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Old 12-11-2012, 09:59 AM  
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2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 11:01 AM..
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Old 07-19-2013, 08:57 AM   #7261
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
We could dump James' 20M onto owners who care about winning. Don't forget that part of it. Just like we dumped Zack's 27M onto Milwaukee and took back 2 turds in Cain/Escobar. As it's now obvious to all, that was not a "talent deal'. It was another Glass salary dump.
No.

Those two turds will likely have contributed about 12 WAR by the end of the season (in 4.5 seasons).

There's also the Jake Odorizzi piece, without which the James Shields deal probably doesn't get done.

Greinke deal was not a salary dump.
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Old 07-19-2013, 09:47 AM   #7262
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
No.

Those two turds will likely have contributed about 12 WAR by the end of the season (in 4.5 seasons).

There's also the Jake Odorizzi piece, without which the James Shields deal probably doesn't get done.

Greinke deal was not a salary dump.

So? Greinke did 8.4 by himself in only 2 years. A much more compressed time frame. He was vastly superior to that duo by himself. Of course, he did cost a lot more. And you know where I'm going with that right?
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Old 07-19-2013, 10:47 AM   #7263
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So? Greinke did 8.4 by himself in only 2 years. A much more compressed time frame. He was vastly superior to that duo by himself. Of course, he did cost a lot more. And you know where I'm going with that right?
And they control both Escobar and Cain for many more years. I wouldn't be surprised if they get 25-30 WAR from those two over the course of their careers with KC. They're both guys who have value driven by their glove, but value is value.

Also don't forget they traded a malcontent (who, BTW, personally blocked a trade that would have returned Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond) who was known to be demanding a trade.

There is more than enough evidence to use against Dayton Moore, to critique him with, without ripping on this trade. Same thing with Glass.
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Old 07-19-2013, 11:01 AM   #7264
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I’m torn between wanting duncan to continue arguing with the dumb**** because I enjoy his takes, and feeling sad that he is wasting his breath arguing with a dumb****.
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Old 07-19-2013, 11:19 AM   #7265
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I’m torn between wanting duncan to continue arguing with the dumb**** because I enjoy his takes, and feeling sad that he is wasting his breath arguing with a dumb****.
He wouldn't be arguing with me so often if he really thought I was dumb. It's simple really: all you have to do is use objective data, and that will allow intelligent people (not you) to debate. Can't do that with people who just throw out opinions with no substance.

Honestly you could probably learn something watching us discuss this stuff.
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Old 07-19-2013, 11:31 AM   #7266
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So, I have a question: Dayton Moore said "it could take 10 years" to re-build the Royals. So let's test him on that one. I took a look at the rosters of MLB teams in 2006 when Dayton assumed the GM role here in KC. And guess what? Very few players in the entire league are still with their teams. That means EVERY OTHER GM was forced to build a new roster in the past 8 years just like Dayton had to.


2006 Cards: C Yadier Molina, CL Adam Wainright.
2006 A's:
2006 Rays: Ben Zobrist
2006 Pirates: (Here's their team if you want to laugh: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PIT/2006.shtml)



I could do that for any team really and we'll find the same thing: all teams have to rebuild in the time DM says it takes to rebuild a team. Only question left is what was in the pipeline. Pittsburgh had Neil Walker & McCutcheon but then again, KC had Butler & Gordon so that's a wash. Here were the 2006 system rankings:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...006/26854.html
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Old 07-19-2013, 11:34 AM   #7267
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
And they control both Escobar and Cain for many more years. I wouldn't be surprised if they get 25-30 WAR from those two over the course of their careers with KC. They're both guys who have value driven by their glove, but value is value.

Also don't forget they traded a malcontent (who, BTW, personally blocked a trade that would have returned Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond) who was known to be demanding a trade.

There is more than enough evidence to use against Dayton Moore, to critique him with, without ripping on this trade. Same thing with Glass.

I notice you left out Milwaukee's acquisition of Jean Segura for Zack. Segura (3.2 WAR) is outdoing the duo (2.8 WAR) all by himself. This significantly alters your future WAR calcs.
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Old 07-19-2013, 03:52 PM   #7268
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Wong doesn't really have a spot in STL right now, with Carpenter being what he's been and projecting what he does.

If Carpenter could hit 25 HR's I'd put him at 3rd, move Wong up and move right along. However, he can't so Wong is expendable.

I was actually thinking about a deal involving Wong to KC today. WIth you guys dearth of talent at 2b anywhere, I think he'd be a good idea in KC. But I was thinking alot bigger.

Depending what happens with you guys the next couple weeks, if things bottom out, I'd send Wong, Wacha, and anyone else you wanted outside of anyone with the big club now and Taveras to KC for Shields.
Wong, Wacha, and Taveras for Shields? Can we make you John Mozeliak for a day to get this deal done. To be honest though, you should win pretty easy with Wainwright and Shields. That would be two workhorses in the rotation for the playoffs.
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Old 07-19-2013, 04:04 PM   #7269
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I notice you left out Milwaukee's acquisition of Jean Segura for Zack. Segura (3.2 WAR) is outdoing the duo (2.8 WAR) all by himself. This significantly alters your future WAR calcs.
Why would I look at that? The question is: Did the Royals get appropriate value for Zack Greinke?

They got two young, above-average starters who provide plus defense at premium defensive positions, guys they control for a long time. They also got a few minor league pieces, one of whom flamed out and one of whom was a key piece in acquiring James Shields.

Jean Segura, a top 75-100 prospect, flukily turning into something he's NEVER been before (and regressing significantly - he's slugging .411 since June 1, which lends some credence to the thought many had early - that his power was not sustainable) has nothing to do with what the Royals acquired for Greinke.
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Old 07-19-2013, 04:36 PM   #7270
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Because you can't talk about long term WAR values of what KC got but not what Milwaukee got. Jean Segura is clearly part of the Greinke deal because they got him for Greinke. They traded Cain, Escobar, Odorizzi for 2 years Zack + Jean Segura.


But let's assume you're right and we'll just invalidate Segura entirely. Let's stipulate that. So what? The Royals traded for a CF with 2.0 WAR. Their backup Dyson already has 0.8 WAR in 1/4 the at-bats. Why on Earth did we give up something so valuable as Zack to get a player who's no better than what we already have? Admit, it's a great question no?
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Old 07-19-2013, 04:38 PM   #7271
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Wong, Wacha, and Taveras for Shields? Can we make you John Mozeliak for a day to get this deal done. To be honest though, you should win pretty easy with Wainwright and Shields. That would be two workhorses in the rotation for the playoffs.
We'd have to include Greg Holland and probably Starling.
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Old 07-19-2013, 04:43 PM   #7272
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Wong, Wacha, and Taveras for Shields? Can we make you John Mozeliak for a day to get this deal done. To be honest though, you should win pretty easy with Wainwright and Shields. That would be two workhorses in the rotation for the playoffs.
Wait wait wait, Wong, Wacha, and anyone not named Taveras or anyone wiht the big club.
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Old 07-19-2013, 04:44 PM   #7273
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We'd have to include Greg Holland and probably Starling.
Done. A million times done.
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Old 07-19-2013, 04:58 PM   #7274
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I notice you left out Milwaukee's acquisition of Jean Segura for Zack. Segura (3.2 WAR) is outdoing the duo (2.8 WAR) all by himself. This significantly alters your future WAR calcs.
You would be the best GM in history if you could bring along convenient hindsight.
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Old 07-20-2013, 09:00 AM   #7275
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So in just a month of play, Will Myers has almost equaled Moose in HRs and will probably surpass Butler and Hosmer before years end...
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