, if KC had been in a similar boat and made a qualifying offer to another FA THIS year, they would have received an extra pick somewhere between 28 and 34. (All comp picks are taken BEFORE the start of the competitive balance round).

That would have given KC:

No. 8 (regular pick)
No. 28-34 (comp pick for FA)
No. 35 (competitive balance pick)
No. 46 (second-round pick)

With the extra $1.75 million the Royals got for the extra comp pick, they could have taken Meadows at No. 8 and paid him slot (because they no longer need to save at that pick to sign Manaea). They can take Manaea with either of the next two picks, and take a lesser college player they're certain of signing with the other. That's where the savings for signing Manaea could have been found.

In next year's draft, the Royals likely will be picking somewhere in the teens with their first-round pick. If they make a qualifying offer to Santana and he signs with a different team, they'll get an extra pick at the end of the first round for him, with the signing team forfeiting their first-rounder. Then, they'll get a competitive balance pick.

That extra $1.75 million from the extra first-round pick could come in really handy. That would give the flexibility to take someone with their REGULAR first-rounder who was falling due to price concerns. Or simply let them take another first-round type talent.
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