Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Lounge

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-12-2012, 11:56 PM  
Rain Man Rain Man is online now
No known superpowers
 
Rain Man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: In A World Few See
Casino cash: $9133
VARSITY
The NFL, the Talent Pool, and Long-Term Expansion: A Short Essay

In professional sports, one of the issues that we hear a lot regarding expansion is that "it dilutes the talent pool". We hear that Babe Ruth had to face the top pitchers every day, and that in the 1950s NFL, the 32nd best quarterback never made a team, much less started.

I've always thought this too, but tonight I started thinking about it, and I think that whole premise is wrong.

People always think about the number of teams and players when this discussion arises, but that's only half the equation. The other half of the equation is the talent pool from which the team draws. If we have 32 football teams being created from a population of 1 million people, those teams won't be as strong as if we have 32 team being created from a population of 100 million people.

So let's look at the number of teams that we've had over time, and the population from which they drew their rosters. Let's start on the two ends of the spectrum.

In the 1920 season, the league that became the NFL fielded 13 teams. (Actually, 14 teams are in the records, but one team only played one game so I'm excluding them.) The population of the United States at that time was about 106 million, so each team drew from a population of about 8.2 million people.

Now look at the year 2010. We had 32 teams, and they were drawn from a population of about 309 million. Therefore, each team drew from a population of about 9.6 million people. (Ignore the fact that this includes men and women and old people and stuff, just to keep it simple. Let's also ignore roster sizes, since we're really only talking about starters.)

This means that modern teams are pulling from a larger talent pool than their 1920 predecessors. In other words, it's harder to make an NFL roster as a starter now than it was in 1920 when we had only 13 teams. Ostensibly, this means that the talent level is a bit higher.

Let's look at these ratios by decade.

Code:
Year	Population	Teams	Population Per Team
1920	106,021,537	13	8,155,503
1930	123,202,624	11	11,200,239
1940	132,164,569	10	13,216,457
1950	151,325,798	13	11,640,446
1960	179,323,175	21	8,539,199
1970	203,302,031	26	7,819,309
1980	226,542,199	28	8,090,793
1990	248,709,873	28	8,882,495
2000	281,421,906	31	9,078,126
2010	308,745,538	32	9,648,298
What we see is that the most competitive time to become an NFL starter was in 1940, when each team drew from a talent pool of 13.2 million. The easiest time to become an NFL starter was in 1970, when each team drew from a talent pool of 7.8 million.

If we average the ratios over each decade, we end up with an average talent pool of 9.62 million people per team, which is almost exactly the current ratio. Therefore, the fact that we have 32 teams right now means that the league's expansion has merely kept pace with long-term growth. They aren't overexpanding and they aren't underexpanding.

So Conclusion #1 is: having 32 teams does not mean that we see watered-down talent compared to past decades. We're seeing exactly the same talent level that we've averaged over the past century.


But what does this mean for the future?

Well, let's look at population projections and see if the NFL should add new teams as the population grows.

Using an average talent pool of 9.627 million people per team to keep our on-field talent consistent, we see that new teams should be added each decade as the American population grows, as shown below.

Code:
Year	Population	Teams	Population Per Team
1920	106,021,537	13	8,155,503
1930	123,202,624	11	11,200,239
1940	132,164,569	10	13,216,457
1950	151,325,798	13	11,640,446
1960	179,323,175	21	8,539,199
1970	203,302,031	26	7,819,309
1980	226,542,199	28	8,090,793
1990	248,709,873	28	8,882,495
2000	281,421,906	31	9,078,126
2010	308,745,538	32	9,648,298

2020	341,387,000	35	9,627,086
2030	373,504,000	39	9,627,086
2040	405,655,000	42	9,627,086
2050	439,010,000	46	9,627,086


Conclusion #2: To keep the talent level consistent, we should add 3 teams by 2020, 7 teams by 2030, 10 teams by 2040, and 14 teams by 2050.


Now, where should those teams go?

No authoritative body develops state-level population projections for every state, so I cheated a little bit. I took the state populations in 2000 and 2010, and applied that growth rate to each subsequent decade. This allowed me to develop projections of the population of each state for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050.

I then lumped the states (and Puerto Rico) into 16 regions to better account for regional fan bases. This was kind of arbitrary, but I don't think I'd get much argument. For each of the sixteen regions, I then calculated the number of current teams and the number of teams that the region should have based on population, and added teams to the areas that were most underrepresented. This model therefore takes into account the number of teams already present, the current population, and population growth trends.

Conclusion #3. A proper expansion of the NFL should be as follows:

2020 - Add three teams, one each in:

California - Los Angeles (duh)

The Great Plains (OK, KS, NE, SD, ND) - Oklahoma City is the largest metro area in the region

Texas - San Antonio is up.


2030 - Add four teams, one each in:

Texas - It should be Fort Worth, but given their proximity to Dallas, I think Austin would be the next city in line.

The desert SW (NV, UT, AZ, NM) - Las Vegas is the largest city without a team

The Atlantic South (NC, SC, GA) - Raleigh is the largest city without a team.

The deep South (AR, AL, MS, LA) - Birmingham is the largest city with a team


2040 - Add three teams, one each in:

The Coastal Pacific (AK, HI, WA, OR) - Portland is an obvious one based on size.

California - Riverside is the largest metro area without a team.

The Atlantic South (NC, SC, GA) - Yep, another one. Columbia, SC, barely beats out Greensboro, NC for this coveted spot.


2050 - Add four more teams, one each in:

Texas - Yes, another one. Texas will have five teams, with the newest one in Fort Worth. If that's too close to Dallas, next up would be El Paso. However, I think Fort Worth gets it at this point.

The desert SW (NV, UT, AZ, NM) - It's time for the mighty Mormons of Salt Lake to get a team.

The Atlantic South (NC, SC, GA) - Believe it or not. This area is growing. Greensboro gets this team.

The Tropical South (FL, Puerto Rico) - San Juan, Puerto Rico, would be first in line. If you think the team must be in a state and not a territory, then it would go to Orlando, but I think San Juan gets it.

If you don't think that Puerto Rico's population should be included since it's not a state, the last team would go NOT to the Tropical South, but up north in New England, where it would likely be awarded to Providence, Rhode Island. But I think San Juan gets it.

So over the next 40 years, we would add 14 new teams in:

Los Angeles
Oklahoma City
San Antonio
Austin
Las Vegas
Raleigh
Birmingham
Portland
Riverside
Columbia, SC
Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
Greensboro
San Juan, PR


What do you think about this future?

Last edited by Rain Man; 12-13-2012 at 12:32 AM..
Posts: 77,631
Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2012, 12:01 AM   #2
something cooler something cooler is offline
come to play
 
something cooler's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2012
Casino cash: $5000
No shot at a team in Omaha?
Posts: 2,244
something cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitelli
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2012, 12:01 AM   #3
something cooler something cooler is offline
come to play
 
something cooler's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2012
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Argo View Post
No shot at a team in Omaha Omaha?
Fixed my post
Posts: 2,244
something cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitellisomething cooler 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitelli
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2012, 12:02 AM   #4
Bump Bump is offline
DMVP
 
Bump's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2007
Casino cash: $5000
we dun gunna run outta resources before the world populates another 3 fold.
Posts: 11,752
Bump has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Bump has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Bump has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Bump has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Bump has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Bump has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Bump has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Bump has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Bump has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Bump has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Bump has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2012, 12:04 AM   #5
Rain Man Rain Man is online now
No known superpowers
 
Rain Man's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: In A World Few See
Casino cash: $9133
VARSITY
Quote:
Originally Posted by Argo View Post
No shot at a team in Omaha?
In their region, they'd be in line behind both Oklahoma City and Tulsa, so their odds would be low on a pure demographic basis. Perhaps the p.r. value of having their city yelled 100 times per week would help their cause, though.
__________________
Welcome to NFL Sunday! At 11:00 see Peyton Manning flip off the top rope and clothesline Clay Matthews! At 2:00 Drew Brees will hit Terrell Suggs with a chair! Buy your Andrew Luck jersey and let's get reeeeeady to rummmmmble!
Posts: 77,631
Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2012, 12:05 AM   #6
Discuss Thrower Discuss Thrower is online now
<3 <3 <3 <3 <3
 
Discuss Thrower's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: No, where do YOU live?
Casino cash: $15919
Quote:
Originally Posted by Argo View Post
No shot at a team in Omaha?
Too fat.
__________________

- credit goes to BoneKrusher for the pic

Chiefs 2015 Opponents:
Home: CLE, PIT, CHI, DET, AFC East. Away: BAL, CIN, GB, MIN, AFC South
Chiefs 2016 Opponents:
Home: JAX, TEN, NO, TB, AFC East. Away: HOU, IND, ATL, CAR, AFC North
Chiefs 2017 Opponents:
Home: BUF, MIA, PHI, WSH, AFC North. Away: NE, NYJ, NYG, DAL, AFC South
Posts: 12,734
Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2012, 12:05 AM   #7
Baconeater Baconeater is offline
Ass Monkey
 
Baconeater's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2005
Casino cash: $25550
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man View Post
In their region, they'd be in line behind both Oklahoma City and Tulsa, so their odds would be low on a pure demographic basis. Perhaps the p.r. value of having their city yelled 100 times per week would help their cause, though.
Thanks for ruining my Christmas.
Posts: 53,097
Baconeater has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Baconeater has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Baconeater has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Baconeater has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Baconeater has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Baconeater has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Baconeater has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Baconeater has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Baconeater has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Baconeater has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Baconeater has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2012, 12:09 AM   #8
DeezNutz DeezNutz is offline
PermaBanned
 
DeezNutz's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Jouissance
Casino cash: $8185
Long way of saying that KC still won't draft a QB.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by badgirl View Post
If you met me in person and didn't know who I was you would never guess it was me.
Posts: 46,988
DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2012, 12:09 AM   #9
Buehler445 Buehler445 is offline
Supporter
 
Buehler445's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Scott City KS
Casino cash: $14878
does that mean more boobs?

Posts: 22,508
Buehler445 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Buehler445 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Buehler445 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Buehler445 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Buehler445 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Buehler445 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Buehler445 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Buehler445 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Buehler445 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Buehler445 is obviously part of the inner Circle.Buehler445 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2012, 12:12 AM   #10
Rain Man Rain Man is online now
No known superpowers
 
Rain Man's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: In A World Few See
Casino cash: $9133
VARSITY
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buehler445 View Post
does that mean more boobs?
I would hazard a guess that the San Juan cheerleader squad would be worth checking out. Probably Las Vegas, too.
__________________
Welcome to NFL Sunday! At 11:00 see Peyton Manning flip off the top rope and clothesline Clay Matthews! At 2:00 Drew Brees will hit Terrell Suggs with a chair! Buy your Andrew Luck jersey and let's get reeeeeady to rummmmmble!
Posts: 77,631
Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2012, 12:29 AM   #11
Count Alex's Wins Count Alex's Wins is offline
ALEX. HOW CAN THIS BE.
 
Count Alex's Wins's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2002
Casino cash: $33394
Forth Worth can't support an NFL team. No one will go to the games. They're all Cowboys fans.

Your best bet is definitely El Paso.

I'm also curious to see the number of college football players divided by the number of NFL teams. This would give us a far better indicator of the talent pool. IMO.

Has that grown at the same rate as the general population? If not, isn't there a hole in your theory? The NFL isn't drawing players from the general population. It's drawing from the college players for the most part. DI and DII mostly if I'm not mistaken.
__________________
Posts: 171,106
Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2012, 12:32 AM   #12
Count Alex's Wins Count Alex's Wins is offline
ALEX. HOW CAN THIS BE.
 
Count Alex's Wins's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2002
Casino cash: $33394
You are going to draw fans from Mexico, New Mexico and West Texas with a team in El Paso.

But is there a reason you haven't considered Albuquerque? Just population size?
__________________
Posts: 171,106
Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.Count Alex's Wins is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2012, 12:34 AM   #13
AussieChiefsFan AussieChiefsFan is offline
Mayday .... All Day
 
AussieChiefsFan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Sydney, Australia
Casino cash: $7660
Team from vegas/nevada would be interesting.
__________________
2013 Adopt-A-Chief: Sean "The Beard" McGrath
Posts: 12,313
AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2012, 12:36 AM   #14
Rain Man Rain Man is online now
No known superpowers
 
Rain Man's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: In A World Few See
Casino cash: $9133
VARSITY
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Forth Worth can't support an NFL team. No one will go to the games. They're all Cowboys fans.

Your best bet is definitely El Paso.

I'm also curious to see the number of college football players divided by the number of NFL teams. This would give us a far better indicator of the talent pool. IMO.

Has that grown at the same rate as the general population? If not, isn't there a hole in your theory? The NFL isn't drawing players from the general population. It's drawing from the college players for the most part. DI and DII mostly if I'm not mistaken.
Interesting point.

The college players are drawn from the high school ranks, and I suspect that those expand with populations. New high schools are built all the time.

With colleges, you may be right in that the number of colleges doesn't expand as fast as the population. I'm not sure. But at the same time there are a lot of colleges out there, so it seems like there's capacity to increase the talent pool that's pretty thin at the DII and DIII levels, which would effectively proxy an increase in the number of college teams.

So yeah, it's a bottleneck, but I'm not sure that it's enough of one to materially affect the analysis. Feel free to refute, though.
__________________
Welcome to NFL Sunday! At 11:00 see Peyton Manning flip off the top rope and clothesline Clay Matthews! At 2:00 Drew Brees will hit Terrell Suggs with a chair! Buy your Andrew Luck jersey and let's get reeeeeady to rummmmmble!
Posts: 77,631
Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2012, 12:38 AM   #15
Rain Man Rain Man is online now
No known superpowers
 
Rain Man's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: In A World Few See
Casino cash: $9133
VARSITY
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
You are going to draw fans from Mexico, New Mexico and West Texas with a team in El Paso.

But is there a reason you haven't considered Albuquerque? Just population size?
Yeah, Albuquerque couldn't compete with Vegas or Salt Lake City or even Tucson. It's smaller than all of those.

I could defer on Fort Worth and go with El Paso. I wasn't sure if they would embrace their own team or just all stay Cowboys fans. I guess the stadium is between the two cities, isn't it?
__________________
Welcome to NFL Sunday! At 11:00 see Peyton Manning flip off the top rope and clothesline Clay Matthews! At 2:00 Drew Brees will hit Terrell Suggs with a chair! Buy your Andrew Luck jersey and let's get reeeeeady to rummmmmble!
Posts: 77,631
Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:49 PM.


This is a test for a client's site.
A new website that shows member-created construction site listings that need fill or have excess fill. Dirt Monkey @ https://DirtMonkey.net
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.