Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Ed & Dave Lounge

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-01-2013, 08:00 AM  
MagicHef MagicHef is offline
The Seated Villain
 
MagicHef's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Fort Collins
Casino cash: $266685
Drafting and Developing QBs

Some may remember my earlier thread about DTs and DE/OLBs. This one should be more interesting, due to the QBness of it. I did the same for QBs, using data from PFF to analyse the typical development of a QB as well as the expected return from a draft pick spent on a QB. Here is development:



Pretty steady climb through 12 years. Basically all the ridiculous waves on the right are thanks to Favre.

Here are snaps per year:



I'm a little surprised that rookies take more snaps than any other group.

Here is skill (vertical) vs draft position (horizontal). Blue dots are draft picks, the dark green, light green, white, pink, and red lines are the 90th, 75th, 50th, 25th, and 10th percentile respectively.



Huh. Drafting a QB late looks about the same as picking up a UDFA. This led me to make another chart. I arbitrarily decided that a QB in the 95th percentile was elite, 85th percentile was good, and 50th percentile was average. I then decided to determine the percent likelihood of drafting a QB in each round that fell into each category.



In case that doesn't make sense, I'll explain:

A QB drafted in the first round has a:

17.5% chance of being Elite
37.5% chance of being Good
50% chance of being at least average.

Second round:
0% Elite
6.25% Good
37.5% Average

Third round:
0% Elite
13.3% Good
53.3% Average

Fourth round:
0% Elite
8.3% Good
41.7% Average

Fifth round:
0% Elite
0% Good
14.3% Average

Sixth Round:
0% Elite
0% Good
50% Average

Seventh Round:
3.2% Elite (Tom Brady)
3.2% Good
45.2% Average

UDFA
0% Elite
7.7% Good
73.1% Average

My conclusion: If you do not draft a QB in the first round, there is no point drafting one at all. Just pick up a UDFA.

Last edited by MagicHef; 02-01-2013 at 08:37 AM..
Posts: 4,650
MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2013, 08:03 AM   #2
Dayze Dayze is offline
Resident Glue Sniffer
 
Dayze's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Overland Park
Casino cash: $1240631
interesting.

hmm.
__________________
Life is 99% inspiration, 1% Perspiration, and 1% Attention to Detial.
Posts: 25,393
Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2013, 08:06 AM   #3
CaliforniaChief CaliforniaChief is offline
Stanley Cup Champions!
 
CaliforniaChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: So Cal
Casino cash: $7728776
Wasn't Brady a 6th rounder?
__________________
"Chiefs fans arenít having it." -Jason Whitlock
Posts: 12,164
CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2013, 08:07 AM   #4
CaliforniaChief CaliforniaChief is offline
Stanley Cup Champions!
 
CaliforniaChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: So Cal
Casino cash: $7728776
That said, pretty damning numbers for the true fan.
__________________
"Chiefs fans arenít having it." -Jason Whitlock
Posts: 12,164
CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.CaliforniaChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2013, 08:08 AM   #5
Deberg_1990 Deberg_1990 is offline
MVP
 
Deberg_1990's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: San Antonio Tx.
Casino cash: $180543
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief View Post
Wasn't Brady a 6th rounder?
__________________
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning:

Matt once made a very nice play in Seattle where he spun away from a pass rusher and hit Bowe off his back foot for a first down.

One of the best plays Matt has ever made.
Posts: 49,374
Deberg_1990 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Deberg_1990 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Deberg_1990 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Deberg_1990 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Deberg_1990 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Deberg_1990 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Deberg_1990 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Deberg_1990 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Deberg_1990 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Deberg_1990 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.Deberg_1990 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2013, 08:10 AM   #6
MagicHef MagicHef is offline
The Seated Villain
 
MagicHef's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Fort Collins
Casino cash: $266685
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief View Post
Wasn't Brady a 6th rounder?
Yeah, I went by draft pick # (Brady was 199) then put the first 32 in round 1, etc. Compensatory selections pushed that pick back, basically.
Posts: 4,650
MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2013, 08:11 AM   #7
AussieChiefsFan AussieChiefsFan is offline
Mayday .... All Day
 
AussieChiefsFan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Sydney, Australia
Casino cash: $26059599
Fascinating.
__________________
2013 Adopt-A-Chief: Sean "The Beard" McGrath
Posts: 12,234
AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2013, 08:18 AM   #8
O.city O.city is offline
MVP
 
O.city's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2009
Casino cash: $75603
The best place/chance to get a franchise Qb is the first round.

Who knew?

This is new info that has never been said on CP.


Non sarcastic though, great work Magic. Ok with you if I spam this on Twitter to the masses?
Posts: 29,095
O.city has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.O.city has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.O.city has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.O.city has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.O.city has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.O.city has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.O.city has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.O.city has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.O.city has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.O.city has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.O.city has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2013, 08:20 AM   #9
MagicHef MagicHef is offline
The Seated Villain
 
MagicHef's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Fort Collins
Casino cash: $266685
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.city View Post
The best place/chance to get a franchise Qb is the first round.

Who knew?

This is new info that has never been said on CP.


Non sarcastic though, great work Magic. Ok with you if I spam this on Twitter to the masses?
Go ahead
Posts: 4,650
MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2013, 08:31 AM   #10
AussieChiefsFan AussieChiefsFan is offline
Mayday .... All Day
 
AussieChiefsFan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Sydney, Australia
Casino cash: $26059599
Probably should show this to some facebookers too.
__________________
2013 Adopt-A-Chief: Sean "The Beard" McGrath
Posts: 12,234
AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2013, 08:38 AM   #11
MagicHef MagicHef is offline
The Seated Villain
 
MagicHef's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Fort Collins
Casino cash: $266685
Oops, some of the percentages were a bit off. It's fixed now.
Posts: 4,650
MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.MagicHef would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2013, 08:57 AM   #12
ChiefGator ChiefGator is offline
Cautiously optimistic
 
ChiefGator's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Northcentral Florida
Casino cash: $36832
Awesome! Thanks for doing this!
__________________
- Mark
Posts: 2,891
ChiefGator has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ChiefGator has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ChiefGator has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ChiefGator has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ChiefGator has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ChiefGator has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ChiefGator has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ChiefGator has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ChiefGator has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ChiefGator has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ChiefGator has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2013, 09:29 AM   #13
Coogs Coogs is offline
MVP
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Northern Kansas
Casino cash: $84913
So Brees (2nd round) is just average to good?
Posts: 17,621
Coogs has disabled reputation
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2013, 09:35 AM   #14
Pestilence Pestilence is offline
Want a ride?
 
Pestilence's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Nor-Cal
Casino cash: $77617624
Skipped and just read this.

Quote:
My conclusion: If you do not draft a QB in the first round, there is no point drafting one at all. Just pick up a UDFA.
Posts: 43,723
Pestilence is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pestilence is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pestilence is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pestilence is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pestilence is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pestilence is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pestilence is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pestilence is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pestilence is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pestilence is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pestilence is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2013, 09:38 AM   #15
Three7s Three7s is offline
Veteran
 

Join Date: Nov 2008
Casino cash: $57402
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coogs View Post
So Brees (2nd round) is just average to good?
Don't forget Joe Montana, whom was drafted in the 3rd round I believe.
__________________
E:\AlexGordon1-1.jpg
Posts: 3,579
Three7s Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Three7s Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Three7s Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Three7s Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Three7s Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Three7s Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Three7s Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Three7s Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Three7s Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Three7s Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.Three7s Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:42 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.