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Old 12-11-2012, 08:59 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is online now
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2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 10:01 AM..
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Old 08-06-2013, 07:53 AM   #8851
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Spitballing about Wednesday...

If Davis can't pitch, which I'm assuming he won't (rightfully so, given the circumstances), does Duffy get the call up? Dutton mentioned in a tweet that it would possibly go to Duff, so that got me a little bit excited inside my pants
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Old 08-06-2013, 07:54 AM   #8852
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I don't think we necessarily have to make the playoffs to see a big increase in ST sales.

As long as we stay competitive and finish around 10 or so games over .500 (86+ wins), we will see the jump.
That's possible. The one thing I would add is that we, as a fan base, are a very delicate and jaded bunch. We've been abused for nearly 30 years with little to no hint of the playoffs. The older fans, myself included, might be the most jaded of the bunch - we've seen the Royals win, and we know what it's like and what it can be like in this town when the Royals are good. Thing is, emotionally, we teeter a lot. We've seen winning streaks followed by massive losing streaks. We've seen the Royals take themselves out of contention early in the year, only to play great baseball in the final month of the season when it doesn't matter.

If the Royals lose 5-7 games in a row, and take themselves out of the race, I don't see the fans lining up to buy season tickets. They could still win 82-86 games, after losing 5-7 straight, and the fans will lose interest because the Playoffs are no longer a possibility. My point: I don't think flirting is going to get it done unless they stay in this thing until the final week of the season. GMDM did a lot of mortgaging to get to the Playoffs this season. He's not the only one that knows that.

In the mean time, I will be going to at least 2 games this weekend. Can't wait!
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Old 08-06-2013, 08:07 AM   #8853
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The offseason and approach heading into 2014 will be very interesting.

I could see them making a push to re-sign Santana, but I just can't shake the feeling that some team is going to offer him 5 years, $80 million. An offer KC could match - if Glass were willing - but extremely risky for a team that likely will run $80-100 million payrolls under the new revenue sharing plan.

If they can't re-sign Santana, I'd like to see KC pick up another veteran in FA, someone who can help Guthrie and Shields stabilize the rotation and eat innings. There will be several guys that fit that bill in the FA market.

The last two spots, in my opinion, end up as a competition between Wade Davis, Danny Duffy, Kyle Zimmer, Will Smith and Yordano Ventura. I could SEE Mendoza and Paulino (if they are able to bring him back) being part of the conversation, too.

They'll let Chen walk and I imagine either trade or non-tender Hochevar (you can't pay a non-closer relief pitcher $6 million+).

Trading Hochevar in the offseason should bring a strong return. His numbers ARE eye-popping (even if they're low-leverage).

As for payroll for next year, here's what comes off the books:

Francoeur: $7.5 million
Bruce Chen: $4.5 million
Hochevar: $4.56 million
Santana: $12 million
Getz: $1.05 million
Tejada: $1.1 million

It adds up to about $30 million that will come off the books. However, a lot of salaries will escalate:

Guthrie: +$6 million
Gordon: +$1 million
Perez: $ 0.5 million
Holland: ARB
Hosmer: ARB
Moustakas: ARB
Crow: ARB
Collins: ARB

I'd imagine the net payroll gain is somewhere around $10 million when all is said and done.

Which is enough to buy a FA pitcher flyer (just a solid innings eater, nothing special) and a decent 2B (not a star, but someone who can more capably fill that role than Chris fecking Getz).

Now, of course, the MLB TV deal should add a considerable amount of cash to the pool. As should increased attendance and revenue this year and anticipated increased attendance and revenue next year.
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Old 08-06-2013, 08:09 AM   #8854
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We should have great crowds this weekend given the opponent and nice weather and no school yet and winning team. But the attendance this year has been exactly the same as it always has been and this year, we actually got off to a great month of April.


Point: people who say Glass will 'open up his checkbook' if he sees more fans is not remotely true. The payrolls are now divorced from attendance anyway (it's only 1/4 gate receipts now and the rest TV etc). An extra 1M fans which would double our attendance would bring in what 15m? Enough to buy another year of Ervin Santana?
But, doesn't Kansas City have a history of drawing large crowds? I wasn't there (too young), but I understand that the Royals were heavily supported during the Ewing Kauffman days. Isn't that potential still there?

The Chiefs are heavily supported when winning. Sporting Kansas City is being supported heavily (they are winning). Shouldn't Royals see an increase, as well?

Before you say, "baseball is an anomaly" or something like that.. just know that I would counter that with "kansas city is an anomaly". KC supports the hell out of their teams when the team looks like they give a shit.
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Old 08-06-2013, 08:10 AM   #8855
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The problem Duncan is that we ahve an atrocious local cable deal. 20M. Rangers and Tigers have something like 80M deals. We're screwed until 2020.
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Old 08-06-2013, 08:11 AM   #8856
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RockChalk View Post
Spitballing about Wednesday...

If Davis can't pitch, which I'm assuming he won't (rightfully so, given the circumstances), does Duffy get the call up? Dutton mentioned in a tweet that it would possibly go to Duff, so that got me a little bit excited inside my pants
Davis' brother's funeral is scheduled for this week. Wade is out. Duffy is scheduled to pitch in Omaha on Wednesday. Could be a good match. If not, I fully expect to see Will Smith get the call.
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Old 08-06-2013, 08:11 AM   #8857
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But, doesn't Kansas City have a history of drawing large crowds? I wasn't there (too young), but I understand that the Royals were heavily supported during the Ewing Kauffman days. Isn't that potential still there?

The Chiefs are heavily supported when winning. Sporting Kansas City is being supported heavily (they are winning). Shouldn't Royals see an increase, as well?

Before you say, "baseball is an anomaly" or something like that.. just know that I would counter that with "kansas city is an anomaly". KC supports the hell out of their teams when the team looks like they give a shit.
The crowds will be there this weekend. I think they had 21k+ last night. I expect there will be closer to 25k tonight with Shields on the mound and considering last night's ass beating
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Old 08-06-2013, 08:12 AM   #8858
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Originally Posted by ChiTown View Post
Davis' brother's funeral is scheduled for this week. Wade is out. Duffy is scheduled to pitch in Omaha on Wednesday. Could be a good match. If not, I fully expect to see Will Smith get the call.
I'm just thinking it's "win now" and who better for Duffy to face than the shit lineup Minnesota is throwing out?
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Old 08-06-2013, 08:23 AM   #8859
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The problem Duncan is that we ahve an atrocious local cable deal. 20M. Rangers and Tigers have something like 80M deals. We're screwed until 2020.
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Old 08-06-2013, 08:25 AM   #8860
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The problem Duncan is that we ahve an atrocious local cable deal. 20M. Rangers and Tigers have something like 80M deals. We're screwed until 2020.
Every team will see an increase in TV money over the offseason. Something like $20-22 million per team. That's from the shared TV deal and independent of the local revenue, at least as I understand it.

Basically, $600 million more in the pot for player salaries starting this offseason. Could create a REALLY charged environment if more teams take after the Dodgers.

Local TV deal sucks and limits KC quite a bit, but improved stadium revenues and better national TV money should allow KC to increase payroll.

Whether Glass actually does it? Who knows.
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Old 08-06-2013, 08:28 AM   #8861
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Old 08-06-2013, 08:30 AM   #8862
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Old 08-06-2013, 08:33 AM   #8863
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Any chance the Royals can renegotiate the TV deal? With the ratings they've seen the $20mil per season over the next 7 years is an atrocious deal.
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Old 08-06-2013, 08:36 AM   #8864
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I don't know, but I'm guessing its either Delmon Young or Alex Gordon.
Has to be Alex given the POY designation. Although I guess Young did too.
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Old 08-06-2013, 08:37 AM   #8865
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Any chance the Royals can renegotiate the TV deal? With the ratings they've seen the $20mil per season over the next 7 years is an atrocious deal.
No, it's locked in until EOY 2019.
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