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Old 02-01-2013, 08:00 AM  
MagicHef MagicHef is offline
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Drafting and Developing QBs

Some may remember my earlier thread about DTs and DE/OLBs. This one should be more interesting, due to the QBness of it. I did the same for QBs, using data from PFF to analyse the typical development of a QB as well as the expected return from a draft pick spent on a QB. Here is development:



Pretty steady climb through 12 years. Basically all the ridiculous waves on the right are thanks to Favre.

Here are snaps per year:



I'm a little surprised that rookies take more snaps than any other group.

Here is skill (vertical) vs draft position (horizontal). Blue dots are draft picks, the dark green, light green, white, pink, and red lines are the 90th, 75th, 50th, 25th, and 10th percentile respectively.



Huh. Drafting a QB late looks about the same as picking up a UDFA. This led me to make another chart. I arbitrarily decided that a QB in the 95th percentile was elite, 85th percentile was good, and 50th percentile was average. I then decided to determine the percent likelihood of drafting a QB in each round that fell into each category.



In case that doesn't make sense, I'll explain:

A QB drafted in the first round has a:

17.5% chance of being Elite
37.5% chance of being Good
50% chance of being at least average.

Second round:
0% Elite
6.25% Good
37.5% Average

Third round:
0% Elite
13.3% Good
53.3% Average

Fourth round:
0% Elite
8.3% Good
41.7% Average

Fifth round:
0% Elite
0% Good
14.3% Average

Sixth Round:
0% Elite
0% Good
50% Average

Seventh Round:
3.2% Elite (Tom Brady)
3.2% Good
45.2% Average

UDFA
0% Elite
7.7% Good
73.1% Average

My conclusion: If you do not draft a QB in the first round, there is no point drafting one at all. Just pick up a UDFA.

Last edited by MagicHef; 02-01-2013 at 08:37 AM..
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Old 02-01-2013, 08:03 AM   #2
Dayze Dayze is offline
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interesting.

hmm.
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Old 02-01-2013, 08:06 AM   #3
CaliforniaChief CaliforniaChief is offline
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Wasn't Brady a 6th rounder?
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Old 02-01-2013, 08:07 AM   #4
CaliforniaChief CaliforniaChief is offline
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That said, pretty damning numbers for the true fan.
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Old 02-01-2013, 08:08 AM   #5
Deberg_1990 Deberg_1990 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief View Post
Wasn't Brady a 6th rounder?
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Old 02-01-2013, 08:10 AM   #6
MagicHef MagicHef is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief View Post
Wasn't Brady a 6th rounder?
Yeah, I went by draft pick # (Brady was 199) then put the first 32 in round 1, etc. Compensatory selections pushed that pick back, basically.
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Old 02-01-2013, 08:11 AM   #7
AussieChiefsFan AussieChiefsFan is offline
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Fascinating.
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Old 02-01-2013, 08:18 AM   #8
O.city O.city is offline
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The best place/chance to get a franchise Qb is the first round.

Who knew?

This is new info that has never been said on CP.


Non sarcastic though, great work Magic. Ok with you if I spam this on Twitter to the masses?
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Old 02-01-2013, 08:20 AM   #9
MagicHef MagicHef is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by O.city View Post
The best place/chance to get a franchise Qb is the first round.

Who knew?

This is new info that has never been said on CP.


Non sarcastic though, great work Magic. Ok with you if I spam this on Twitter to the masses?
Go ahead
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Old 02-01-2013, 08:31 AM   #10
AussieChiefsFan AussieChiefsFan is offline
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Probably should show this to some facebookers too.
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Old 02-01-2013, 08:38 AM   #11
MagicHef MagicHef is offline
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Oops, some of the percentages were a bit off. It's fixed now.
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Old 02-01-2013, 08:57 AM   #12
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Old 02-01-2013, 09:29 AM   #13
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So Brees (2nd round) is just average to good?
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Old 02-01-2013, 09:35 AM   #14
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Skipped and just read this.

Quote:
My conclusion: If you do not draft a QB in the first round, there is no point drafting one at all. Just pick up a UDFA.
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Old 02-01-2013, 09:38 AM   #15
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So Brees (2nd round) is just average to good?
Don't forget Joe Montana, whom was drafted in the 3rd round I believe.
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