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Old 12-11-2012, 09:59 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 11:01 AM..
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Old 07-13-2013, 12:27 AM   #6931
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Yeah, but the Royals will never be taken seriously or "realistically" expected to win anything, until they do. If the Tigers were 7 games behind the Royals everyone would expect them to come back and win the division. Might as well just quit and fold up shop.
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Old 07-13-2013, 12:29 AM   #6932
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
That's the dumbest ****ing post in a thread of dumb ****ing posts.

Salvador Perez and his 3.8 WAR projection aren't worth Taveras alone.


Your terrible GM is not a barometer of good trades. The same guy who traded away two years of Greinke's service to Doug Melvin for Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain when Melvin got Jean Segura for two months of Greinke probably shouldn't be judging Wil Myers' value.

Your dumbass would kill for Taveras, Wacha, Kolten Wong, and Carlos Martinez. That's not to mention the wave of rookies that have just come up from that farm system: Rosenthal, Siegrist, Matt Adams, and Shelby Miller.

Christ, Shelby Miller has been better than any Royals player this year.
I have to laugh here. You're responding to fans of The. Best. Farm. System. In. Baseball. History. as evaluated by many a "baseball expert."

These prospects don't mean shit. Minor-league Gordon wouldn't wipe his ass with the trading card of any of these guys. We're talking minor-league gods when discussing Gordon and Hosmer.

Sal Perez, on the other hand, is a real-life beast. Don't disrespect him by comparing him to a #2 pitcher like Shields.
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Old 07-13-2013, 12:29 AM   #6933
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
That's the dumbest ****ing post in a thread of dumb ****ing posts.

Salvador Perez and his 3.8 WAR projection aren't worth Taveras alone.


Your terrible GM is not a barometer of good trades. The same guy who traded away two years of Greinke's service to Doug Melvin for Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain when Melvin got Jean Segura for two months of Greinke probably shouldn't be judging Wil Myers' value.

Your dumbass would kill for Taveras, Wacha, Kolten Wong, and Carlos Martinez. That's not to mention the wave of rookies that have just come up from that farm system: Rosenthal, Siegrist, Matt Adams, and Shelby Miller.

Christ, Shelby Miller has been better than any Royals player this year.
You are high off your ass if you think Tavares is worth more than Perez. You are beyond hope.
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Old 07-13-2013, 12:30 AM   #6934
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Must be a big year for trolls when Tardinals fans to start infesting Royals threads.
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Old 07-13-2013, 12:32 AM   #6935
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Originally Posted by tk13 View Post
Yeah, but the Royals will never be taken seriously or "realistically" expected to win anything, until they do. If the Tigers were 7 games behind the Royals everyone would expect them to come back and win the division. Might as well just quit and fold up shop.
I think the Royals will finish around .500 this year, and I'm probably underselling the value of achieving respectability for a dog shit organization like KC.
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Old 07-13-2013, 12:34 AM   #6936
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Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
That's the dumbest ****ing post in a thread of dumb ****ing posts.

Salvador Perez and his 3.8 WAR projection aren't worth Taveras alone.


Your terrible GM is not a barometer of good trades. The same guy who traded away two years of Greinke's service to Doug Melvin for Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain when Melvin got Jean Segura for two months of Greinke probably shouldn't be judging Wil Myers' value.

Your dumbass would kill for Taveras, Wacha, Kolten Wong, and Carlos Martinez. That's not to mention the wave of rookies that have just come up from that farm system: Rosenthal, Siegrist, Matt Adams, and Shelby Miller.

Christ, Shelby Miller has been better than any Royals player this year.
1985. DICKENGHER. RYAN HOWARD.

HAHAHA! SUCK ITZ, CARDHNALS FAND!

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Old 07-13-2013, 12:36 AM   #6937
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Originally Posted by DeezNutz View Post
I have to laugh here. You're responding to fans of The. Best. Farm. System. In. Baseball. History. as evaluated by many a "baseball expert."

These prospects don't mean shit. Minor-league Gordon wouldn't wipe his ass with the trading card of any of these guys. We're talking minor-league gods when discussing Gordon and Hosmer.

Sal Perez, on the other hand, is a real-life beast. Don't disrespect him by comparing him to a #2 pitcher like Shields.
Perhaps those guys are minor league gods because Royals fans overrate their prospects to give themselves hope.

And Sal Perez and his OPS+ of 96 isn't beastly.

Furthermore, he said he wouldn't trade the Cardinals' entire system for Perez. There isn't a GM in baseball who doesn't take that package for Salvador Perez.
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Old 07-13-2013, 12:37 AM   #6938
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Moose wasn't a hack either... although it's easy to pick on him now. His last full minor league season he played 118 games and put up 94 runs, 36 HR and 124 RBI. Massive numbers, hard to argue otherwise.
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Old 07-13-2013, 12:40 AM   #6939
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Moustakas, Hosmer, and Gordon were all elite prospects, but they aren't prospects anymore. Perhaps getting burned by their underachieving has soured Royals fans on the ability of prospects to project.
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Old 07-13-2013, 12:43 AM   #6940
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Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
Perhaps those guys are minor league gods because Royals fans overrate their prospects to give themselves hope.

And Sal Perez and his OPS+ of 96 isn't beastly.
Dude, their numbers in the minors speak for themselves.

Hosmer in AAA: .439/.525/.582 (and don't even think about "sample sizing" me, because he ****ing owned AA, too)
Gordon in the minors in '06: .325/.427/.588

No need for creative interpretation here; these guys looked like ****ing monsters, far more than anything on the current Cardinals radar.

And I'm pretty confident in standing by Perez and his value now and in the future.
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Old 07-13-2013, 12:52 AM   #6941
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Originally Posted by DeezNutz View Post
Dude, their numbers in the minors speak for themselves.

Hosmer in AAA: .439/.525/.582 (and don't even think about "sample sizing" me, because he ****ing owned AA, too)
Gordon in the minors in '06: .325/.427/.588

No need for creative interpretation here; these guys looked like ****ing monsters, far more than anything on the current Cardinals radar.

And I'm pretty confident in standing by Perez and his value now and in the future.
Two players:

Player A:

.325/.427/.588 29HR, 111 R, 101 RBI, .373 BABIP in 577 PA

Player B:

.300/.357/.566 32 HR 80 R, 100 RBI, .308 BABIP in 513 PA

Both age 22 seasons. Both at AA. Where is the "far more" part other than the hype?

And this isn't to discredit those guys as prospects, but to provide perspective on projection based upon performance.
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Old 07-13-2013, 12:54 AM   #6942
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Old 07-13-2013, 12:57 AM   #6943
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Moose looks like a bust. Hosmer will at least be Willie Aikens
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Old 07-13-2013, 12:59 AM   #6944
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http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=tavera001osc

In terms of minor league metrics, I'll take OBP over BABIP, and Gordon and Hosmer were definitely more highly-regarded prospects, though Taveras is no slouch.

The original point, and one that still holds true, is that prospect status means, ultimately, jack and shit. We've been there and done that, and it doesn't necessarily translate immediately, and I don't think that KC did anything "to ruin" either Gordon or Hosmer.
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Old 07-13-2013, 01:02 AM   #6945
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Player B was Matt Adams, not Taveras.

BABIP is a measure of fortune, IMO, which is why I threw it in there. I think that OBP and ISO are the two most important stats for a hitter. One measures your ability to get on base, the other is your extra base power, which is rarely the result of luck the way that BABIP alone can be.
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