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Old 12-15-2012, 03:16 PM  
O.city O.city is offline
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2013 Free agency

Thought we might get a thread together to start the convo about this. Who would you look at bringing in? Got this off ESPN.

NFL free agency has historically been a great example of lemon economics. Don't think citrus -- think used cars. The basic theory says that if the original owner would even allow the player (or car) to be purchased, it greatly diminishes the product. It's an information disconnect, and the original owner knows more. The eyes squint and the brow furrows after a look under the hood: "So -- why don't you want it?"

Same with the NFL, historically. Players have such a short shelf life because of injuries that to even get to free agency at all carries a stench. We know Mario Williams has had a great career, but surely Houston knew something the market didn't. In this league, it's always been that, if you like a player, you wrap him up. A change of system could be akin to dumping the new sports car for a minivan as the family changes, but everyone seems to agree: The original owner got the best years of the car, just as the Texans got the best years of Williams. Free agency is one part money, two parts hope.

At least, that used to be the case. Things might be shifting. The salary-cap reality after the last CBA should allow a few more players teams truly don't want to lose to hit free agency. And we're going to see dividends. You can knock Williams, but what about Vincent Jackson? What about Brandon Carr?

Below I've listed not a ranking of the top free agents but rather, a list of players who have perhaps the most on the line down the stretch in terms of their future market values; I've also added some possible fits for them. (So don't mistake this for a "top free agents" list. And the team fits for each player are possibilities, not predictions.)

1. Joe Flacco | QB | Current team: Baltimore Ravens

He has started 77 of 77 possible NFL games, carries a 53-24 record as a starter, has a 98-55 career TD-INT ratio and won't turn 28 until January. So how is Flacco going to become an unrestricted free agent at a position where even the Romo-coaster won't be subjected to such an indignity? How high his ceiling extends is clearly a question, and the rest of the regular season will dictate dollars. Baltimore dumped offensive coordinator Cam Cameron and has the worst defense of Flacco's tenure. It all points to: "It's on you, Joe."

Fit: Most would be shocked if he were anywhere but Baltimore next season.

2. Mike Wallace | WR | Current team: Pittsburgh Steelers

[+] EnlargeMike Wallace
Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesMike Wallace needs to impress in the remainder of the season to increase his market value.

He'll be an unrestricted free agent, and Wallace needs to finish strong. He's in the midst of his worst NFL season in terms of efficiency, has been the third-best WR on his own team a season after he was openly considered maybe the best in the game and has admitted he can "lose focus" at times. Not exactly the best selling points for his free-agency brochure. Wallace needs to treat the end of this season like an audition.

Fit: Mark Sanchez loses excuses if his numbers stay flat with Wallace around in 2013.

3. Ryan Clady | OT | Current team: Denver Broncos

He has never missed a start 77 games into his NFL career and is among the top five left tackles in the game, and the QB he protects, Peyton Manning, gets the ball out so quickly that he's a joy to block for. So what does Clady have to play for? He's an unrestricted free agent and the top left tackle available, which means he could be headed for about $50 million in guarantees if he's fully healthy. In a league of players paranoid about health, Clady could be excused for playing in bubble wrap.

Fit: Denver should make it work, but Arizona should offer stadium naming rights.

4. Greg Jennings | WR | Current team: Green Bay Packers

At 29, Jennings has never caught fewer than 45 passes in a season. So far in 2012, he has just 17 catches and has been sidelined for most of the season with an abdominal injury. With James Jones, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb already around -- not to mention Jermichael Finley -- Green Bay likely won't beat out big offers for Jennings. But he needs to get back on the field and show something to draw interest. Now that he's practicing in full pads, we're about to gauge his market.

Fit: Miami makes a lot of sense, but keep an eye on Detroit, which suddenly has legit questions about who will be No. 2 behind Calvin Johnson. Jennings grew up a Lions fan in Michigan.

5. Wes Welker | WR | Current team: New England Patriots

You could argue that teammate Sebastian Vollmer has more cash to play for (and likely will land the bigger deal), and you could argue that Welker is a creation of the system, an extended handoff for Tom Brady. But that the New England offense lost Rob Gronkowski and hasn't skipped a beat is a credit to Welker, who will reach 120-plus catches this season for the third time in his career. And, as an unrestricted free agent, he might be ready to prove he's more than a system creation.

Fit: Clearly, it's New England, but Welker would be really interesting in Denver, Dallas or even Washington.

6. Cliff Avril | DE | Current team: Detroit Lions

He reportedly turned down three years and $30 million to accept the franchise tender of $10.6 and play for a bigger deal, but Avril needs to finish really strong if he wants big money. He has 9.5 sacks, but he benefits from great play elsewhere on the Detroit D-line, and he has just 18 hurries this season, per Pro Football Focus.

Fit: Even with Jason Babin, Jacksonville could use another 4-3 DE and could afford Avril.

7. Aqib Talib | CB | Current team: New England Patriots

He has a ton of talent and a history of off-field problems, but if Talib can finish strong for the Patriots, not only does he create a market for himself with New England but he could draw interest from all over the league. This is a guy who is quite literally playing for a job as an unrestricted free agent at age 26.

Fit: Even less total money might be more appealing if the offer is from the Patriots.

8. Jairus Byrd | S | Current team: Buffalo Bills

He's not a star, but maybe he should be. Byrd has a Pro Bowl under his belt, as well as a season when he led the NFL in interceptions. Plus, Pro Football Focus has him rated as the top cover safety in the NFL. He'll be an unrestricted free agent in a market that's short on impact at the safety position. Byrd also will have a history of good health; if he finishes this season, he'll have played in 48 consecutive games. If he stays healthy, he'll be in line for a huge deal.

Fit: Dallas could desperately use a safety who covers this well. But so could Detroit, New Orleans, the Jets and maybe even Pittsburgh.

9. Danny Amendola | WR | Current team: St. Louis Rams

Dangerously close to attaining the "fragile" label, Amendola could be back for the last few weeks, and he will want to be able to walk into unrestricted free agency with full health. He caught 85 passes in 2010 and profiles as an unbearded Wes Welker. If Amendola can stay healthy, St. Louis has every reason to keep him around. But, as lemon economics teaches us, if the Rams don't make a big push to retain him, it'll be instructive for the market as a whole. The last few games matter.

Fit: St. Louis is a great fit, but what if he becomes a cheaper replacement for Welker in New England?

[+] EnlargeSebastian Vollmer
Icon SMISebastian Vollmer has played well this season and could get major money -- from the Pats or others.

10. Sebastian Vollmer | OT | Current team: New England Patriots

The Patriots have their future at left tackle in Nate Solder and might not be willing to go big on a deal to keep Vollmer, a right tackle who missed the bulk of 2011 to injury. But if he finishes strong -- and New England opts to devote free-agency resources elsewhere -- Vollmer could get big money after what has been a very good season.

Fits: Indy, Chicago, Arizona and Dallas should all pick up the phone.

The next 10

11. Randy Starks | DT | Current team: Miami Dolphins

You don't find many good defensive tackles available in free agency, but Starks qualifies, and he has missed just one start since Week 1 in 2009. Carolina would be a good fit.

12. Michael Bennett | DE | Current team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

He has 9.0 sacks, and cracking double digits could get this unrestricted free agent some extra scratch. New Orleans would be a good system fit.

13. Dashon Goldson | S | Current team: San Francisco 49ers

How much can the Niners spend to keep this defense together? They might let Goldson go, and the 2011 Pro Bowl participant will get looks. Carolina should call.

14. Reggie Bush | RB | Current team: Miami Dolphins

This isn't a ranking of best free agents, but Bush belongs here because, if he can stay healthy for a few more games, it'll be the difference between multiple bids versus just hoping to land somewhere. Almost any offense can use a player with his diversity of skills, and he's underrated as an inside runner. How about a change-of-pace complement to Trent Richardson in Cleveland?

15. Victor Cruz | WR | Current team: New York Giants

He's a restricted free agent, and the Giants won't let him go anywhere. But how he finishes, and his end-of-season health status, could help determine in what manner the Giants compensate him going forward.

16. Branden Albert | OT | Current team: Kansas City Chiefs

He's no star, but he might be the third- or fourth-best tackle on the market, and he's been healthy throughout his career, although recent back issues have slowed him down. A strong finish without questions about his back will improve his market.

Dwayne Bowe
AP Photo/AJ MastDwayne Bowe won't play this week, and his market value is very much up in the air.

17. Dwayne Bowe | WR | Current team: Kansas City Chiefs

He's way down on this list because he likely won't be back in the lineup this season. He has a lot on the line, however, because the play of Jon Baldwin could help determine how much K.C. is willing to offer to keep him around.

18. Jake Long | OT | Current team: Miami Dolphins

He might be headed for injured reserve, which is a shame because it could mean the end of his tenure in Miami. The development of rookie Jonathan Martin could make the perennial Pro Bowler expendable. If he's fully healthy, his phone will be ringing.

19. Steven Jackson | RB | Current team: St. Louis Rams

If he finishes the season healthy, there could be a market for Jackson and the Rams could bring him back. If he gets hurt, he might have to move on. How about working in with Doug Martin in Tampa when LeGarrette Blount moves on?

20. Chris Houston | CB | Current team: Detroit Lions

He might be the best available corner on the market, and the Lions could choose to franchise him, given the state of their secondary. But if they want to franchise elsewhere, if Houston can finish well (and healthy), he'll have a robust market.

Five more

21. Andy Levitre | G | Current team: Buffalo Bills

22. Henry Melton | DT | Current team: Chicago Bears

23. Brian Hartline | WR | Current team: Miami Dolphins

24. Erin Henderson | LB | Current team: Minnesota Vikings

25. Jermon Bushrod | OT |Current team: New Orleans Saints
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Old 12-15-2012, 03:18 PM   #2
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Albert and Bowe are criminally underrated on that list.
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Old 12-15-2012, 03:19 PM   #3
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I would target either of the S's on this list, resign Bowe and Albert, and possibly look at bringing in Mike Wallace.
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Old 12-15-2012, 03:20 PM   #4
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I think Mike Wallace would be a perfect fit for Stafford and Megatron in Detroit.
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Old 12-15-2012, 03:20 PM   #5
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Pioli: "Let's save money by letting Bowe walk and signing Brian Hartline"
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Old 12-15-2012, 03:21 PM   #6
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Byrd could help cure a lot of this defense's ills.
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Old 12-15-2012, 03:23 PM   #7
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Byrd could help cure a lot of this defense's ills.
Yes, he's actually the biggest target we should have.


We won't, but we should.


And for those who don't want to resign Albert or think anything ill of the oline.

Best blocking teams

1. Tennessee Titans (2.65 yards before contact)

There is no question Tennessee's blocking has improved markedly in 2012. The biggest issue last year was the play of center Eugene Amano, but his replacement by unknown free agent Fernando Velasco has made a huge difference. Add in the high quality support they've been getting, in particular from TE Taylor Thompson, and it's not surprising that Chris Johnson has cracked 1,000 yards already -- even though he's not gaining many yards after contact (see table below).

2. Kansas City Chiefs (2.37 yards before contact)
Although the Chiefs have been in disarray, no one should question their talent level outside the quarterback position. In particular, they have a quality offensive line that has even coped with having to move their best run-blocker (Ryan Lilja) to center after incumbent Rodney Hudson was injured. The pickup of Eric Winston has been a sound investment, and watching the Texans struggle again on the right side makes you wonder whether general manager Rick Smith would in hindsight change the decision to release him.

3. Buffalo Bills (2.18 yards before contact)

Although they were better at the start of the season, this is a team that can run block when it wants to. Obviously the problem here is that it seems Chan Gailey would rather go down throwing than win by running. Those fantasy owners of C.J. Spiller must be pulling out as much hair as actual Bills fans at the misuse of his talent. He's third in the NFL, averaging 3.81 yards after contact, so why he has carried only 14, 14 and seven times the past three weeks is beyond me. Angst aside, the pleasant surprise here is the play of both tackles; Cordy Glenn and Chris Hairston have performed well and, interestingly, have been better in run blocking than in pass protection.

T-4. Minnesota Vikings (2.11 yards before contact)

While this line is playing well, with center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt being extremely good run-blockers, it could be vastly improved if the coaches would only give Geoff Schwartz more than a few snaps per game in relief of right guard Brandon Fusco per game. It's one of those bizarre situations in which the team prefers someone who's clearly not very good. Both Jerome Felton and Rhett Ellison have dominated linebackers, so it's a real shame they have had to split snaps.

T-4. San Francisco 49ers (2.11 yards before contact)

The 49ers have the best overall offensive line this season, as every starter has a legitimate Pro Bowl shot. It's difficult to single players out, but Joe Staley's run blocking has been the best of any tackle in the league. Their only downside is that on the odd occasions when they do struggle, they seem to do so en masse, as they did against the Vikings and the New York Giants. They can't afford one of those types of games in the playoffs.

Worst blocking teams

32. Pittsburgh Steelers (0.91 yards before contact)

Want to know how important this statistic is? Well, the difference for a running back with 250 carries running behind the Titans' blocking and the Steelers' blocking is just shy of 450 yards. Only Willie Colon (who's now injured) has blocked well this season, and the support from the fullbacks and tight ends has been nonexistent.

31. Arizona Cardinals (1.02 yards before contact)

We know they can't pass block, but now we know they can't run block, either. Blame some of this on the personnel department, which, for reasons beyond our comprehension, made perennially poor RG Adam Snyder the No. 1 target in free agency. Obviously, the slew of injuries exacerbated the situation, but this line would have been bad this season regardless.

30. Carolina Panthers (1.04 yards before contact)

Trying to run out of the shotgun (as the Panthers seem to enjoy doing so much) does nothing to help their poor blocking situation, but that's only part of the problem. They chose to let Schwartz, Travelle Wharton and Mackenzy Bernadeau go without having a coherent backup plan, and then saw virtually everyone's performance regress. GM Marty Hurney has already been one casualty of this failure; will others follow?
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Old 12-15-2012, 03:24 PM   #8
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The Ravens would be stupid to dump Flacco.

They are not gonna be anywhere near the top QBs and it's hard in this league to find winning QB play.

They dump him they risk a lot.
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Old 12-15-2012, 03:25 PM   #9
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The Ravens would be stupid to dump Flacco.

They are not gonna be anywhere near the top QBs and it's hard in this league to find winning QB play.

They dump him they risk a lot.
Unless they fell in love with one of the guys in the draft and wanted to trade all the way up, there's no way you don't resign him.
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Old 12-15-2012, 03:26 PM   #10
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He has a lot on the line, however, because the play of Jon Baldwin could help determine how much K.C. is willing to offer to keep him around.




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Old 12-15-2012, 03:31 PM   #11
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The Ravens would be stupid to dump Flacco.

They are not gonna be anywhere near the top QBs and it's hard in this league to find winning QB play.

They dump him they risk a lot.
Yep. Peehoili stupid.
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Old 12-15-2012, 03:31 PM   #12
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I would target either of the S's on this list, resign Bowe and Albert, and possibly look at bringing in Mike Wallace.
Yup.
Man, I hope Bowe, and Albert Both come back. They should lock him up now, and are idiots for letting him get this close to Unrestricted Free Agency.
We have the dough. We should pay him a little more than market value and not have to worry about a LT for the next 5 years, but I have zero faith in this team doing what is necessary anymore.
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Old 12-15-2012, 03:33 PM   #13
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Albert should be signed, now.


Bowe could then be franchised again or signed.

We absolutely need to target some speed and quickness at WR, which is why I like Wallace.
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Old 12-15-2012, 03:34 PM   #14
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If we could get Wallace, Jennings or Welker to pair with Bowe and Geno, it would be absolutely amazing.*


*WILL NEVER HAPPEN
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Old 12-15-2012, 03:36 PM   #15
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