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Old 05-29-2015, 06:47 PM  
HonestChieffan HonestChieffan is offline
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Hillary should outline her economic vision

The other day in South Carolina, Hillary slipped into her southern drawl long enough to tell her mostly black audience that she and Obama see most issues the same way and they generally agree on the direction the country should take over the next 4 years



News like this begs her to fill in the gaps and explain how she will get us out of the Obama slump:


(CNSNews.com) – Initial estimates of positive economic growth in the first quarter of 2015 have now turned negative.

The U.S. economy actually shrank in the first quarter of 2015 as real gross domestic product (GDP) declined at an annual rate of 0.7 percent, according to the Obama administration’s second look at the numbers.

The 0.7 percent decline in first-quarter real GDP was revised from the previously reported gain of 0.2 percent, which was the advance estimate put out at the end of April by the Commerce Department and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Real GDP is adjusted for inflation and represents the value of the production of goods and services in the United States.

Real GDP of -0.7 percent in the first (January-March) quarter was lower than the real GDP estimate of 2.2 percent in the fourth (October-December) quarter of 2014. It was also lower than the third quarter 2014 estimate of 5.0 percent.

“The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from exports (imports increased more), nonresidential fixed investment (purchases of nonresidential structures and equipment and software), and state and local government spending that were partly offset by positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment,” states BEA. “Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.”

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Old 05-29-2015, 06:52 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by HonestChieffan View Post
The other say in South Carolina, Hillary slipped into her southern drawl long enough to tell her mostly black audience that she and Obama see most issues the same way and they generally agree on the direction the country should take over the next 4 years



News like this begs her to fill in the gaps and explain how she will get us out of the Obama slump:


(CNSNews.com) – Initial estimates of positive economic growth in the first quarter of 2015 have now turned negative.

The U.S. economy actually shrank in the first quarter of 2015 as real gross domestic product (GDP) declined at an annual rate of 0.7 percent, according to the Obama administration’s second look at the numbers.

The 0.7 percent decline in first-quarter real GDP was revised from the previously reported gain of 0.2 percent, which was the advance estimate put out at the end of April by the Commerce Department and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Real GDP is adjusted for inflation and represents the value of the production of goods and services in the United States.

Real GDP of -0.7 percent in the first (January-March) quarter was lower than the real GDP estimate of 2.2 percent in the fourth (October-December) quarter of 2014. It was also lower than the third quarter 2014 estimate of 5.0 percent.

“The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from exports (imports increased more), nonresidential fixed investment (purchases of nonresidential structures and equipment and software), and state and local government spending that were partly offset by positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment,” states BEA. “Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.”
These things have reasons outside of Obama. Unless he is responsible for the weather.

What is the (R) plan? If I may?
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Old 05-29-2015, 06:56 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by eDave View Post
These things have reasons outside of Obama. Unless he is responsible for the weather.

What is the (R) plan? If I may?

May be 15 or 16 at this point but none have yet come out as having a shared vision with Obama.
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Old 05-29-2015, 07:04 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eDave View Post
These things have reasons outside of Obama. Unless he is responsible for the weather.

What is the (R) plan? If I may?
Q1 GDP is usually the lowest of the entire year due to seasonality. I was waiting for some dumbass to trot out this awful argument.

http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/05...ter-recession/

Quote:
Every year we have a recession in the first quarter and every year people get hysterical. And every year the economy rebounds into summer and the hysterics roll back their estimate cuts and their calls for economic demise.

Putting aside why economy-watchers are so easily fooled or confused after so many episodes of the same show, it’s worth understanding why this occurs.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s US economist Ethan Harris explains the quirks in the data that lead to this annual freak-out (emphasis mine):
The economy has a major seasonal recession in every 1Q and some of the secondary indictors that go into GDP are not seasonally adjusted…
Work at the Philadelphia Fed shows that over the past 30 years GDP growth has averaged 1.9% in 1Q and 3.0% in the rest of the year, suggesting about a percentage point downward bias in the quarter
…The bottom-line from all of this is that bad seasonals probably sliced about 1.5% off of growth in 1Q and added about 0.5% to other quarters of the year…

…the pattern is not just a matter of a few years. Moreover, the story is also a lot more credible if there is a good narrative behind it. Here is that narrative.

Every year there is a major drop in GDP in the first quarter as the holiday season ends and severe weather kicks in. How big is this recession? The government does not publish unadjusted data for real GDP, but there is unadjusted data for nominal GDP through 2006. Looking back over the 10 year period from 1997 to 2006 the seasonal drop in 1Q is huge and varies significantly from year to year. It typically plunges 10% on an unadjusted basis, requiring a huge upward adjustment of 14.9 to 21.1pp to correct the seasonal drop (Chart 1). Even a small error in this large and variable adjustment could create serious mismeasurement when we drill down to real GDP. The adjustment challenge for 1Q GDP is much higher than for other quarters and for other data. In the other three quarters of the year the seasonal adjustment lowers growth by about 5pp—or a third as much. And for payrolls the 1Q adjustment is only about half of that for GDP. Big adjustments create room for big errors.
Harris & Co go into an explanation that involves the various ingredients that go into a GDP measurement.

Many of the statistics are clean as they are kept and tabulated by a single party. But many are messy and prone to a lot of volatility (noise). Even worse – only some of the quarterly GDP recipe consists of seasonally-adjusted data, measured in year-over-year percentage change terms. Some of the inputs are not seasonally-adjusted and are, thus, apples-to-oranges. The combined effect of all these “odds and ends” in the report is a sort of mass confusion and the resulting poorly drawn conclusions as people attempt to make sense of it.

You can see the difference between seasonally-adjusted and raw data in the chart below:



And then on top of all of the mismatches in the statistics and the wide swings in forecasts, the weather really and truly does suck every year in Q1 – perhaps more than popular expectations allow for. It is a fact that the majority of the Northeast’s population was unable to leave the house for weeks on end throughout January and February during each of the last two years. Boston got 900 feet of snow. New Yorkers were not out shopping for cars or putting bids on houses in the 10-degree climate. No one in New Jersey was embarking on remodeling projects in an ice storm. They had a snow event so bad in Atlanta two winters ago it caused a 24-hour traffic jam, complete with abandoned cars and people sleeping through the night in a CVS. California had some of the wackiest weather in its wacky-weather history.

You’re welcome to dismiss it if you’d like.

So what to do? The suggestion is made that one should pay more attention to the monthly reports that offer more visibility and measurement consistency – like ISM manufacturing, new housing starts, vehicle sales and non-farm payrolls – for a true gauge of what’s really happening in the economy.
And then next year, when the annual Q1 recession happens again and we’re tearing our hair out in March/April, keep in mind that you’ve seen this show before. There’s a good chance it’s a rerun.
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Old 05-29-2015, 07:09 PM   #5
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I don't think Hilary wants to talk about anything of substance yet. Why would she?
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Old 05-29-2015, 07:10 PM   #6
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I don't think Hilary wants to talk about anything of substance yet. Why would she?
Rope-a-dope.
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Old 05-29-2015, 07:24 PM   #7
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Maybe eDave is onto something. Obama can't control the weather and the recovery is Bush's fault.
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Old 05-29-2015, 07:27 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by HonestChieffan View Post
Maybe eDave is onto something. Obama can't control the weather and the recovery is Bush's fault.
The economy is much better. No?
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Old 05-29-2015, 08:56 PM   #9
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She told blacks she's gonna give em the same O-conomy that Barry delivered? Phew, I bet they felt relieved.
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Old 05-29-2015, 09:02 PM   #10
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She told blacks she's gonna give em the same O-conomy that Barry delivered? Phew, I bet they felt relieved.
The Oconomys better, no?
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Old 05-29-2015, 09:05 PM   #11
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The Oconomys better, no?
It's been great for the 1% (so I've heard from liberals) and terrible for blacks (something you don't hear from liberals). Is that what black voters wanted to hear from her?
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Old 05-29-2015, 11:36 PM   #12
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They pretty much told her to shut up, and with good reason.
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Old 05-30-2015, 05:15 AM   #13
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They pretty much told her to shut up, and with good reason.

Where is she on the super secret trade deal?

The Unions are threatening to sit out her race because of the trade deal. Can she afford that loss of support?

Will she support the Keystone ?

Will she respond to ISIS with force?

She cannot stay silent forever.
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Old 05-30-2015, 06:46 AM   #14
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It appears so far her plan is if you donate to her foundation she'll take care of you.
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Old 05-30-2015, 08:36 AM
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Old 05-30-2015, 08:38 AM   #15
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The economy is much better. No?
No. Not in terms of growth, at least. During each president's first 6 years:

Bush 16.1%

Obama's 11.7%.

Both got to start their presidencies with shitty economies that were no fault of their own. Bush was handed the bursting dot com bubble and, shortly after taking office, the aftermath of 9/11. Obama was handed the housing/finance meltdown. Regardless of who you blame or excuses you want to make, the economy was better in terms of growth during the Bush run.

I compared the two based on their first 6 years for an apples to apples comparison. The numbers don't change much but here's the total economic growth (through March of this year, although I don't think the most recent numbers are included) under both presidents:

Bush 15.0% in 96 months

Obama 11.8% in 75 months

So IF Obama's final two years result in growth of 2.9% from where we started the current year, his total run will match Bush's. There's a chance for this to happen, but even if it does, we can't say at this point that the Obama economy has been better than Bush's (at least on the basis of growth).

*Source of Real GDP numbers by year*
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