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Old 01-17-2013, 10:07 PM  
SNR SNR is offline
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*****OFFICIAL Draft Geno Smith Thread*****

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Old 02-26-2013, 02:32 PM   #4891
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college football reference?
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Old 02-26-2013, 02:33 PM   #4892
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Old 02-26-2013, 02:33 PM   #4893
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BossChief View Post
Pro football reference show games and games started.
I think they are looking for college stats... or does it have college stats?
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Old 02-26-2013, 02:34 PM   #4894
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KCrockaholic View Post
If that's the case McShay should've spent more time watching the Geno film and not the Geno combine. The combine should not be the "be-all end-all" on a prospect.

People who completely change their minds based on combine numbers obviously didn't do their homework in the first place.

Had Geno gone out and ran a 4.9, and looked terrible in the drills, I'd still be wanting him #1. Because what I saw on the game tape is what matters.

The only time the combine numbers should come into play is if a scout has the same grade on 2 different players. He will then use the combine numbers as the edge factor for said player.
I've been telling everyone who would listen (off this site) that Geno is the top guy based on his FILM and ability, but that the experts wouldn't start moving him up until AFTER he ran a 4.6 and showed as the best passer with the best combination of arm strength and accuracy at the combine.

Here it comes. Kiper will follow McShay shortly. So it will kill the favored true fan argument of "You can't take Geno because he's a REACH! The experts don't even have him projected in round 1!!!!"
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Old 02-26-2013, 02:34 PM   #4895
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BossChief View Post
Pro football reference show games and games started.
College football reference doesn't, though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KCrockaholic View Post
college football reference?
Doesn't show games vs. games started.
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Old 02-26-2013, 02:36 PM   #4896
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Every website I've looked at.....doesn't have Games Started.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/players/183954
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Old 02-26-2013, 02:37 PM   #4897
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post

Here it comes. Kiper will follow McShay shortly. So it will kill the favored true fan argument of "You can't take Geno because he's a REACH! The experts don't even have him projected in round 1!!!!"
Listening to the true fans switch on Geno all of a sudden will be hilarious. It's already started actually, right after the combine.
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Old 02-26-2013, 02:38 PM   #4898
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KCrockaholic View Post
Listening to the true fans switch on Geno all of a sudden will be hilarious. It's already started actually, right after the combine.
Where?
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Old 02-26-2013, 02:39 PM   #4899
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Originally Posted by O.city View Post
Where?
Chief Concerns FB page had a few after the combine.
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Old 02-26-2013, 02:43 PM   #4900
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Originally Posted by KCrockaholic View Post
Chief Concerns FB page had a few after the combine.
Hell THIS forum had had a few already.

Right after the combine, Direckshun and Dane jumped aboard.

and we welcome them with open arms.
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Old 02-26-2013, 02:46 PM   #4901
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Old 02-26-2013, 02:53 PM   #4902
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Ok....so I thought about starting a thread for this....but I wasn't 100% sure. I'll post it here.....if everyone thinks that it's valuable enough for it's own thread....I'll do it.

So I was looking around for what the "experts" were saying about Matt Stafford this far in advance before the draft. And I found this article (http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/pos...tafford-debate). This is from the 1st half of the article.

Quote:
The experts are hedging. The fans are sweating. The team is making clear it is considering all of its options.

There are 47 days remaining until the 2009 NFL draft, giving the Detroit Lions some 1,125 hours before they are required to make the No. 1 overall pick. The Lions might need every minute of that span, especially if their internal discussion at all reflects the raging public debate on Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford.

A classically built, strong-armed quarterback, Stafford has not yet caught on as the consensus No. 1 pick. ESPN.com draft analyst Todd McShay, for example, said recently the Lions face a "nightmare" decision because Stafford is "not mentally ready" to take on the pressures of being the No. 1 overall pick. McShay said that scouts from at least 10 teams agreed with that assessment and added: "I just don't feel great about building my organization around him."

NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock told a Detroit radio station that "there are some things about him that bother me," and even Stafford's biggest supporter advocates with a negative argument. Yes, Mel Kiper Jr. said the Lions should select Stafford primarily because "there is nobody else to take."

Even fans are getting into the act. On the day the Lions announced they were playing host to Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith, Jim of Cincinnati wrote:

Matthew Stafford? Why are people thinking he is a good fit for an 0-16 team? I have seen Stafford play. He gets rattled easily. His arm is ok but his leadership skills lack. Next year they can get a much better QB. This year they need to fill in the holes on defense and on the line.

Why all of this generalist hate against Stafford, who by all accounts offers fine character as well as the draft's strongest arm?
So....typical bullshit that we're hearing right now. Not worth the #1 overall pick....blah blah blah.

What I found really interesting was the 2nd half of the article....which is this.

Quote:
Our friends at ESPN Research have developed a method for fleshing out the debate with statistical analysis. Using time-honored performance standards to predict future success for "blue-chip" quarterbacks, the formula placed Stafford between Akili Smith and Cade McNown in a category reserved for busts.

Does this mean Stafford is guaranteed to crash and burn? Of course not. But this evaluation documents in specific fashion the previously ill-defined criticisms of Stafford, helping to explain why there is so much disagreement about him with the draft little more than six weeks away.

The formula takes into account three statistics: Career starts, completion percentage and touchdown-interception ratio. The theory is that experience, accuracy and production versus mistakes can provide substantive indicators for college quarterbacks.
Formula Explanation
ESPN Research developed this formula to measure quarterbacks relative to a baseline completion percentage of 60 and a touchdown-interception ratio of 2.25. The multipliers allow each figure to have equal weight with career starts, which provides an important measure of experience.

The total score is the sum of the three adjusted figures.

The separate parameters for BCS and non-BCS quarterbacks help level the statistical playing field. They are based on the assumption that NFL-caliber quarterbacks playing against non-BCS opponents are going to have inflated numbers.

For those mathematically inclined -- it took me 10 readings to get it after having nightmare flashbacks to eighth-grade algebra -- below is the formula itself. (Note: This is the updated, corrected version. The formula in the original post was incomplete. Thanks to SwampThing86 and a few others for the heads-up.)

For BCS quarterbacks
(Career Starts x 0.5) + [(Career completion pct. - 60)x5] +[(Career touchdown-INT ratio - 2.25)x10]

For non-BCS quarterbacks
(Career Starts x 0.5) + [(Career completion pct. - 60)x2.5] + [(Career touchdown-INT Ratio - 2.25)x5]

(For a complete explanation of the formula, see the text box on your right.)

To test the formula, ESPN Research plugged in the 31 quarterbacks taken in the first round over the past 12 drafts, dating back to 1997. The results are below.

You'll see the quarterbacks broken into three categories. If their college statistics translated into a value of 20 or more, there was a strong likelihood for success. (Alex Smith and Tim Couch notwithstanding.) A value between 1 and 19 essentially meant "iffy."
I decided to do some research and throw together the college stats of the QBs drafted since 2009 and see where they fall. I'll put that in my next post.
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Old 02-26-2013, 02:57 PM   #4903
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Here was there list as of 2009.

Group I: Strong likelihood of success
Player School Draft year Score
Matt Leinart USC 2006 64.04
Philip Rivers NC State 2004 48.44
Tim Couch Kentucky 1999 47.64
Alex Smith Utah 2005 44.88
Aaron Rodgers California 2005 40.58
Peyton Manning Tennessee 1998 39.47
Jason Campbell Auburn 2005 38.75
Byron Leftwich Marshall 2003 36.39
Ben Roethlisberger Miami (Ohio) 2004 33.85
Chad Pennington Marshall 2000 33.53
Mark Sanchez USC 2009 32.63
Daunte Culpepper Central Florida 1999 30
David Carr Fresno State 2002 23.97
Joe Flacco Delaware 2008 23.92
Eli Manning Ole Miss 2004 23.14
Donovan McNabb Syracuse 1999 21.62

Group II: Hit-or-Miss
Player School Draft year Score
Brady Quinn Notre Dame 2007 18.93
JaMarcus Russell LSU 2007 18.64
Rex Grossman Florida 2003 18.39
Vince Young Texas 2006 18.21
Carson Palmer USC 2003 16.35
Matt Ryan Boston College 2008 9.14
Patrick Ramsey Tulane 2002 9.06
J.P. Losman Tulane 2004 7.86
Jay Cutler Vanderbilt 2006 2.39
Josh Freeman Kansas State 2009 1.94

Group III: Busts
Player School Draft year Score
Akili Smith Oregon 1999 0
Matthew Stafford Georgia 2009 -4.55
Cade McNown UCLA 1999 -6.41
Joey Harrington Oregon 2002 -6.85
Michael Vick Virginia Tech 2001 -11.32
Ryan Leaf Washington St. 1998 -16.92
Jim Druckenmiller Virginia Tech 1997 -20.25
Kyle Boller California 2003 -50.67
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Old 02-26-2013, 02:57 PM   #4904
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My favorite part is seeing "Next year they can get a much better QB". Oh how true that was.... Not.
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Old 02-26-2013, 02:57 PM   #4905
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My favorite part is seeing "Next year they can get a much better QB". Oh how true that was....
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